Squad Breakdown: Newcastle Knights SC roster analysis

The big question Shane, can&#8217;t say for certain, but I think he plays 50-55, the Watson role of last year. Barnett a massive concern, I think he needs 65+ to be relevant.
&#8211; TW

Hey guys, how many minutes will Kurt Mann get? Will he give Randell a breather. I’m a bit worried having Barnett lurking on the bench

The Newcastle Knights enter the 2022 season with a new-look spine that’ll likely see them play an adjusted brand of footy this season.



What is that brand exactly?



We’ll find out soon enough, but with a relatively inexperienced halves pairing and hooker, I’m banking it revolves around Kalyn Ponga getting his hands on the ball a lot more.



That can only be a good thing.



With uncertainty around the brand of footy they’ll play, it makes them a tough side to assess in regards to SuperCoach credentials, while at the same time, their back five and forward pack are very similar to last season.



<a id="QNtGBxXMS3NDHcgN9f_N7w" class="gie-single" href="http://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/1336477958" target="_blank" style="color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;" rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'QNtGBxXMS3NDHcgN9f_N7w',sig:'L6hMWSIDVi5wra5BNxiloDuVtK-oaYUtAs5JliyHwVE=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1336477958',caption: true ,tld:'com.au',is360: false })});</script><script src="//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" async=""></script>



They have a tough draw to open the season which isn’t ideal, facing the Roosters (A), Tigers (H), Panthers (A), Sharks (A) and Sea Eagles (H).



With three of four away games to start the season, and three of the top five ranked teams from last year in the first five rounds, things won’t be easy.



With our predicted teams, for SuperCoach purposes we’ve included any players returning from injury/suspension in the first three rounds in the starting line-up.



This combines both the likely starting teams and best 17s, as initial price changes occur after Round 3.



Let’s take a look at the Knights’ SuperCoach prospects to begin the new season.



<a id="H5l2ysomQ3Bd-GY3_Xdptw" class="gie-single" href="http://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/1334240446" target="_blank" style="color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;" rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'H5l2ysomQ3Bd-GY3_Xdptw',sig:'Mcgy0uLocZsO_lTSY6__xxt-bb0MPM-1PARfQMQsBPM=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1334240446',caption: true ,tld:'com.au',is360: false })});</script><script src="//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" async=""></script>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Predicted team</h2>



1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Enari Tuala 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Dominic Young 6. Jake Clifford 7. Adam Clune 8. David Klemmer 9. Chris Randall 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Kurt Mann



Bench: 14. Phoenix Crossland 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Mitchell Barnett 17. Brodie Jones



Injuries/suspensions:&nbsp;Sauaso Sue (suspension, Round 3), Jayden Brailey (Achilles, mid-season), Hymel Hunt (Approx Round 4), Bradman Best



Analysis:&nbsp;Jake Clifford and Adam Clune form a new-look halves pairing.



Jacob Saifiti was the preferred starter to David Klemmer at prop in the backend of last season, this may eventuate again, but I have big Klem starting.



Chris Randall is tipped to replace the injured Jayden Brailey at hooker.



Dominic Young should get a start on the wing with Hymel Hunt injured.



Elsewhere looks pretty set in stone once Sauaso Sue returns from suspension in round 3 and will push for a bench spot.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">&quot;Haven&#39;t seen that many blokes who can do that!&quot; Kalyn Ponga powers through the Sharks line to score an incredible individual try 😲😲😲 <a href="https://t.co/oA0x1hIy6t">pic.twitter.com/oA0x1hIy6t</a>&mdash; SuperCoach NRL (@SuperCoachNRL) <a href="https://twitter.com/SuperCoachNRL/status/1302792676085960704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 7, 2020</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Guns</h2>



Kalyn Ponga $599,900 // FLB // 2021 average: 68.4



I wrote in a little more depth in my Melbourne preview about Teddy/Papy being the pretty clear cut picks at fullback for anyone avoiding Tommy Turbo.



I stand by that, but boy oh boy KP is once again enticing.



