Niko’s watchlist: Trades, breakevens, and tags, Round 18

2021 runner-up Steven Nikolovski analyses the players he's most interested in, but also keeps a close eye on any potential tags that might occur this week


I pulled the trigger and brought Docherty back, which helped me post a 2586.  That saw my rank jump 200 spots to 1100.  Hopefully I can keep the climb going and score myself another pair of KFC socks! 

I also brought Mullin in which wasn’t great, meaning I lost a little bit of flexibility in my defensive line with no DPP bench player now.  Hopefully he keeps his spot otherwise I may be forced into trading an injured defensive player later in the season.

If by some miracle Dunkley returns this week, I will field a full premium side for the first time this season.  Green, Day, DCam and Sheezel are premos right?

PRICE DROP! Sign up to SC Playbook for the remainder of the AFL & NRL Season for just $40 for the full package! Gain access to stacks of additional premium articles every week during the season, our Whatsapp community featuring Qnas with our team of contributors and late mail, and plenty of other bonus features. SUBSCRIBE HERE!

Embed from Getty Images

My Watchlist

Luke Ryan (DEF $587.6k) – What ridiculous form he is in.  6 x 120+ scores this season.  Four games at home during Supercoach finals.

Touk Miller (MID $556.3k) – I drafted this article on Monday and wrote “is Dew trying to lose his job on purpose” by saying he prefers Touk forward of the ball.  I’m hoping the interim coach rubbishes that and plays him with bulk CBA’s so I can luxury trade him in.

Sam Walsh (MID $531.3k) – Missed forward DPP as the Kennedy injury meant he had more CBA’s.  I’m watching closely if this is a permanent role change.

Luke Davies-Uniake (MID $524.8k) – As expected, was much better in his second game back from a long layoff.  Posted his fourth 120+ score in 9 matches.  Great price, great ceiling.

Embed from Getty Images

Patrick Cripps (MID $498.7k) – Three 100+ scores in a row now and the team has lifted considerably too.  I’m wary of the opposition this has been against, but if he does it again against Port this week it would be very hard to resist moving Day to him when WC is next.

Jack Steele (MID $474k) I think he’s over his injury concerns judging by how he was moving Saturday night.

Callum Mills (MID $427.1k) – Thought he had a poor game and he scored 99.  That scares me as a non-owner.

Embed from Getty Images

Harry Himmelberg (DEF/FWD $411.4k) – As I predicted, should be good for a 90 average in this role.  Could be a good 23rd premium option to loop/swing with Sheezel.

Jeremy Cameron (FWD $395.2k) – A break-even of 178 when he returns means he’ll get close to $300k.

George Hewett (MID $280.8k) – Another sub appearance for a measly score of 17.  Will have a big break-even for the next couple of weeks so will continue to plummet in price.  If Kennedy’s knee injury keeps him out for a month, he could be an extremely cheap option for our mid bench.  Will most likely drop a staggering $400k in price this season.

Do you ever feel uneasy with how much you’re gambling with? You’re not alone, footy fans love a punt, but sometimes it can get a bit out of control. There’s help available with Gareth Wyatt and the team at CECAL. It’s nothing to be ashamed of, so make the call and get in contact here:

Break-even Analysis


  • N/A
Embed from Getty Images


  • Lachie Fogarty (MID/FWD $230.5k BE -52) – Looks a good option for season long cover.
  • David Cuningham (MID/FWD $212.8 BE -38) – As above.
  • Elijah Hewett (MID $203.7k BE -31) – Break out game.  No DPP hurts.
  • Ryan Maric (FWD $165.3k BE -25) – Should still get games.
  • Jack Williams (RUC/FWD BE -15) – Cheap option if you need that DPP swing.
Embed from Getty Images
  • Campbell Chesser (DEF/MID $162.9k BE -7) – Seems like the WC kids have turned a corner.
  • Cooper Harvey (MID/FWD $117.3k BE -6) – 52 on debut for the son of a gun and handy DPP.
  • Oisin Mullin (DEF $134.3k BE 2) – Irish Nick is cheap if he holds his spot.
  • Callum Mills (MID $427.1k BE 39) – Only went up $23k so still extremely affordable.
  • Jack Steele (MID $474k BE 45) – If you trust he’s over his injury issues he’s a ridiculous price.
  • Patrick Cripps (MID $498.7k BE 63) – I think the Brownlow medallist is back.
Embed from Getty Images


  • Bailey Smith (MID/FWD $416.8k BE 143) – Only 3% have him, but that’s 3% too many.  A shell of himself and might be out with illness.
  • Harry Sheezel (DEF/FWD $459.1k BE 119) – 67% of teams have a decision to make.  Role is getting thrown about and we do not want to see him forward ever again.  Ideally you can move him to the bench, or luxury upgrade him.  I think I’m giving him another chance.
  • Tom Green (MID $549k BE 113) – This is disappointing coming off two big scores.  Can easily bounce back against the Crom as he averages 109 against them.
  • Jack Ziebell (DEF/FWD $446.9k BE 104) – The popular Kanga lads have fallen off a cliff.  I think he needs to go as he may play more man-on-man, that’s if he plays at all.
  • Ben Keays (MID/FWD $522k BE 93) – He’s almost completely phased out of the CBA’s.  Tough pill to swallow if you are a newish owner.
Embed from Getty Images
  • Matthew Kennedy (DEF/MID $420.5k BE 93) – Out for 6 weeks and a must trade.  This must hurt Rainman because he scored 110 in less than half of footy before the injury.
  • Matthew Johnson (MID 328.7k BE 84) – Looks like he’s topped out and ready to trade.
  • Seamus Mitchell (DEF/MID $386.8k BE 79) – Same as MJ above.  Sell unless you don’t have trades or need the cover.  DPP is handy.
  • Josh Weddle (DEF $350.1k BE 45) – I would keep Mitchell if you had both as the DPP is valuable this time of year.
  • Eddie Ford (FWD $255.6k BE 39) – He probably keeps getting games so happy to hold him as cover, but you can trade if you need the money in him.
Embed from Getty Images

Tag Watch

Nick Daicos – James Aish might be the next person to try.

Touk Miller / Noah Anderson – Windhager or Bytel could get a job.

Luke Davies-Uniake – Maginness is back.

Over the next 12 months an estimated 60% of all fixed rate mortgages are going to expire. Patty and George from Mortgage Choice SCW can get you the best rate possible. It’s a super easy process, so flick them a message. Save $129 by mentioning SC Playbook for a FREE CONSULT!

Adam Saad – Darcy Byrne-Jones looks an ideal matchup.

Will Day – Luke Shiel looks a decent matchup if the Kangas take a tagging route.

Josh Kelly – After the success Maginness had on him, I’d be shocked if Ben Keays didn’t tag him.

Embed from Getty Images

Potential Trades

I’ll probably hold and wait for my boy Touk, but I’m considering trading Harry Sheezel to Callum Mills.

Leave a Reply