Team lists: Supercoach round 12 squad analysis

2020 NRL Supercoach runner-up Tim Williams analyses the squads dropped for round 12 of the 2023 season.


We’re edging ever closer to the daunting NRL Supercoach bye period, with Round 12 the penultimate weekend before it all begins.

Head-to-head players need not worry too much about getting 13 players for the three major bye weeks in round 13, 16 and 19, but overall players should be targeting as close to that as possible without ripping your side apart.

During those rounds half the competition will be on the bye.

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A word of warning on round 14, with the Sea Eagles, Eels and Knights on the bye, it will be far trickier than most are anticipating, so check your trade plans and how many you’re likely to have that week to avoid getting caught short.

The Cooma Stallions scored 1,201 points in Round 11, a bit below par unfortunately to drop around about 1,000 spots to sit 5,400th overall.

Still a solid spot to be in as we approach the bye period, but hopefully there’s some more green on the horizon this week.

Below will give greater attention to the eight clubs playing in Round 13.

Let’s take a look at NRL Supercoach round 12, with squads courtesy of Fox Sports.

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Thursday, 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Jesse Arthars 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Jock Madden 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Cory Paix 15. Corey Jensen 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Martin Taupau 18. Deine Mariner 19. Keenan Palasia 20. Brendan Piakura 21. Xavier Willison 22. Jordan Pereira

Analysis: I reluctantly moved on Reece Walsh last week and at halftime of the Storm v Broncos clash I was regretting it very quickly.

He only scored a handful of second half points to finish on 67 which I was more than okay with.

With his breakeven down to 40 and likely availability next week following Kalyn Ponga’s starring performance, he’s a hold until at least the end of next week barring Origin selection, then reconsider.

With Brisbane’s Round 13 coverage, Tom Flegler is one that’s half caught my eye at $397k with a breakeven of 28.

He scored 42 in 67 minutes on the weekend which isn’t great, but it was including a sin-bin and I expect him to continue his increased minutes with Payne Haas and Pat Carrigan impacted through the Origin period.

Adam Reynolds would have been a sneaky halfback option at around $500k for at least the first bye round, but I’d prefer others, especially as Brisbane will be depleted in Round 13 against a full-strength Warriors outfit.

The fact he’s out this week means he won’t get the big price drop with a huge breakeven. It also means Reece Walsh will kick goals.

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Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Tyrone Peachey 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Zac Hosking 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Soni Luke 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Martin 17. Jaeman Salmon 18. Jack Cogger 19. Luke Garner 20. Thomas Jenkins 21. Chris Smith 22. Liam Henry

Analysis: No Round 13 coverage for the in-form Panthers.

Following his 148 a month back, plenty brought in Stephen Crichton for the cash grab and points upside.

He’s since produced a three round average of just 43 and can be sold with a breakeven of 107.

Scott Sorensen put in an eye catching performance against the Roosters with 175 points.

I flirted with maybe a sneaky cash grab play, then realised he’s already at $636k!

Despite the -36 breakeven, with Liam Martin back and Zac Hosking leaving the field early with a head knock I see him likely going back to a 50 minute bench role so I’m not keen.

Tyrone Peachey continues to deliver for those who jumped on, scoring 77 against the Chooks to sit at $404k with a -3 breakeven after making $115k so far.

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He’s still a solid buy, but without the early bye coverage I’d probably look elsewhere.

The highly sold Zac Hosking is a bit of a tough one. He’s been rock solid up until last weekend without attacking stats of late.

He copped a head knock after 31 minutes and didn’t return, although I believe he passed his HIA and could have if required, but they were happy to rest him.

His breakeven is 73, prior to last week his lowest scores this season were 49 and 55.

I think he’s nearly a hold, but the question is whether or not he continues as an 80 minute man going forward. Tough.

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Friday, 6pm, Jubilee Stadium, Sydney

Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Mathew Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Talatau Amone 7. Ben Hunt 8. Jack de Belin 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Jack Bird 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Michael Molo 14. Jayden Sullivan 15. Toby Couchman 16. Ben Murdoch-Masila 17. Josh Kerr 18. Francis Molo 19. Moses Mbye 20. Jaiyden Hunt 21. Zane Musgrove 22. Max Feagai

Analysis: Jack de Belin crossed for a try and linebreak two minutes into the game against the Cowboys, scoring 84 points in 71 minutes.

Brilliant for those who jumped on, but now at $650k with a new coach incoming that may have a say in his minutes changing, I think the ship has sailed.

Last week’s popular cheapie Max Feagai scored 21 points, making $42k and now sitting with a breakeven of 27 and has been dropped for Zac Lomax.