Papy is a lock, while you can get Ponga for $170k cheaper than Tedesco if you’re that way inclined.



The draw to start the year is my major deterrent, along with the fact he’s going to have to learn to gel with a new-look spine, this takes time.



However, as mentioned above I think he’ll take on far greater responsibility in the absence of both Mitchell Pearce and Jayden Brailey.



Basically, if the Knights are going to push for anything greater than sneaking into the top 8, he has to.



It could see his SuperCoach game go through the roof.



A few injuries saw him average just 73 minutes last season, so there’s immediately upside there.



One thing to consider is that his average is ever so slightly inflated by 32 points from conversions.



While Jake Clifford is fit, KP won’t be kicking goals.



As tempted as I am and excited by his prospects, it’s a reluctant wait and watch for me.



<a id="VHfXSZI9SNhLbuU5pl21jQ" class="gie-single" href="http://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/1334239367" target="_blank" style="color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;" rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'VHfXSZI9SNhLbuU5pl21jQ',sig:'j5pnb_W7GZi7vShgc3MWhd2TJZ6f9QPMSW-7iIKmyNU=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1334239367',caption: true ,tld:'com.au',is360: false })});</script><script src="//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" async=""></script>



Mitch Barnett $560,700 // 2RF // 2021 average: 71.1



Barnett is an ultra-consistent performer, with attacking upside, and a decent sized ceiling.



Fluctuating minutes under Adam O’Brien don’t help his case.



The loss of Connor Watson should help his game time, however Kurt Mann will likely play a near identical role, so who know what his regular time will be?



What we do know is that when getting the minutes he’s a beast.



He averaged 71 points in 64 minutes at 0.9 points per minute in 2021.



Playing on an edge he was an 80 minute man, however as long as Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Tyson Frizell are fit I think lock will be his spot.



In seven games as starting lock last year he averaged 53.9 minutes, which is inflated a touch by an 80 minute game when injuries hit.



In those games he averaged 55.7 points, and 45.6 points in base.



Note that he only kicked two goals during these games, so no impact was really had as a result.



His attacking upside drops significantly in the middle, so I’ll be avoiding unless we see him getting 60+ minutes (minimum) at lock, or better yet starting on the left edge.



<a id="ARyvCdivQOpBNb-2D4M4lA" class="gie-single" href="http://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/1331746588" target="_blank" style="color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;" rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'ARyvCdivQOpBNb-2D4M4lA',sig:'9QPMYP9dCeV_s5zvAO7ekxQ93E8cDu3ZKv0I6bds8VY=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1331746588',caption: true ,tld:'com.au',is360: false })});</script><script src="//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" async=""></script>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Mid-rangers</h2>



Bradman Best $453,200 // CTW // 2021 average: 51.7



Best is somewhat of a SuperCoach enigma, he scores well when you don’t own him, then hits the skids the second you buy him. Anyone else feeling this?



His ability though and upside is too hard to ignore, and he’s not far from a bumper SuperCoach, I’m talking a 70+ average.



He plays on the left edge which is massive with KP feeding him quality ball, and he has some of the best base stats for a CTW in the game with 32 base last season and 36 base the season prior.



He busts tackles, scores tries, and just looks the package, so I’m a little surprised he only averaged 52 last year.



Go back a season prior and he averaged 62 points per game which I’m expecting to be closer to his mark this season.



His injury history is always a concern, amassing 26 games in the past two years.



At a nice price, he could be worth an early season flyer as a POD.



<a id="csoOg37YRa5XB-T_Ynz4jw" class="gie-single" href="http://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/1236979749" target="_blank" style="color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;" rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'csoOg37YRa5XB-T_Ynz4jw',sig:'XUYMfu-XJLF66i6dWaar3J2TM3Y19ZpCZ8zBnP4q4fs=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1236979749',caption: true ,tld:'com.au',is360: false })});</script><script src="//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" async=""></script>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bargain buys</h2>



Chris Randall // $245,000 // HOK // 2021 average: 38.8



Randall looks set to replace the injured Jayden Brailey, hopefully in an 80 minute role for SuperCoach purposes.



