Niko’s watchlist: Trades, breakevens, and tags, Round 13

2021 runner-up Steven Nikolovski analyses the players he's most interested in, but also keeps a close eye on any potential tags that might occur this week


1930 points for me this week which is a good start to the bye rounds and saw me climb into the top 2k for the first time this season. 

Huge call keeping JVR paid off handsomely, as did a last-minute decision to trade in Briggs instead of Wardlaw. 

Looked a masterstroke captaining Merrett at half time, but a Liam Shiel tag in the second half tempered celebrations slightly. 

Very happy overall especially as I’ve decided to anti-pod Tim English which is not exactly going great.

I wanted to use one trade this week to bring in Neale, but I’m $2k short of upgrading Weddle which is a pain.  It’s either hold and see if Weddle makes $2k more than Neale this week or trade some under-performing “premiums” like Ziebell and Day.

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My Watchlist

Caleb Serong (MID $610.2k) – He’s flown under my radar all season.  +$111k on his starting price with a 114 average.  Off his bye he looks a great option.

Andrew Brayshaw (MID $581.1k) – Three big scores in his last four.  Is he a better pick than his teammate who is having a break-out?  Will that $30k be super handy elsewhere?  I’m just worried he gets most of the attention from the opposition.

Lachie Neale (MID $577.5k) – Comfortably the number 1 trade in target this week.

Chad Warner (MID $552.2k) – 4 tonnes in the last 5 see’s him on the radar.  Another coming off the bye but will he keep this up with Mills back soon?

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Jack Steele (MID $520.9k) – Looked banged up and in need of the week off.  If he comes out and looks good Thursday night, I will consider him at the cheap price.

Luke Davies-Uniake (MID $497.9k) – Injured but may be too cheap to ignore when he returns.

Callum Mills (MID $471.4k) – Waiting for him to return and bottom out.  He’ll be so cheap!

Darcy Cameron (RUC/FWD $458.8k) – Has bottomed out but has the bye after King’s Birthday.  Trading Briggs to him looks a no brainer.

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Jeremy Cameron (FWD $446.1k) – Important win for the Cats which could be their turning point.  A tonne for Jezza who looks a good option for round 14, 15 and beyond.

Elliot Yeo (DEF $350.9k) – 125 against the top team has him firmly in the discussion, but can you trust his body?

Nat Fyfe (MID/FWD $244.2k) – Was on 50 at half time before lack of match fitness took hold against the Dees.  Everything is trending upwards.  Promised more midfield minutes and has valuable DPP.

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Break-even Analysis


  • N/A
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  • Kieren Briggs (RUC $340.4k) B/E -32:  If you need an R2 bringing him in will give you cash to upgrade elsewhere, otherwise pass.
  • Lewis Melican (DEF $172.3k) B/E -18:  Might be worth a shot if named for Thursday night. 
  • Elliot Yeo (DEF $350.9k) B/E 6:  A great score on the weekend but I just cannot trust him.
  • Ben Keays (MID/FWD $389k) B/E 7:  This one is interesting.  Has he been in the midfield rotation because he’s tagging?  Or is he part of the first-choice midfield team?  I expect the former and for him to be back in the forward line for longer stints again.  Passing.
  • Nat Fyfe (MID/FWD $244.2k) B/E 26:  Already had his bye, cheap, DPP and expected to play more midfield as of now.  Ticks a lot of boxes and you can keep him as a M9/F7 loop player.  Just need his body to hold up for a minimum 3 weeks.
  • Nic Martin (MID/FWD $482.1k) B/E 32:  Having a hell of a season but passing as a SC option.
  • Jordan Ridley (DEF $475.7k) B/E 45:  3 tonnes on the trot and we know Essendon have a great draw.  Appealing option at a budget price.
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  • James Sicily (DEF $608.9k) B/E 49:  Expensive but he showed his ceiling the last match he played.  Hopefully he’s had his rush of blood for the season.
  • Caleb Daniel (DEF/FWD $582k) B/E 53:  Wow, where was this when I owned him as a POD in 2021.  Going huge every week.  Seems to have benefited from some defensive injuries at the kennel.
  • Jack Sinclair (DEF $531.2k) B/E 78:  We need him to play half back, not midfield.  Has shown his ceiling and appealing coming off the bye.
  • Bailey Dale (DEF $520.4k) B/E 79:  Another who has benefited from injuries.  A great option for those who R15 bye looks alright.
  • Lachie Neale (MID $577.5k) B/E 86:  Almost a must have against the Hawks this week.  Perfect upgrade target.
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  • Jack Ziebell (DEF/FWD $517.6k) B/E 172:  Aaron Hall has killed him.  I think he’s a trade unless Hall is dropped.
  • Harry Sheezel (DEF/FWD $464.2k) B/E 119:  Similar story to JZ.  Hall in has had a negative effect, plus he’s playing all over the ground.  I think I’m holding.
  • Will Day (DEF/MID $440.7k) B/E 102:  Such a frustrating player to own.  His DT to SC ratio is terrible.  No tonne since round 4 is telling but at least his price is not massively fluctuating.
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  • Rory Atkins (DEF/MID $313.6k) B/E 83:  Did owners get lucky with his second half scoring against the Crows?  Or did something click?  Was on track for another terrible score at half time.  Has made $100k but if I owned, I’d probably hold and hope for the best.
  • Alex Cincotta (DEF/MID $235.3k) B/E 43:  I like the way he plays but he’s close to topping out.  Can trade now if you need to, or do we hold him as D7 cover?
  • Josh Weddle (DEF $325.8k) B/E 38:  Should still make money but Sicily and Mitchell back might see him back to 60 scoring.  Understand people trading but I’ll hold for one more.
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Tag Watch

Tom Green / Stephen Coniglio:  Do the Kangas continue with Shiels after the job he did on Merrett in the second half?  Hope not as I own both.  Perhaps if one is utterly dominating.

Patrick Cripps:  Jye Caldwell might have the run with role.

Bailey Dale / Caleb Daniel:  One might get some attention from Darcy Byrne-Jones I think.

Rory Laird / Jordan Dawson:  I expect one will get attention from Xavier O’Neill.

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