Projected Price Changes: The Good and Not So Good


<p>Well after one of the toughest rounds in recent Supercoach history, I’m sure most of us are very tempted to rage trade 1 or more players this week. </p>



<p>With so many highly owned and highly-priced players flopping all in the same week, it was nearly impossible to be 100% happy with our squads as a whole.</p>



<p>Keep in mind price changes are calculated off a 3-round rolling average, meaning the scores from round 1 will only affect 1 price change. After which they will come off their rolling average. </p>



<p>So the first price rise will be in round 3 for players who have played all 3 games, Tigers, Titans, and Dolphins players will not change in price until round 4. Even if a player drops money in round 1, most will make it back and more in the weeks to come.</p>



<p>Hopefully these numbers will assist with making the right call this week for who to hold and who to sell.</p>



<p>I’ve broken down the numbers to look at the top and bottom projected price changes.</p>



<p>These have been calculated by using each player&#8217;s round 1 score and their current priced average for rounds 2 and 3. This is purely to be used as a guide as more accurate information will be available once round 2 is completed</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size"><strong>The Good</strong></h2>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size"><strong>Zac Laybutt $465,600 &#8211; CTW &#8211; COWBOYS</strong></h3>



<a id='rI0eVDGLS59tu-Kw_TFpTA' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2037080433' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'rI0eVDGLS59tu-Kw_TFpTA',sig:'4uuiqybbCNElIMtRYvf4OPyu0KwEZbabOLTD_Ylf7-Q=',w:'594px',h:'411px',items:'2037080433',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>Scored 103 in round 1 with 2 tries, priced at a 46-point average. </p>



<p>His maximum score in 2023 was 91 so it&#8217;s hard to say if he’ll score as well, but still much better than where he is priced. </p>



<p>Predicted BE of -12 with a price rise of $50,000 coming if he can average 46 in the round coming up.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size"><strong>Bryce Cartright $636,400 &#8211; 2RF &#8211; EELS</strong></h3>



<a id='H-IwgrBgQNR9wTCVMNwwKQ' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2037043168' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'H-IwgrBgQNR9wTCVMNwwKQ',sig:'c_LEaFPuNb2BLseltK8kxItP9uA1MujmzIpke1o6uPw=',w:'594px',h:'368px',items:'2037043168',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>Is the Carty Party back? </p>



<p>2 tries on his way to 116 points, top scoring for round 1, it could be. </p>



<p>Priced at an average of 62 from 2023, his predicted BE of 9 is very easily attainable. So long as he can match his scores from last season he is looking at a $47,000 price rise.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size"><strong>Raymond Faitala-Mariner $363,200 &#8211; 2RF &#8211; DRAGONS</strong></h3>



<a id='vb-Y7jG2Sfted2kjta-snA' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2070385999' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'vb-Y7jG2Sfted2kjta-snA',sig:'3DTXjnqG1qTh9mPjpq-i56VKFTRsjwf03Q9CU63BuI8=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2070385999',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>One of the surprises of the weekend, RFM was massive. </p>



<p>Priced at a 36 point average to come out and score 86, just wow. His predicted BE of -15 would see an increase of $44,000. </p>



<p>However, beware of Luciano Leilua coming into the rotation this week.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size"><strong>Tyrell Sloan $542,000 &#8211; FLB &#8211; DRAGONS</strong></h3>



<a id='IkLAB7FzQfNDHVfupKYoWA' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2070497091' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'IkLAB7FzQfNDHVfupKYoWA',sig:'cl0yROft7UrAnR-relbJqosrIxEqQOs1KH4SJi2igOk=',w:'594px',h:'370px',items:'2070497091',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>Sloan&#8217;s score of 103 in round 3 although good is propped up with three tries, while some may consider as a trade-down option to free up some cash, be ready for low scores with the base just not being there. </p>



<p>With a predicted BE of 3 and running with a priced average of 53 he’ll have a $44,000 price rise.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size"><strong>Murray Taulagi $528,400 &#8211; CTW &#8211; COWBOYS</strong></h3>



<a id='bk5Al8J_RXRsnFMid66_0g' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/1923479443' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'bk5Al8J_RXRsnFMid66_0g',sig:'WBTS9yU6T1RGzIB8zt3-9Cx_l0EeR3hAmpdvbisFuDQ=',w:'594px',h:'429px',items:'1923479443',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>Following up from a breakout year in 2023 Taulagi scored 103 with just 1 try. He is pricey but was impressive. </p>



<p>A predicted BE of 27 and a price increase of $43,000 if he averages 52 based on 2023. He could be this year&#8217;s Hammer.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size"><strong>Zac Lomax $630,500 &#8211; CTW &#8211; DRAGONS</strong></h3>



<a id='ucAPpW7_RQ1zL0Elydgw2w' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2034933585' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'ucAPpW7_RQ1zL0Elydgw2w',sig:'PheNx1MqCr7OWXKL2aYEyflgke1w4q_FwjfLgTRS7Yc=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2034933585',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>Could this be the year Zac finally becomes the goal-kicking CTW we’ve been missing?</p>



<p>Priced at a 62-point average he looked interested and involved in round 1. If he can match his 2023 average he’ll see a predicted BE of 16 and a price increase of $40,000.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size"><strong>Ben Trbojevic $277,400 &#8211; 2RF/CTW &#8211; SEA EAGLES</strong></h3>



<a id='I72kyEywQJ59jVk1K-euRw' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2051242312' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'I72kyEywQJ59jVk1K-euRw',sig:'srNtCHgjYPknvgi2K29AYR8G2nJqUuts_9MNVVB0pr4=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2051242312',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>He is the most owned player for good reason, priced in the cheapie range, dual position, and playing huge minutes. </p>



