Projected Price Changes: The Good and Not So Good

Jay Schubert has crunched the numbers on the top and bottom projected price changes after Round 1.


Well after one of the toughest rounds in recent Supercoach history, I’m sure most of us are very tempted to rage trade 1 or more players this week.

With so many highly owned and highly-priced players flopping all in the same week, it was nearly impossible to be 100% happy with our squads as a whole.

Keep in mind price changes are calculated off a 3-round rolling average, meaning the scores from round 1 will only affect 1 price change. After which they will come off their rolling average.

So the first price rise will be in round 3 for players who have played all 3 games, Tigers, Titans, and Dolphins players will not change in price until round 4. Even if a player drops money in round 1, most will make it back and more in the weeks to come.

Hopefully these numbers will assist with making the right call this week for who to hold and who to sell.

I’ve broken down the numbers to look at the top and bottom projected price changes.

These have been calculated by using each player’s round 1 score and their current priced average for rounds 2 and 3. This is purely to be used as a guide as more accurate information will be available once round 2 is completed

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The Good

Zac Laybutt $465,600 – CTW – COWBOYS

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Scored 103 in round 1 with 2 tries, priced at a 46-point average.

His maximum score in 2023 was 91 so it’s hard to say if he’ll score as well, but still much better than where he is priced.

Predicted BE of -12 with a price rise of $50,000 coming if he can average 46 in the round coming up.

Bryce Cartright $636,400 – 2RF – EELS

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Is the Carty Party back?

2 tries on his way to 116 points, top scoring for round 1, it could be.

Priced at an average of 62 from 2023, his predicted BE of 9 is very easily attainable. So long as he can match his scores from last season he is looking at a $47,000 price rise.

Raymond Faitala-Mariner $363,200 – 2RF – DRAGONS

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One of the surprises of the weekend, RFM was massive.

Priced at a 36 point average to come out and score 86, just wow. His predicted BE of -15 would see an increase of $44,000.

However, beware of Luciano Leilua coming into the rotation this week.

Tyrell Sloan $542,000 – FLB – DRAGONS

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Sloan’s score of 103 in round 3 although good is propped up with three tries, while some may consider as a trade-down option to free up some cash, be ready for low scores with the base just not being there.

With a predicted BE of 3 and running with a priced average of 53 he’ll have a $44,000 price rise.

Murray Taulagi $528,400 – CTW – COWBOYS

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Following up from a breakout year in 2023 Taulagi scored 103 with just 1 try. He is pricey but was impressive.

A predicted BE of 27 and a price increase of $43,000 if he averages 52 based on 2023. He could be this year’s Hammer.

Zac Lomax $630,500 – CTW – DRAGONS

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Could this be the year Zac finally becomes the goal-kicking CTW we’ve been missing?

Priced at a 62-point average he looked interested and involved in round 1. If he can match his 2023 average he’ll see a predicted BE of 16 and a price increase of $40,000.

Ben Trbojevic $277,400 – 2RF/CTW – SEA EAGLES

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He is the most owned player for good reason, priced in the cheapie range, dual position, and playing huge minutes.

Only priced at an average of 27 from 2023 where he played bit parts, 2024 is shaping up to be far different.

If he averages the 27 from last season he’ll have a BE of -18 with a price rise of $39,000. He should knock that out of the park.

Zac Hosking $511,000 – 2RF – RAIDERS

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Slightly left field including Hosking on this list, but it is hard to deny 92 points, played the full 80 min.

55 points coming in base/power with attacking upside, could be a great early upgrade if you have another 2RF that flops this week. Priced at a 50-point average, a predicted BE of 8 he’ll get a price increase of $37,000.

The Not So Good

Nicho Hynes $970,000 – HFB – SHARKS

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Yes, it was a hard watch in round 1, only 26 points without an injury.

Nicho is priced at a 95-point average from 2023. Even if he can match his average from 2023 his projected BE will be 164 and a price drop of $60,000.

Keep in mind, on his day he can produce anything, his max score from 2023 was an impressive 180.

Nathan Cleary $912,500 – HFB – PANTHERS

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Producing his lowest score in recent memory, Nathan Cleary could be on the outer for many teams.

He was priced at an 89-point average from 2023, with a predicted BE of 143. A price drop of $47,000 is expected to come even if he is able to reach his 89 average from last season.

He did produce a score of 158 at his peak last year though.

Brendan Piakura $426,800 – 2RF – BRONCOS

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HIA in the opening minutes was not the start to the season any of us wanted. His score of 4 will only affect 1 price change thankfully.

Piakura is priced at a 42-point average from 2023, from that his predicted BE is 80 and a price drop of $33,000. His price will bounce back, as he won’t be scoring 4 every week.

*Note: Written prior to Thursday night’s clash where Piakura scored 47 points

Kayln Ponga $892,800 – FLB – KNIGHTS

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Who would have thought 50 would be acceptable for Ponga in round 1?

Even with his price based on his 87 average from 2023, his predicted BE of 125 and a price drop of $33,000, I feel he is still a hold.

His max score from 2023 was 180 and he did finish the year averaging 119 from round 18 to the end.

Scott Drinkwater $851,800 – FLB – COWBOYS

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He was unlucky not to pick up more points as the flow of the game just didn’t go his way. 

Priced off his average of 83 from last season, including a score of 1, his predicted BE is 119 and is dropping in price by $31,000.

However, his maximum score from 2023 was 173, and the usual Cowboys attack flows through Drinkwater. Firm Hold.

Ryan Papenhuyzen $645,600 – FLB – STORM

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In a grinding, low scoring game against the defensive-minded Panthers, Papi’s round 1 score is a wipe.

Expect a bounce back when the game is more free flowing. He is predicted to only drop $29,000 back on his 63-point average from last season with a BE of 96.

Remember we all chose these high-price, high-reward players for a reason, it was just incredibly unlikely that so many would flop in the same week. Once their round 1 score comes out of their rolling average most or all will regain the cash lost and save a trade.

Hopefully, this will help you decide to trade or hold firm on the players that you chose prior to round 1. Remember you chose them for a reason.

Good luck for the week ahead

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