Niko’s watchlist: Trades, breakevens, and tags, Round 16

2021 runner-up Steven Nikolovski analyses the players he's most interested in, but also keeps a close eye on any potential tags that might occur this week


I’m into the top 1k, let’s go!!  I’m pretty proud of that since I was sitting at 44k at the conclusion of Round 4. 

2102 to finish the byes which saw me score a collective 8232 points over the period, at an average of 2058 per round.  Can’t complain about that but would’ve been nice to be able to field Briggs in Round 14, and maybe a bit more input from Dev Rob and Maric in the round just gone. 

I have one spot left to fill at M8 or D6 with 4 trades remaining. 

$70k in the kitty means I could wait and upgrade Fyfe to Mills in one trade next week. 

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Or do I bring in Cripps now using two trades and keep Fyfe as cover? 

Swinging Day to the mids meaning I could bring JZ back in now that Hall is out. 

Don’t trade at all this week and loop Dev Rob and Fyfe at M8 is another option. 

Or do I cull Fyfe and bring in a Houston/Docherty type? 

There’s plenty of different ways to approach this as I have good flexibility in my side. However, I’m shopping in the clearance bin so looking at players under $540k.

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My Watchlist

Sam Docherty (DEF $539.8k) – Back to defence and had 32 touches and 9 marks.  That’s the role we want to see but will it continue for the remainder of the season?  Only two games away from the MCG and Marvel.  POD as only in 7.2% of teams currently.

Dan Houston (DEF $539.6k) – Super POD at 1.7% ownership. Five-round average of 109.4 and that includes a 47 where he had a shoulder knock early against the Dogs. Five matches at Adelaide oval to come and playing for the form team of the competition.

Jordan Ridley (DEF $529.8k) – This has been some form turnaround.  I simply can’t bring myself to trade him back in though.

Bailey Dale (DEF $524.7k) – 5 round average of 109.8 but JJ is back before Supercoach finals.

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Luke Ryan (DEF $521.1k) – 3 round average of 110.  Seems under-priced for what he can deliver.  Outside of a one month stretch he has been outstanding.  5 matches at home and the other 4 don’t look bad on paper for him either.

Sam Walsh (MID $514.4k) – Two tonnes in the past 5 means you can’t safely bring him in unless we hear of a positive role change which is extremely doubtful.  Annoying as we know what he’s capable of as a pure midfielder.

Luke Davies-Uniake (MID $497.9k) – Coming off injury I will probably pass, unless I hold trades this week and he looks really good on his return.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (DEF/MID $478.3k) – 5 round average of 101.4 but is prone to a really bad score.  You only have to look back two weeks for his 59 but he did have a knee knock early in that one.

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Nick Blakey (DEF $473.9k) – The lizard.  Low break-even, great ceiling but only 5 tonnes in 14 matches.

Jack Ziebell (DEF/FWD $467.8k) – I traded him, and Aaron Hall was omitted a week later.  Would’ve kept him if that omission was a week earlier.  I can’t believe I need to re-consider him, but he is a great asset with Hall not in the picture.

Ben Keays (MID/FWD $462.7k) – 29 disposals and 16 of them contested.  Would he have had 78% CBA’s if Nick didn’t have 80%?  I’m not totally convinced on role, but the Crows have had a consistent set of 5 guys run thought the middle the past month.

Patrick Cripps (MID $457k) – Reigning Brownlow medallist available at a bargain price, but he’s not at the same level.  He’s still the main guy in the middle with consistent 80% CBA’s every week.  The difference, he’s not hitting the scoreboard with only the 4 goals this season.

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Jack Steele (MID $452.2k) – Is he back?  I’m thinking no, but good signs against the Lions.  2 tonnes in 11 matches is telling.

Elliot Yeo (DEF $444.8k) – Bit late to the party.  Our defensive bench options are too poor to seriously consider him unless I commit to having Day in my midfield all season for that cover.

Callum Mills (MID $430.2k) – Price is in free fall after his return and tactical substitution.  Horse would’ve been pleased to be able to ease him back in like that.  We know his scoring potential, but it was highlighted again with 55% TOG for 77 points.  Projected to be under $400k this time next week.

Harry Himmelberg (DEF/FWD $396.4) – Looks like he’s playing defence again, but can we trust GWS?  Should be good for a minimum 90 average in that role IF he keeps it.

Jeremy Cameron (FWD $395.2k) – Poor bloke got knocked out by his teammate and his match ended before it started.  With that -3 in his scoring cycle, he will be ridiculously cheap, like low $300k cheap.