<p>Only priced at an average of 27 from 2023 where he played bit parts, 2024 is shaping up to be far different. </p>



<p>If he averages the 27 from last season he’ll have a BE of -18 with a price rise of $39,000. He should knock that out of the park.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size"><strong>Zac Hosking $511,000 &#8211; 2RF &#8211; RAIDERS</strong></h3>



<a id='HxHutZo7QipD-0xj9JwCKQ' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2065336321' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'HxHutZo7QipD-0xj9JwCKQ',sig:'mGpB14jsgxJY0_3BiolBaMW_XZ7amTkcS6jCNJfUat0=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2065336321',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>Slightly left field including Hosking on this list, but it is hard to deny 92 points, played the full 80 min. </p>



<p>55 points coming in base/power with attacking upside, could be a great early upgrade if you have another 2RF that flops this week. Priced at a 50-point average, a predicted BE of 8 he’ll get a price increase of $37,000.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size"><strong>The Not So Good</strong></h2>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size"><strong>Nicho Hynes $970,000 &#8211; HFB &#8211; SHARKS</strong></h3>



<a id='OycuaGYQS7BW5JUJ3zyBNw' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2067601655' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'OycuaGYQS7BW5JUJ3zyBNw',sig:'GULz821ILRHlgAbAv_0spjocxLa1cATUAW9T7YvMk8E=',w:'594px',h:'421px',items:'2067601655',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>Yes, it was a hard watch in round 1, only 26 points without an injury. </p>



<p>Nicho is priced at a 95-point average from 2023. Even if he can match his average from 2023 his projected BE will be 164 and a price drop of $60,000. </p>



<p>Keep in mind, on his day he can produce anything, his max score from 2023 was an impressive 180.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size"><strong>Nathan Cleary $912,500 &#8211; HFB &#8211; PANTHERS</strong></h3>



<a id='8C05Sh91QMZ0LexeZ8cy4A' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2067992795' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'8C05Sh91QMZ0LexeZ8cy4A',sig:'ySmKVah2AECRHJAFilLq9NL8qZiEpc4x6yvHJ7DmACY=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2067992795',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>Producing his lowest score in recent memory, Nathan Cleary could be on the outer for many teams. </p>



<p>He was priced at an 89-point average from 2023, with a predicted BE of 143. A price drop of $47,000 is expected to come even if he is able to reach his 89 average from last season. </p>



<p>He did produce a score of 158 at his peak last year though.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size">Brendan Piakura $426,800 &#8211; 2RF &#8211; BRONCOS</h3>



<a id='O_VjPNtvTtJrbG3iHwbagg' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/1701464951' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'O_VjPNtvTtJrbG3iHwbagg',sig:'TPZH_PBUqcm07CxrmTj34CCai3RReyvIS2Woee4QYzs=',w:'594px',h:'391px',items:'1701464951',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>HIA in the opening minutes was not the start to the season any of us wanted. His score of 4 will only affect 1 price change thankfully. </p>



<p>Piakura is priced at a 42-point average from 2023, from that his predicted BE is 80 and a price drop of $33,000. His price will bounce back, as he won&#8217;t be scoring 4 every week.</p>



<p>*Note: Written prior to Thursday night&#8217;s clash where Piakura scored 47 points</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size"><strong>Kayln Ponga $892,800 &#8211; FLB &#8211; KNIGHTS</strong></h3>



<a id='i9nnV29tQi5dpllMg5pPFQ' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2065382502' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'i9nnV29tQi5dpllMg5pPFQ',sig:'ugwSIgzyuu9lM7dE0ydleOhWb2C0P_p4j1skWm6lhGc=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2065382502',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>Who would have thought 50 would be acceptable for Ponga in round 1? </p>



<p>Even with his price based on his 87 average from 2023, his predicted BE of 125 and a price drop of $33,000, I feel he is still a hold. </p>



<p>His max score from 2023 was 180 and he did finish the year averaging 119 from round 18 to the end.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size"><strong>Scott Drinkwater $851,800 &#8211; FLB &#8211; COWBOYS</strong></h3>



<a id='5ASwk5nXQrhh6ZP0nRGf2w' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2072577765' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'5ASwk5nXQrhh6ZP0nRGf2w',sig:'vASJIaxLfvQ3RWZmy3hRp_x_OnYdAVMdqb1zhqjtQH0=',w:'594px',h:'385px',items:'2072577765',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>He was unlucky not to pick up more points as the flow of the game just didn&#8217;t go his way. </p>



<p>Priced off his average of 83 from last season, including a score of 1, his predicted BE is 119 and is dropping in price by $31,000. </p>



<p>However, his maximum score from 2023 was 173, and the usual Cowboys attack flows through Drinkwater. Firm Hold.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size"><strong>Ryan Papenhuyzen $645,600 &#8211; FLB &#8211; STORM</strong></h3>



<a id='qNU2vDDjQId9xfOeA3BfOQ' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2067826807' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'qNU2vDDjQId9xfOeA3BfOQ',sig:'Kyuj2TTRL9y5GeMADjCCvSmUl4mZJH7nnEDDBM5Yo2w=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2067826807',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>In a grinding, low scoring game against the defensive-minded Panthers, Papi’s round 1 score is a wipe. </p>



<p>Expect a bounce back when the game is more free flowing. He is predicted to only drop $29,000 back on his 63-point average from last season with a BE of 96.</p>



<p>Remember we all chose these high-price, high-reward players for a reason, it was just incredibly unlikely that so many would flop in the same week. Once their round 1 score comes out of their rolling average most or all will regain the cash lost and save a trade.</p>



<p>Hopefully, this will help you decide to trade or hold firm on the players that you chose prior to round 1. Remember you chose them for a reason.</p>



<p>Good luck for the week ahead</p>


Projected Price Changes: The Good and Not So Good

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