Tyrell Sloan has a three round average of 22 and is $50k cheaper than the week people jumped on as the most traded player for the cash grab.

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Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Corey Allan 3. Joseph Suaalii 4. Billy Smith 5. Jaxson Paulo 6. Luke Keary 7. Drew Hutchison 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Egan Butcher 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Victor Radley 14. Jake Turpin 15. Nat Butcher 16. Angus Crichton 17. Matthew Lodge 18. Sandon Smith 19. Fletcher Baker 20. Nathan Brown 21. Junior Pauga 22. Terrell May

Analysis: No Round 13 coverage for the Roosters.

Billy Smith is one of the week’s most purchased players, averaging 76 points across his first two games despite playing in well beaten teams.

He’s just $289k with a breakeven of -62 with a nice match-up against the Dragons incoming.

Most impressive in his scoring is the fact he’s had 42 and 45 in base on return from injury!

In two games so far he’s had 43 tackles, 13 tacklebreaks, 30 runs and three offloads.

Buying him puts me at risk of not having 13 for round 13, but I think you nearly have to do it.

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I’m tempted to make him my final forced cash cow of the season before entirely turning the focus to points.

According to the great NRL Physio, Joey Manu should only miss a week or two with an ankle injury.

He wasn’t playing next week regardless with the bye, so I think he’s probably a hold throughout, but I understand the sell.

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Friday, 8pm, Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Rabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Taane Milne 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Hame Sele 11. Michael Chee Kam 12. Jacob Host 13. Cameron Murray 14. Blake Taaffe 15. Jai Arrow 16. Liam Knight 17. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 18. Ben Lovett 19. Richard Kennar 20. Peter Mamouzelos 21. Shaq Mitchell 22. Dean Hawkins

Analysis: From Round 13 onwards, South Sydney’s Origin contingent miss four of the next eight games, so I can’t make a case to buy Latrell Mitchell.

With the Bunnies flying he could also get a potential rest post any Origin games.

Alex Johnston couldn’t find the line against the Tigers, disappointing with just 40 points.

Taane Milne may look an appealing POD with Round 13 coverage following his 131 against the Tigers, but it seems risky.

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Four of his six scores this season have been sub 42, and the Rabbitohs will be missing key Origin players next week.

With a breakeven of -8 it could pay off, but I prefer others.

At $778k with a breakeven of 90, a lower score this week could see Cody Walker finally get to a more affordable price tag in time for Round 13.

The Rabbitohs upcoming draw is very good against the Eels, Raiders, Titans, Dragons, bye, Cowboys, Warriors and Bulldogs, so he’s an option in brilliant form.

He hasn’t scored under 60 since Round 3.

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Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Sean Russell 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Wiremu Greig 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Junior Paulo 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Andrew Davey 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Ofahiki Ogden 15. Brendan Hands 16. Ryan Matterson 17. Makahesi Makatoa 18. Jakob Arthur 19. Haze Dunster 20. Ky Rodwell 21. Daejarn Asi 22. Luca Moretti

Analysis: Parramatta play the three major bye rounds and provide great coverage.

They do miss Round 14 which is extremely tricky, so don’t overinvest in them.

Shaun Lane’s hamstring injury is a blow, but good news for the minutes of Ryan Matterson and J’maine Hopgood who both look great buys.

Matto is probably a wait for a week in case he sneaks into Origin camp just to be safe.

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With so many genuine Eels buys, Will Penisini may sneak under the radar a touch in coming weeks.

He’s getting to a more affordable price at $584k with a breakeven of 87.

He’s extremely consistent and has a low score of just 38 which is decent for a centre.

He’s basing an excellent 35 this season.

Cheapie Haze Dunster has been dropped.

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Saturday, 3pm, Coffs International Stadium, Coffs Harbour

Sharks: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Connor Tracey 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Oregon Kaufusi 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Royce Hunt 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Dale Finucane 14. Braydon Trindall 15. Jack Williams 16. Wade Graham 17. Thomas Hazelton 18. Daniel Atkinson 19. Mawene Hiroti 20. Braden Hamlin-Uele 21. Jesse Colquhoun 22. Jayden Berrell

Analysis: Cronulla don’t play Round 13.

I’m considering holding Nicho Hynes and Nathan Cleary at halfback until at least Round 16, we’ll chat more about this on tonight’s SC Playbook podcast.

Provided Nicho is in the Origin set up, from next week he’d miss three of the next five games for Cronulla, with the two games he plays being against Brisbane and Melbourne at AAMI Park.

