Second-year syndrome: Fact or myth?


<ul><li><strong>PART ONE: <a href="http://13.210.220.211/2020/01/20/part-one-players-of-intrigue-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="2020 Players of Intrigue (opens in a new tab)">2020 Players of Intrigue</a></strong></li><li><strong>CLASSIC: <a href="http://13.210.220.211/squad_analysis/test-team/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Eels starting 17 + player analysis (opens in a new tab)">Eels starting 17 + player analysis</a></strong></li></ul>



<p>So you’ve heard of second-year syndrome in the NRL. </p>



<p>The theory that the first year a gun rookie is exposed to
the NRL they are new and catch teams and coaches off guard. </p>



<p>But come the second season the team of coaches from all clubs have fully analysed their game and coached their players in ways to negate the strengths of the gun rookie resulting in a drop in performance. </p>



<p><em><strong><a href="http://13.210.220.211/subscribe/">Sign up to SC Playbook </a>for detailed pre-season analysis of every top 17 player from every club in the competition  and more + over 200 additional articles once the season kicks off.</strong></em></p>



<p>Well today we’re going to look at the theory in a SuperCoach
light. To do this properly firstly we have to look back a bit before we look
forward. </p>



<p>Please note some of the players we are looking at below may have made their debuts earlier but for the purposes of this SuperCoach analysis we are looking at the first year they became relevant SuperCoach guns. </p>



<p>*<em>Scroll down to the bottom of the page for a key on all SuperCoach relevant abbreviations.</em></p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Xerri-1-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-659" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Xerri-1-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Xerri-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Xerri-1-768x432.jpg 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Xerri-1-640x360.jpg 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Xerri-1-1200x675.jpg 1200w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Xerri-1-800x450.jpg 800w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Xerri-1.jpg 1280w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



<p>Then we will analyse how they faired in their second year. </p>



<p>So as an experiment we have picked six of the best SuperCoach
breakout players in 2017 and 2018 to see how they performed the following year.</p>



<p>Below are the breakout stars of 2018 and how they fared in
2019. </p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class=""><tbody><tr><td>Player</td><td>2018 points</td><td>2018 Ave.</td><td>2019 points</td><td>2019 Ave.</td><td>Ave. +/-</td></tr><tr><td>Kalyn Ponga</td><td>1313</td><td>66</td><td>1365</td><td>68</td><td>+2</td></tr><tr><td>Jamayne Isaako</td><td>1337</td><td>56</td><td>949</td><td>45</td><td>-11</td></tr><tr><td>Jai Arrow</td><td>1352</td><td>64</td><td>1053</td><td>62</td><td>-2</td></tr><tr><td>Matt Lodge</td><td>1269</td><td>53</td><td>1315</td><td>63</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>Shaun Lane</td><td>1303</td><td>54</td><td>1286</td><td>56</td><td>+2</td></tr><tr><td>Reimis Smith</td><td>573</td><td>52</td><td>848</td><td>37</td><td>-15</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p><strong>To note:</strong></p>



<p>&#8211; For Ponga, an increase in SuperCoach points from goal-kicking
helped him slightly better his average PPG despite the failed five-eighth
experiment early in the season. </p>



<p>&#8211; Isaako was the opposite with a significant decrease in SuperCoach points from goals. He dropped from scoring 15.7PPG for goal kicks in 2018 to 9.4PPG in 2019. </p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">You will always remember the day you watched Kalyn Ponga at the 2017 <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NRLAKL9s?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NRLAKL9s</a>!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NRL?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NRL</a> <a href="https://t.co/bu8xUQWnft">pic.twitter.com/bu8xUQWnft</a></p>&mdash; NRL (@NRL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NRL/status/828073461754929152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 5, 2017</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<p>&#8211; Matt Lodge’s increased role and minutes clearly had a lot
to do with his improved average. </p>



<p>&#8211; Reimis Smith dropped significantly which is probably
consistent with the erratic nature of the CTW position for most players.</p>



<p>Below are the breakout stars of 2017 and how they fared in 2018. </p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class=""><tbody><tr><td>Player</td><td>2017 points</td><td>2017 Ave.</td><td>2018 points</td><td>2018 Ave.</td><td>Ave. +/-</td></tr><tr><td>Angus Crichton</td><td>1510</td><td>69</td><td>1521</td><td>69</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Esan Marsters</td><td>693</td><td>53</td><td>1458</td><td>61</td><td>+8</td></tr><tr><td>Coen Hess</td><td>1331</td><td>58</td><td>1345</td><td>58</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Nick Cotric</td><td>1189</td><td>50</td><td>1157</td><td>48</td><td>-2</td></tr><tr><td>Lachlan Fitzgibbon</td><td>807</td><td>58</td><td>1293</td><td>62</td><td>+4</td></tr><tr><td>Dylan Edwards</td><td>806</td><td>58</td><td>405</td><td>51</td><td>-7</td></tr><tr><td>Matt Eisenhuth</td><td>623</td><td>57</td><td>1297</td><td>54</td><td>-3</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p><strong>To note:</strong></p>



