Tim Williams
SC Playbook founder, 2nd NRL 2020, 43rd BBL 21/22'
Final word: Skippers, weather watch, super PODs Rd 8
With time ticking down until SC Big Bash Round 8, Tim Williams has the final say on weather, super PODs, captains and more.
BBL
January 11, 2024
We’ve arrived at the penultimate round of the Supercoach Big Bash season.
Round 8 is also the first of the tournament with no teams on the double game or on a bye.
The only double to come is the Sydney Thunder in round 9 who have a fairly unpredictable roster and poor form this season.
This is exciting because it gives Supercoaches looking for a final throw at overall glory, or head-to-head, the opportunity to go for single game week players at low-ownership.
We should see pretty solid variation in trades over the next two rounds which could blow the overall race wide open.
Embed from Getty ImagesSadly the Cooma Stallions aren’t in that overall race, sitting in a lacklustre position of 4,851st overall.
It’s been a disappointing season for the Stals indeed, but we hit a bit of form last round as we push for a late surge to a more respectable season rank.
In the meantime, I’ll be intently following the charge of dual defending champion Andrew Langley who’s eyeing a remarkable Supercoach BBL three-peat.
The odds of that happening blow Leicester City’s remarkable English Premier League title win at $1500-1 out of the water.
A Supercoach three-peat would be about one in 15 million…
Andrew’s sitting at 95th overall after bringing in Michael Neser last round, because of course he did.
Bring it home mate!
Let’s take a look at the Final Word for Round 8.
Embed from Getty ImagesWeather Watch
All weather is courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology as of Thursday, 2PM. All times are in AEDT. Forecasts are subject to change.
Thursday
7:15PM: Hurricanes v Strikers, Blundstone Arena, Hobart
Forecast: Partly cloudy, 25 degrees, 0% chance of rain.
Verdict: All clear
Friday
7:15PM: Sixers v Thunder, SCG, Sydney
Forecast: Shower or two, 29 degrees, 60% chance of 0-1mm of rain.
Verdict: Looking fairly clear, the minor showers are forecast for morning/afternoon also so it should be okay.
Saturday
4:15PM: Scorchers v Heat, Optus Stadium, Perth
Forecast: Mostly sunny, 39 degrees, 10% chance of any rain. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Verdict: Verrrrryyyyy hot in Perth, ooft. Barring any thunderstorm rolling through at game time it should be fine.
Sunday
7:15PM: Renegades v Stars, Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Forecast: Partly cloudy, 23 degrees, 10% chance of any rain.
Verdict: All clear
Looking ahead
It’s a simple look ahead for the final two rounds, with no teams on the double in Round 8 for the first time this season.
Note also that no teams are on the bye, so this will make any opportunities to us the loophole slim which isn’t ideal.
Sam Harper owners can use the Stars opener as a WKP-BAT loop, while a trade option of $42k dual position nuff Hugo Burdon looks a wise play this week.
The Brisbane Heat have the final bye of the season, that’s in round 9, so hold onto one or two of their players for looping purposes next round.
The Sydney Thunder are the final team to play a double which comes in round 9.
They have some uncertainty around their line-up, and they’ve struggled this season, so waiting until next round is probably wise to load up.
That being said, going early on a locked in player such as Daniel Sams or Chris Green is a decent play this round.
Embed from Getty ImagesSuper PODs
In the Final Word, we’ll look at the super POD options, the players at under 5% ownership (or around about) that could send you soaring (or falling) up the overall ranks.
They come with big risk, but the reward is immense if it comes off.
Generally speaking I’ll look to single game week players, with doubles upcoming, as the low-ownership double game round players on that given week tend to sky-rocket out of super POD territory once the round begins and trades are locked in.
There was no Final Word last round, prior to that we had Nathan Ellis, Xavier Bartlett and Nathan McSweeney ahead of their round 7 double.
For the double, McSweeney scored 9 in just one game, Barlett 149 and Ellis 121, so two out of three ain’t bad.
With every team on the single game week it opens up a STACK of super POD options.
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Sean Abbott – 2.7% ownership (top 10% overall rank)
Abbott is one of the best players in Supercoach, but has been fairly luckless at stages this season.
He’s very affordable for his ability at just $152k, bowls key late overs and could bat a spot higher pending Tom Curran’s replacement (hopefully not Hayden Kerr).
The Sixers face the fragile Thunder batting order at the SCG in round 8 which is enticing.
He’s at just 2.7% ownership approximately five hours out from the first game of the round, so he should stay in super POD range.
He’ll be more enticing if the Sixers bowl first in Sydney.
Akeal Hosein – 1.8% ownership (top 10% overall rank)
I’m surprised the West Indian star is still at such low-ownership, I suppose the $208k price tag is very off-putting for most.
Hosein was superb in his BBL stint last season, and was recently named Player of the Tournament in the Abu Dhabi T10 tournament where he took an absurd 5/6 in the semi-final.
He also gets a game on the minefield that is the Sydney Showground which will be very beneficial to him.
Embed from Getty ImagesBreakevens
Each week we’ll list the top players with both the highest and lowest breakevens, plus a few additional players worth noting, to help track your cash movement.
The breakeven number is the score required in the upcoming round for a player to make or lose money.
Lowest breakeven (Money-makers)
Ashton Agar -74
Michael Neser -65
Chris Jordan -48
Ben McDermott -32
Fergus O’Neill -32
Coper Connolly -29
Spencer Johnson -25
James Vince -19
Nikhil Chaudhary -16
Glenn Maxwell -15
Nathan McAndrew -10
Marcus Stoinis -9
Tim David -9
Nathan Ellis -5
Embed from Getty ImagesHighest breakeven (Likely price drop)
Shaun Marsh 131
Daniel Sams 122
Lance Morris 110
Mitchell Swepson 106
Aaron Hardie 105
Jason Behrendorff 94
Will Sutherland 89
Matthew Wade 87
James Bazley 86
Nathan McSweeney 84
Tom Rogers 81
Sean Abbott 81
Mac Wright 80
Andrew Tye 79
Matt Kuhnemann 77
Cameron Bancroft 77
Jack Edwards 76
Embed from Getty ImagesSkippers
With no teams on the double there’s a plethora of options for anyone wanting to take a risk.
Matt Short will be extremely popular as vice-captain as the Strikers open the round, while Glenn Maxwell will be a very high percentage as captain as the Stars close out round 8.
So where can we look elsewhere?
First and foremost, it’s Short’s teammate Jamie Overton who will be sure to have his admirers, yet still at significantly lower VC numbers than Short.
Embed from Getty ImagesOverton arguably has the best role in Supercoach and is in terrific form which is backed by his Supercoach average of 72.1.
He belted 123 last game and can go big again.
Elsewhere, take your pick because outside of the three aforementioned players you’ll be getting a very low percentage play.
Beau Webster is in strong form, and although there’s volatility over his bowling role he’s a differential play to Maxwell.
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Will Sutherland is now likely batting six and becomes even more appealing, while teammate Akeal Hosein is arguably a better option with more guarantee to bowl his overs.
Dan Sams had a stinker last round, but that should only keep people away from him.
He has a great role and has some big scores to his name already this season.
For me it’ll likely be a slight gamble on Overton as VC, likely into Maxwell C depending how my round plays out in that time.
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