There’s a few decent cheapies around, but he’s certainly among the pick of them.



He played five games last season, but three were under 20 minutes of game time.



He played 73 minutes in another for just 30 points, with 32 in base.



The other, he played 77 minutes, for 81 points, with 54 in base and a try, yes please lad!



I expect him to play close to 80, but even if he played 60 minutes he’s a must-have to start the season and will be a reliable play in 17s early on.



If he plays 60 and punches out 40s we can reconsider starting him and just watch the money flow in.



FANCY A SAME-GAME MULTI? Topsport offer the best in the business, where the market odds ACTUALLY add up. Give it a try, compare to other bookies, and see the difference for yourself!&nbsp;<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.topsport.com.au/?Referrer=SC%20Playbook" target="_blank">Use the code ‘SCPLAYBOOK’ when signing up</a>.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="575" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-NRL-2048x1149-V2-1024x575.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-1953950" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-NRL-2048x1149-V2-1024x575.jpg 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-NRL-2048x1149-V2-300x168.jpg 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-NRL-2048x1149-V2-768x431.jpg 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-NRL-2048x1149-V2-1536x862.jpg 1536w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-NRL-2048x1149-V2-640x359.jpg 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-NRL-2048x1149-V2-1200x673.jpg 1200w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-NRL-2048x1149-V2-800x450.jpg 800w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-NRL-2048x1149-V2.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



Adam Clune // $293,700 // HFB // 2021 ave: 33.5



As mentioned, Clune isn’t locked into a round 1 spot with Phoenix Crossland looming, but he looks the front-runner at this early stage.



Unfortunately at $344k Crossland is probably a little awkwardly priced if named.



As for Clune, well he averaged 33 points last season in 54 minutes per game having come off the bench for the Dragons at stages.



This suggests there’s definite improvement in him, but just how much is there exactly?



$293k is a very awkward price for a bloke not noted as having a SuperCoach relevant skill set.



I’m more than happy to forego him early, then pick him up in round 3 before initial price rises occur if he proves me wrong and starts with a flurry of points.



<a id="vbZQG0AqTC5_taN0NOrwIA" class="gie-single" href="http://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/1342245173" target="_blank" style="color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;" rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'vbZQG0AqTC5_taN0NOrwIA',sig:'5PBg8NAI_zxHxZj1HJjG0k3uNDmnWYBtOnRhpsACA-4=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1342245173',caption: true ,tld:'com.au',is360: false })});</script><script src="//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" async=""></script>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Avoids</h2>



Dane Gagai // $599,700 // CTW // 2021 average: 68.4



I love Gagai as a SuperCoach player having really hit his straps at South Sydney, proving one of the most consistent CTW options available with a decent sized ceiling.



The difference now is that’s he’s not at the most lethal attacking side in the competition.



That I can forgive, but I suspect he’ll play right edge wherein lies the real issue.



For anyone familiar with the site they know how much I rave on about selecting left-side players at the Knights and avoiding right, purely due to Ponga’s vastly stronger ability on the left.



Gagai isn’t locked into the right, but he’s played both edges throughout his career, so I gather Best will stay on his preferred left edge.



Gagai could well become an option at some stage even if on the right, but he’s priced at his peak and I’m happy to watch early.



Others: Tyson Frizell is worth a look, but it’s my personal preference to go left-side players at the Knights.



David Klemmer and Daniel Saifiti may loom as options at some stage of the season as they inevitably do, but I’m not paying that price from round 1 with uncertainty over minutes and output.

Squad Breakdown: Newcastle Knights SC roster analysis

Discussion (2)

Subscriber podcast: Bye planning, when to buy/sell top players

Updated! NRL Round 8 Teams: Supercoach Squad Analysis

The Final Word | Round 7 NRL Supercoach Trades & Captains

Subscriber podcast: Sub 5% owned super PODs + Fifita deep dive