Data analysis: Are leading SuperCoaches bye ready?


<p>With the byes approaching and our teams starting to look close to finished, it is a good time to check in on how the leading coaches are looking from a bye and premium set up point of view.</p>



<p>This should help with your planning (watch out for round 12!) and give you a sense of how your team compares to the leading coaches.</p>



<p>This is based on team data up to the end of round nine for the top 1,000 teams (which sadly, doesn’t include my team either).</p>



<p>I am counting players as a “premium / keeper” if they are averaging 90 for a forward / defender, 105 for a midfielder and 100 for a ruck.</p>



<p>I am also counting “scoring players” if they played in round nine. With this data I can then form a consensus top 1,000 team based on selection numbers and number of premiums.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Bye structures:</strong></h2>



<p>The table below shows the average number of players and points that the top teams would field in each bye round with their current teams.</p>



<p>We can see a considerable weighting towards players with the round 12 bye. This is therefore the greatest chance to pick up points against the competition.</p>



<p>Of course, this will probably level out a bit as teams continue to make trades but should be reassuring nonetheless if half your team has the round 12 bye like mine does.</p>



<p>This represents extra motivation to move out underperforming players (e.g. Whitfield, Butters or Coniglio) or rookies that have hit their ceiling price if they have the round 12 bye.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Byes</strong></td><td><strong>Rd 12</strong></td><td><strong>Rd 13</strong></td><td><strong>Rd 14</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Avg. no. of Scoring Players</td><td>16.8</td><td>19.1</td><td>20.8</td></tr><tr><td>Avg. no. Premium / Keeper Players</td><td>11.2</td><td>11.3</td><td>11.4</td></tr><tr><td>Sum of scoring players points avg.</td><td>1649.0</td><td>1860.6</td><td>1948.9</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Premium Count:</strong></h2>



<p>In terms of team structure, we can see the count per line of premium players for our top teams.</p>



<ul><li>Defences likely to have five premium players plus Nick Daicos</li><li>Midfields have about seven premium players and one non-scoring rookie</li><li>Rucks have two premiums (Preuss counts as a premium due to a 110 avg)</li><li>Forward line with three premiums (Coniglio, Butters and Nic Martin not counted)</li></ul>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Structure</strong></td><td><strong>DEF</strong></td><td><strong>MID</strong></td><td><strong>RUC</strong></td><td><strong>FWD</strong></td><td><strong>Total</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Scoring Players Avg</td><td>7.5</td><td>10.2</td><td>2.9</td><td>7.7</td><td>28.4</td></tr><tr><td>Premium / Keeper Avg</td><td>4.9</td><td>6.8</td><td>1.9</td><td>3.3</td><td>17.0</td></tr><tr><td>Avg Points</td><td>618.9</td><td>908.2</td><td>223.5</td><td>573.9</td><td>2324.4</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>With the forward line generally speaking the least complete, it looms as the key point of difference moving forward. Do you stick with Coniglio and Butters or trade them out? Who do you even trade them to – Liberatore, Dusty, English, Treloar?</p>



<p>The Ruck setup also looks to play a key part in how the rest of the season plays out with the top teams generally having Preuss plus either Witts or Gawn. Witts and Preuss have given coaches greatly discounted scoring up to now, but can they keep it up? Do you jump early and trade across to English or Darcy at the first sign of slowing down?</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Generic Top 1000 team:</strong></h2>



<p>Based on the above table, we can form a consensus top 1,000 team based on the most selected premiums (five premium defenders, seven premium midfielders, two premium rucks and three premium forwards) and non-premiums. Note for dual position players, this will use their current field position as selected by our top 1,000 teams.</p>



<p>What we have is a pretty enviable team with some good rookie options for further upgrading. The top teams are unlikely to be fielding any low scoring rookies, with the likes of N. Daicos and N. Martin to be upgraded in the coming weeks. These teams will be fully upgraded at some point across the byes – can you keep up with them?</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player Name</strong></td><td><strong>Avg</strong></td><td></td><td><strong>Player Name</strong></td><td><strong>Avg</strong></td></tr><tr><td>George Hewett</td><td>118</td><td></td><td>Lachie Neale</td><td>136</td></tr><tr><td>James Sicily</td><td>115</td><td></td><td>Jack Macrae</td><td>124</td></tr><tr><td>Sam Docherty</td><td>114</td><td></td><td>Clayton Oliver</td><td>121</td></tr><tr><td>Jayden Short</td><td>109</td><td></td><td>Patrick Cripps</td><td>120</td></tr><tr><td>Jack Crisp</td><td>105</td><td></td><td>Touk Miller</td><td>120</td></tr><tr><td>Nick Daicos</td><td>81</td><td></td><td>Christian Petracca</td><td>117</td></tr><tr><td>Patrick McCartin</td><td>68</td><td></td><td>Jack Steele</td><td>110</td></tr><tr><td>Sam De Koning</td><td>62</td><td></td><td>Greg Clark</td><td>83</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>Jack Carroll</td><td>61</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>Maurice Rioli</td><td>57</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>Robbie McComb</td><td>54</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td><strong>Player Name</strong></td><td><strong>Avg</strong></td><td></td><td><strong>Player Name</strong></td><td><strong>Avg</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Josh Dunkley</td><td>114</td><td></td><td>Jarrod Witts</td><td>119</td></tr><tr><td>Isaac Heeney</td><td>107</td><td></td><td>Braydon Preuss</td><td>110</td></tr><tr><td>Will Brodie</td><td>101</td><td></td><td>Sam Hayes</td><td>75</td></tr><tr><td>Zak Butters</td><td>89</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Stephen Coniglio</td><td>88</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Nic Martin</td><td>87</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Cooper Hamilton</td><td>61</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Malcolm Rosas</td><td>54</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table></figure>


Data analysis: Are leading SuperCoaches bye ready?

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