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Cashing in at $900k then buying back post Origin could be the play…

I’ve spoken at length this season about all the decent Sharkies options, but I’ll save further analysis for Round 14 once they’ve got their bye out of the way.

At which point Sifa Talakai, Jesse Ramien, Sione Katoa, Ronaldo Mulitalo, Briton Nikora and co will all be high on the buy radar as they play the next two major bye rounds.

Still no Talakai in the side after being a late out last round.

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Knights: 1. Lachlan Miller 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Kalyn Ponga 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Jack Hetherington 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Leo Thompson 14. Tyson Gamble 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Adam Elliott 17. Mathew Croker 18. Jack Johns 19. Enari Tuala 20. Adam Clune 21. Hymel Hunt 22. Simi Sasagi

Analysis: It didn’t take Kalyn Ponga long to bounce back to form, knocking out 114 in a match-winning performance against the Titans.

He’s popular this week at the dirt cheap price of $485k with a breakeven of 19, but with Origin looming he misses Round 13, then Round 14 with Newcastle’s bye.

His next three club games are against the Sharks, Broncos and Panthers.

Add in the injury and concussion concern, I’m not tempted at all and I’m a big KP fan boy.

Greg Marzhew ($629k) and Lachie Miller ($663k) are both decent buys, but they’re both fairly expensive and the draw is fairly off-putting.

Phoenix Crossland owners would have been thrilled to see him play 74 minutes at hooker on the weekend, kicking a 40/20 to record 54 points.

He’s now made $92k, plays Round 13 and hopefully dishes out some okay points before being moved on the following week.

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Saturday, 5:30pm, Leichhardt Oval, Sydney

Tigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Starford To’a 4. Tommy Talau 5. Junior Tupou 6. Brandon Wakeham 7. Luke Brooks 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. John Bateman 13. Fonua Pole 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Alex Twal 17. Asu Kepaoa 18. Alex Seyfarth 19. Shawn Blore 20. Justin Matamua 21. Daine Laurie 22. Aistasi James

Analysis: No Round 13 coverage for the Tigers leaves fairly little Supercoach interest.

Jahream Bula scored 45 against the Rabbitohs which is more than respectable in a side that scored no points.

He had 37 in base which is really encouraging and made $66k as a result to sit with a breakeven of 3.

It’s a big week for him against the Cowboys, if he scores well he’s a hold for further cash, if he scores poorly and the breakeven soars he could be an early sell having made a decent chunk of cash.

We’ll reconsider the Tigers from Round 13, with John Bateman and Isaiah Papali’i both options down the track.

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Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Coen Hess 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jack Gosiewski 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Jake Granville 15. Mitchell Dunn 16. Riley Price 17. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 18. Zac Laybutt 19. Ben Hampton 20. Sylvester Namo 21. Brendan Elliot 22. Sam McIntyre

Analysis: I’m a tick annoyed Heilum Luki went bonkers with a pair of tries and 121 points against the Dragons.

I’m his biggest fan and was eyeing him as a POD for the bye period, he’s now one of the week’s most traded in players at $523k with a breakeven of 13.

He’s priced on approximately a 50 point average at the moment.

His minutes are increasing, but I suspect with two games under his belt back from injury he’ll be an 80 minute edge back-rower either this week or next.

He’s got a big motor and serious potential to jag attacking stats as we saw on the weekened, albeit against some below par defence.

So how does he go when playing bigger minutes? I’ve tracked down games of 60+ minutes in the past two years.

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Round 11: 121 points in 60 minutes with 45 in base (2x tries)

Round 5: 77 points in 71 minutes with 49 in base (one try-assist)


Round 13: 76 points in 68 minutes with 37 in base (one try)

Round 6: 90 points in 80 minutes with 57 in base (one try)

In summary, work-rate is good, and the man loves an attacking stat.

Val Holmes delivered for patient owners with 93 points against the Dragons.

After this week he misses three of the next four games for the Cowboys though, so he’s a sell, as is Reuben Cotter.

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Saturday, 7:35pm, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Euan Aitken 4. Brenko Lee 5. Tesi Niu 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Kenny Bromwich 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Tom Gilbert 14. Jarrod Wallace 15. Anthony Milford 16. Ray Stone 17. Herman Ese’ese 18. Mark Nicholls 19. Kurt Donoghoe 20. Edrick Lee 21. Valynce Te Whare 22. JJ Collins

Analysis: Valynce Te Whare has been dropped to make way for the returning Brenko Lee in a huge lesson for those who went super early on the strike centre.

It’s not panic stations, maybe he comes into the side for game day or finds his way back for Round 13 which is most important, but it is obviously a big concern.

