Final Word: Trades, tactics, tips, Round 14

It’s fair to say this six to seven week period during the State of Origin series will make or break many a Supercoach’s season.&nbsp;



Managing dwindling trade and boost numbers along with the need to field some good numbers in the second bye round in Rd-17 and also set up your team for the run home makes it a delicate juggling act.&nbsp;



No amount of planning can account for good or bad luck, and player injuries and health and restings will also play a huge part in Supercoach scoring in this critical period.&nbsp;



I don’t watch any games on Channel Nine mainly because I don’t like ads while the game is going. 



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Pre-game, halftime and after the game sure go for it. I understand the game has to be paid for by advertsisers.&nbsp;



Anyway so I’m watching State of Origin 1 and Channel Nine bring up this stat I’ve never seen before which was how many metres per minute the players were running in the game.&nbsp;



What caught my eye was just how much quicker the game was on the players in State of Origin.&nbsp;



The average for an NRL game was 80 and most of the players on the graphics were up around 110+.&nbsp;



That’s like a 38% increase in intensity to a normal NRL game (the best rugby league competition in the world).&nbsp;



Plenty of factors contribute to this including minimal stoppages because of altered refereeing interpretations, probably 34 of the top 45-50 players in the game playing on the field at the one time and of course the mystique and legend of State of Origin football.&nbsp;



Anyway, how does this relate to Supercoach you might be wondering? 



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Well it got me thinking that these players like Munster, Cleary, Tedesco and Cook who are punching out 80 minutes are playing the equivalent of a 100+ minute NRL game.&nbsp;



This clearly has a cumulative effect and hence why they are a massive chance of being rested or having reduced minutes in club games.&nbsp;



With only two spots to fill in the FLB, 5/8 and HFB positions in Supercoach does it therefore make your secondary player so much more important over this month and a half period?



For instance, let’s say you have held Tedesco or maybe Cook. Most Supercoaches up there will have a Munster or Cleary and most likely both.&nbsp;



What back up do you have? Because there is a huge difference between a Dylan Brown and a Blake Taaffe, a Nicho Hynes and a Lachlan Ilias.&nbsp;



I think you’re probably catching my drift by now. Depth in those positions with only two spots available and the best scoring players affected by Origin is going to be critical. 



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Strategy </h2>



It’s about now or probably more so a week or so ago I started to question why was I so aggressive with my trades and boosts early in the season.&nbsp;



Sitting in 1,325th place I’m starting to question whether I have the arsenal at my disposal to make up the 768 point deficit that currently exists between my team and the leading team in the comp, Roosters Pack.&nbsp;



400 points deficit to a spot in the top 100 seems measurably more achievable.&nbsp;



Either way I’m going to go down swinging I think. Before trading this round I have 15 trades left and a boost. 



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I have 7 players for the Round-17 bye but that is more realistically like 4 because I am counting Peoples (might not even make Souths side), Papenhuyzen (likely to play Origin 3) and Sasagi (highly likely I’ll trade out of my side before 17).&nbsp;



The maximum trades I can use prior to Rd-17 is 9, so the absolute most players I could field in Rd-17 is probably 13-15.&nbsp;



That’d be quite acceptable and in fact I think I’ll aim for more like 11-12 and hopefully savee an extra trade or two for the run home.&nbsp;



To a large extent my value proposition strategy has worked in gaining me a valuable team.&nbsp;



My current team value is $13,781,200, one of the higher valued teams I’ve come across. Now it remains to be seen whether all this value can be converted into plenty of points in the run home. 



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Trades </h2>



Trades I’m considering this week are bringing in Ezra Mam, Ronaldo Mulitalo and maybe even Brandon Smith for Sasagi, Tuipulotu and Cotter. 



I’m not sold on the last trade so I will certainly let things play out over the weekend and be dynamic and flexible with my trades.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">PODs &amp; Super PODS </h2>



Here’s the players I’ve identified as PODs (Point of Difference players – less than 10% owned) and Super PODS (less than 2% owned) that should be on your radar.&nbsp;



I’ve listed them in ranking order of who I believe is the best to take the risk on: 



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">PODs (My top-5 ranked) </h2>



1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Cam McInnes – Shockingly only 4.7% own still. Surely that changes this week? He’s a great play for Rd-17 and a keeper in my eyes. &nbsp;



2.&nbsp;&nbsp; Ronaldo Multialo – The Sharks draw is juicy as and Mulitalo outside Talakai should be in for a big finish to the season. He comes with some risk as he is reliant on attacking points, but he’s likely coming into my side.&nbsp;



3.&nbsp;&nbsp; Brandon Smith – A good handcuff if you are keeping Harry Grant or even a solid trade-in for Grant or Cotter during the Origin period. You won’t get him any cheaper and he is due.&nbsp;



4.&nbsp;&nbsp; David Klemmer – A rock Solid option if you are looking to upgrade a Max King or trade out a Payne Haas who is likely to get rested a fair bit over the Origin period. No attacking upside except offloads and great base.&nbsp;



5.&nbsp;&nbsp; Xavier Savage – Canberra are playing well. Savage is risky but he is fast and skilful.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Super PODs (Top-1) </h2>



1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Maika Sivo – Has a proven pedigree and I just roughly worked out he has averaged over 105+ Supercoach points in his three return games in reserve grade. Huge Super POD!



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">CAPTAIN</h2>



VC might be irrelevant and the C surely must go on Nicho Hynes playing against a Warriors side in disarray.&nbsp;



I expect a spirited performance from the Warriors but unless you were prepared to take a flyer on Talakai or Mulitalo then Hynes has to be your man. 



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">TOPSPORT BETs of the WEEK</h2>



Please Gamble Responsibly, 18+ only.



2022 – Starting with $1000 bank &nbsp;



Current Balance &#8211; $500 (-$500)



Round-13 Recap



Duck egg for round-13. Had live tickets running into either Davey or Tuipolotou to score but neither did.&nbsp;



Round-14 Best Bets (Odds courtesy of TopSport) – Total Bets $50



Multi



Dragons +12.5/Raiders +4.5/Sharks/Eels @ $5.20 (TopUp)x $40



To score a try Multi’s&nbsp;



A Brimson/S Talakai/E Mam @ $29 (TopUp) x $10

Final Word: Trades, tactics, tips, Round 14

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