Niko's watchlist: Trades, breakevens, and tags, Round 13


<p>1930 points for me this week which is a good start to the bye rounds and saw me climb into the top 2k for the first time this season.  </p>



<p>Huge call keeping JVR paid off handsomely, as did a last-minute decision to trade in Briggs instead of Wardlaw.  </p>



<p>Looked a masterstroke captaining Merrett at half time, but a Liam Shiel tag in the second half tempered celebrations slightly.  </p>



<p>Very happy overall especially as I’ve decided to anti-pod Tim English which is not exactly going great.</p>



<p>I wanted to use one trade this week to bring in Neale, but I’m $2k short of upgrading Weddle which is a pain.  It’s either hold and see if Weddle makes $2k more than Neale this week or trade some under-performing “premiums” like Ziebell and Day.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>My Watchlist</strong></h2>



<p><strong>Caleb Serong (MID $610.2k)</strong> – He’s flown under my radar all season.  +$111k on his starting price with a 114 average.  Off his bye he looks a great option.</p>



<p><strong>Andrew Brayshaw (MID $581.1k)</strong> – Three big scores in his last four.&nbsp; Is he a better pick than his teammate who is having a break-out?&nbsp; Will that $30k be super handy elsewhere?&nbsp; I’m just worried he gets most of the attention from the opposition.</p>



<p><strong>Lachie Neale (MID $577.5k)</strong> – Comfortably the number 1 trade in target this week.</p>



<p><strong>Chad Warner (MID $552.2k)</strong> – 4 tonnes in the last 5 see’s him on the radar.  Another coming off the bye but will he keep this up with Mills back soon?</p>



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<p><strong>Jack Steele (MID $520.9k)</strong> – Looked banged up and in need of the week off.  If he comes out and looks good Thursday night, I will consider him at the cheap price.</p>



<p><strong>Luke Davies-Uniake (MID $497.9k)</strong> – Injured but may be too cheap to ignore when he returns.</p>



<p><strong>Callum Mills (MID $471.4k)</strong> – Waiting for him to return and bottom out.&nbsp; He’ll be so cheap!</p>



<p><strong>Darcy Cameron (RUC/FWD $458.8k)</strong> – Has bottomed out but has the bye after King’s Birthday.  Trading Briggs to him looks a no brainer.</p>



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<p><strong>Jeremy Cameron (FWD $446.1k)</strong> – Important win for the Cats which could be their turning point.&nbsp; A tonne for Jezza who looks a good option for round 14, 15 and beyond.</p>



<p><strong>Elliot Yeo (DEF $350.9k)</strong> – 125 against the top team has him firmly in the discussion, but can you trust his body?</p>



<p><strong>Nat Fyfe (MID/FWD $244.2k)</strong> – Was on 50 at half time before lack of match fitness took hold against the Dees.&nbsp; Everything is trending upwards.&nbsp; Promised more midfield minutes and has valuable DPP.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Break-even Analysis</strong></h2>



<p>MUST HAVE’S</p>



<ul><li><strong>N/A</strong></li></ul>



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<p>CONSIDER</p>



<ul><li><strong>Kieren Briggs (RUC $340.4k) B/E -32:</strong>  If you need an R2 bringing him in will give you cash to upgrade elsewhere, otherwise pass.</li><li><strong>Lewis Melican (DEF $172.3k) B/E -18:</strong>  Might be worth a shot if named for Thursday night. </li><li><strong>Elliot Yeo (DEF $350.9k) B/E 6: </strong> A great score on the weekend but I just cannot trust him.</li><li><strong>Ben Keays (MID/FWD $389k) B/E 7:</strong>  This one is interesting.  Has he been in the midfield rotation because he’s tagging?  Or is he part of the first-choice midfield team?  I expect the former and for him to be back in the forward line for longer stints again.  Passing.</li><li><strong>Nat Fyfe (MID/FWD $244.2k) B/E 26:</strong>  Already had his bye, cheap, DPP and expected to play more midfield as of now.  Ticks a lot of boxes and you can keep him as a M9/F7 loop player.  Just need his body to hold up for a minimum 3 weeks.</li><li><strong>Nic Martin (MID/FWD $482.1k) B/E 32:</strong>  Having a hell of a season but passing as a SC option.</li><li><strong>Jordan Ridley (DEF $475.7k) B/E 45:</strong>  3 tonnes on the trot and we know Essendon have a great draw.  Appealing option at a budget price.</li></ul>



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<ul><li><strong>James Sicily (DEF $608.9k) B/E 49:  </strong>Expensive but he showed his ceiling the last match he played.  Hopefully he’s had his rush of blood for the season.</li><li><strong>Caleb Daniel (DEF/FWD $582k) B/E 53:  </strong>Wow, where was this when I owned him as a POD in 2021.  Going huge every week.  Seems to have benefited from some defensive injuries at the kennel.</li><li><strong>Jack Sinclair (DEF $531.2k) B/E 78:  </strong>We need him to play half back, not midfield.  Has shown his ceiling and appealing coming off the bye.</li><li><strong>Bailey Dale (DEF $520.4k) B/E 79:</strong>  Another who has benefited from injuries.  A great option for those who R15 bye looks alright.</li><li><strong>Lachie Neale (MID $577.5k) B/E 86:  </strong>Almost a must have against the Hawks this week.  Perfect upgrade target.</li></ul>



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<p>TRADE OUT OPTIONS</p>



<ul><li><strong>Jack Ziebell (DEF/FWD $517.6k) B/E 172:</strong>  Aaron Hall has killed him.  I think he’s a trade unless Hall is dropped.</li><li><strong>Harry Sheezel (DEF/FWD $464.2k) B/E 119:  </strong>Similar story to JZ.  Hall in has had a negative effect, plus he’s playing all over the ground.  I think I’m holding.</li><li><strong>Will Day (DEF/MID $440.7k) B/E 102:  </strong>Such a frustrating player to own.  His DT to SC ratio is terrible.  No tonne since round 4 is telling but at least his price is not massively fluctuating.</li></ul>



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<ul><li><strong>Rory Atkins (DEF/MID $313.6k) B/E 83:</strong>  Did owners get lucky with his second half scoring against the Crows?  Or did something click?  Was on track for another terrible score at half time.  Has made $100k but if I owned, I’d probably hold and hope for the best.</li><li><strong>Alex Cincotta (DEF/MID $235.3k) B/E 43:  </strong>I like the way he plays but he’s close to topping out.  Can trade now if you need to, or do we hold him as D7 cover?</li><li><strong>Josh Weddle (DEF $325.8k) B/E 38:  </strong>Should still make money but Sicily and Mitchell back might see him back to 60 scoring.  Understand people trading but I’ll hold for one more.</li></ul>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Tag Watch</strong></h2>



<p><strong>Tom Green / Stephen Coniglio:</strong>&nbsp; Do the Kangas continue with Shiels after the job he did on Merrett in the second half?&nbsp; Hope not as I own both.&nbsp; Perhaps if one is utterly dominating.</p>



<p><strong>Patrick Cripps:</strong>&nbsp; Jye Caldwell might have the run with role.</p>



<p><strong>Bailey Dale / Caleb Daniel:</strong>&nbsp; One might get some attention from Darcy Byrne-Jones I think.</p>



<p><strong>Rory Laird / Jordan Dawson:</strong>&nbsp; I expect one will get attention from Xavier O’Neill.</p>


Niko’s watchlist: Trades, breakevens, and tags, Round 13

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