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Break-even Analysis


  • N/A
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  • Oisin Mullin (DEF $102.4k, BE -32) – If he’s back in the Geelong team he’s in mine.  Played well in VFL.
  • Jaspa Fletcher (MID $157.8k, BE -25) – Using the ball well when he gets it.  Only 68% TOG for his 53.
  • Ryan Maric (FWD $102.4k, BE -6) – Obviously found the going tough in such a large loss.  I think he still gets the opportunity to develop so can safely sit on our forward benches.
  • Kai Lohman (FWD $146.5k, BE -6) – 29pts and subbed out, so a pass for me.
  • Will Day (DEF/MID $478k, BE 26) – On fire with Sicily out.  Don’t think it lasts for long so better options elsewhere as trade ins.
  • Errol Gulden (MID/FWD $545k, BE 40) – If you don’t own him, now is your chance.
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  • Elliot Yeo (DEF $444.8k, BE 51) – He’s scoring well in mammoth loses which is great to see.  Looks like his body is holding up for now but you will need to have good bench cover to consider him.
  • Luke Ryan (DEF $521.1k, BE 52) – Is it worth sacrificing my bench cover to be able to afford him.  Well priced for his output and ceiling and 5 games at home in the last 9.
  • Luke Parker (MID $576.6k, BE 54) – A supercoach gun.  We thought he would make way for Gulden but he’s still the top Swan.
  • Jordan Ridley (DEF $529.8k, BE 61) – Since his concussion he’s been dynamite.
  • Nic Martin (MID/FWD $569.6k, BE 66) – Just ask Eddie how he’s going.
  • Adam Treloar (MID $582.5k, BE 72) – I’d be finding the extra money to get to Libba.
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  • Jeremy Cameron (FWD $395.2k, BE 178) – A negative 3 would do that to your break-even.  Pure bad luck for those who traded him in.  You can trade him, but I’d be inclined to hold and ride the low unless your cover is Maric.
  • Rowan Marshall (RUC $547k, BE 142) / Jarrod Witts (RUC $571.5k, BE 145) – I’m seeing their names about so it must be for people bringing Briggs to R2.  I think they both score extremely well this week though; one is up against the Eagles and the other his old side.  I’d lean to trading Marshall.
  • Bailey Humphrey (MID/FWD $394.4k, BE 120) – Well done to those who have him but time to go.  Lost his role and Touk is back very soon too.  Number 1 trade out this week.
  • Will Ashcroft (MID $408.6k, BE 87) – Tigers and Eagles at home where he averages 98.5, I’d be holding for the next two weeks but could get you to a Petracca etc.
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  • Josh Weddle (DEF $345.5k, BE 81) – Dropped a disappointing 51 against the Suns so his time is probably up.
  • Nat Fyfe (MID/FWD $319.7, BE 63) – I want to keep him as my cover for all the mids, forwards and rucks but he’s the one who can get me to the $540k players.
  • Alex Cincotta (DEF/MID $256.1k, BE 35) – I’m half tempted to keep him as bench cover, but I’m not convinced he’s a main stay in the Blues line-up.  I’ll probably keep him if named.
  • Eddie Ford (FWD $252.4k, BE 32) – I’m keen to sell him but if he’s named will make some more cash.
  • Seamus Mitchell (DEF/FWD $347.4k, BE 29) – Easy hold as cover especially with his DPP but perhaps he can get you to an uber premium.
  • Devon Robertson (MID $257.5k, B/E 21) – All of my trade out options have low break-evens so if he’s named and scores 80+ on Thursday night I may not trade at all this week.  Has that wing role where he can go missing but two home games against the Tigers and Eagles looks great on paper.
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Tag Watch

Tom Stewart – Ryan Clark will go straight to him if named.  He was a late in last week.

Luke Davies-Uniake – I can see Ben Keays going head-to-head with him.

Tom Liberatore – If Aish is back this could be on the table.  Libba is having a huge season.

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Nick Daicos – Nic Holman perhaps if Nick is off half-back.  Pies will probably play him in the middle anyway where the Suns may sacrifice Noah Anderson a little to run with him.

Darcy Parish – Willem Drew could get the cooling job here.

Will Day – I’ll be keeping a close eye on whether Ed Curnow returns to the side.

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Potential Trades

My head is spinning.

  1. Hold, dependant on what Dev Rob scores in the first game.
  2. Trade Fyfe and Ford to a dead rookie with DPP and Dan Houston
  3. Trade Ford and Cincotta/Dev Rob to dead rookie with DPP and Cripps

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