<p>&#8211; Esan Marsters gained the goal-kicking duties for the Tigers in 2018 hence the sharp increase in average.</p>



<p><strong>IN SUMMARY</strong></p>



<p>So what can we deduce from the two samples? It’s hard to get
anything conclusive out of the data. There was no major correlation in why
scores differentiated.</p>



<p>The main note to be taken when considering boom rookies from
the prior season is that forwards will naturally be more likely to gain an
increase in minutes than their backline counterparts.</p>



<p>A likely increase or similar minutes means forwards are the safest options if concern arises over second-year syndrome.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The breakout season that twas Cameron Murray 🔥 <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NRL?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NRL</a> <a href="https://t.co/SIEeiidqLr">pic.twitter.com/SIEeiidqLr</a></p>&mdash; NRL (@NRL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NRL/status/1206453904185135105?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 16, 2019</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<p>Of the seven forwards listed, just two (Eisenhuth and Arrow)
produced smaller averages, both by minor margins.</p>



<p>Casting aside players who averaged around 80 minutes last
season (Nikora, Bateman), this would suggest the likes of Luke Garner, Payne
Haas, Cameron Murray and David Fifita are most likely set for SuperCoach
improvement. </p>



<p>Backs are already playing the full 80, and if they’ve had
stats to propel them to the top of SuperCoach charts they are far more likely
to struggle to attain similar numbers.</p>



<p>Edwards, Isaako and Smith all experienced significant drops
having been unable to back up their previous season’s exploits. </p>



<p>All in all, second-year syndrome impacts backs greater than forwards, but not significantly enough to suggest it should be a major concern when selecting your team.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">John Bateman letting off a bit of steam&#8230; literally. 🎥 Elliott Whitehead via Instagram.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeAreRaiders?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeAreRaiders</a> <a href="https://t.co/b7lNgkNaZ3">pic.twitter.com/b7lNgkNaZ3</a></p>&mdash; Canberra Raiders (@RaidersCanberra) <a href="https://twitter.com/RaidersCanberra/status/1189051775929634816?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 29, 2019</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<p><strong>2020 PREDICTIONS</strong></p>



<p>Now the fun part! We have selected 13 of the best SuperCoach rookie/breakout players of 2019. Walson, Dez and Tim predict what we think they will average in 2020. </p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class=""><tbody><tr><td>Player</td><td>2019 points</td><td>2019 Ave.</td><td>Walson</td><td>Dez</td><td>Tim</td></tr><tr><td>John Bateman</td><td>1438</td><td>72</td><td>75</td><td>70</td><td>69</td></tr><tr><td>Cameron Murray</td><td>1596</td><td>69</td><td>72</td><td>64</td><td>71</td></tr><tr><td>Payne Haas</td><td>1567</td><td>78</td><td>82</td><td>83</td><td>81</td></tr><tr><td>Briton Nikora</td><td>1380</td><td>60</td><td>62</td><td>56</td><td>57</td></tr><tr><td>Maika Sivo</td><td>1356</td><td>59</td><td>55</td><td>52</td><td>62</td></tr><tr><td>Bronson Xerri</td><td>1183</td><td>56</td><td>58</td><td>62</td><td>66</td></tr><tr><td>Ryan Papenhuyzen</td><td>1039</td><td>52</td><td>85</td><td>77</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>Reuben Garrick</td><td>1259</td><td>52</td><td>50</td><td>55</td><td>48</td></tr><tr><td>Paul Momirovski</td><td>665</td><td>55</td><td>50</td><td>48</td><td>43</td></tr><tr><td>Luke Garner</td><td>806</td><td>58</td><td>63</td><td>56</td><td>54</td></tr><tr><td>Brian To&#8217;o</td><td>851</td><td>57</td><td>59</td><td>53</td><td>50</td></tr><tr><td>Jayden Okunbor</td><td>566</td><td>57</td><td>54</td><td>48</td><td>42</td></tr><tr><td>David Fifita</td><td>1242</td><td>54</td><td>66</td><td>66</td><td>73</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p><em><strong>SUPERCOACH TERMINOLOGY KEY</strong></em></p>



<p>MPG = Minutes per game</p>



<p>PPG = Points per game</p>



<p>PPM = Points per minute</p>



<p>BPG = Base per game (point accrued in tackles + runs + missed tackles)</p>



<p>POD = Point of difference</p>



<p></p>


Second-year syndrome: Fact or myth?

Discussion (0)

Subscriber podcast: Seeing Cleary, long-term halfback planning

NRL Round 11 Teams: Supercoach Squad Analysis

Half-Backed punters special: NRL Round 10 tips

Subscriber podcast: Bye-period cheapie and mid-range targets