Euan Aitken is under a bit of an injury cloud with a hamstring injury so maybe he gets the nod?

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If you held Isaako or Katoa through the bye you may as well hold until they play next week for the extra number.

Jeremy Marshall-King is priced at $680k with a 69 point average this season.

With just one score under 53 this season, and six of eight scores over 67, he’s a strong buy.

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Storm: 1. Nick Meaney 2. William Warbrick 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Josh King 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Aaron Pene 16. Tom Eisenhuth 17. Tui Kamikamica 18. Grant Anderson 19. Tariq Sims 20. Tepai Moeroa 21. Tyran Wishart 22. Jayden Nikorima

Analysis: Melbourne’s bye schedule is very good for their Origin contingent.

Popular guys like Cam Munster and Harry Grant will only miss three of eight games in the major period, of course this isn’t taking in any potential restings.

It makes me tempted to hold Grant despite the likely minute/score regression through that period.

Christian Welch owners would have been thrilled to see him knock out 68 points against the Broncos, with 52 points in base.

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He’s still likely a sell this week or next but outside of a couple of outlier weeks he’s been fairly solid for owners.

With scores of 44 and 45 the past two weeks, Nick Meaney has a breakeven of 141.

At $749k I’d be looking to cash in on that monster price tag.

With no Round 13 coverage, Melbourne will become more relevant after Round 13.

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Sunday, 2pm, Accor Stadium, Sydney

Bulldogs: 1. Hayze Perham 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Jake Averillo 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Karl Oloapu 7. Matt Burton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Tevita Pangai Junior 11. Corey Waddell 12. Jacob Preston 13. Harrison Edwards 14. Josh Reynolds 15. Jayden Okunbor 16. Samuel Hughes 17. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 19. Blake Wilson 20. Jackson Topine 21. Ryan Sutton 22. Kyle Flanagan 23. Kurtis Morrin

Analysis: No Round 13 coverage for the Bulldogs so there’s not a lot of Supercoach interest.

Except however for the great Harrison Edwards!

I spoke on the SC Playbook question and answer podcast about eyeing off Edwards last week, but I couldn’t quite bring myself to do it, especially as he was initially named on the bench before a game day switch.

That switch resulted in 68 minutes at lock, for 94 points including a try!

On top of that, just a cool 57 in base stats, made up of 44 tackles and nine runs.

It saw him rise from bottom dollar to $297k, sitting with a breakeven of -47, available in the difficult FRF position.

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If he maintains minutes he’s a great buy, but there’s the concern around players returning, including Chris Patolo who is a middle who played NSW Cup on the weekend in his first game back.

I think regardless though that Edwards makes good cash and can be flipped to a FRF gun down the track.

The issue is that both he and Billy Smith are great buys this week as cheapies, and neither play Round 13, so unless you’re really well prepared for that round you probably can’t have both as an overall player.

Head-to-head players could cash in on both.

I prefer the upside and job security of Smith personally.

Alert, Jacob Kiraz is below $500k… He’ll be the most traded in player after next week’s bye.

Karl Oloapu gets his first NRL starting game in the halves and should remain cheap come round 14.

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Titans: 1. Jayden Campbell 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Jojo Fifita 5. Phillip Sami 6. Kieran Foran 7. Tanah Boyd 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Chris Randall 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. David Fifita 12. Joe Stimson 13. Isaac Liu 14. Kruise Leeming 15. Erin Clark 16. Klese Haas 17. Jo Vuna 18. Aaron Schoupp 19. Thomas Mikaele 20. Iszac Fa’asumaleaui 21. Keano Kini 22. Ken Maumalo

Analysis: The Titans don’t play Round 13, but like the Storm, their Origin players have a great draw.

Initially I saw David Fifita as a sell at his enormous price, but with the great draw I might cash in elsewhere and just hold the big fella long-term.

I really do see merit in the cash grab, especially if he plays big minutes for the Maroons which would likely lead to reduced time for the Titans.

We’ll discuss the Titans in plenty more depth come Round 14 after their bye.

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Sunday, 4pm, GIO Stadium, Canberra

Raiders: 1. Sebastian Kris 2. Albert Hopoate 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Corey Horsburgh 14. Danny Levi 15. Emre Guler 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Ata Mariota 18. James Schiller 19. Hohepa Puru 20. Brad Schneider 21. Corey Harawira-Naera 22. Nick Cotric

Analysis: Joe Tapine knocked out a season high 70 on the weekend and looked excellent, that goes with a season low of 57.

While not hitting the heights owners wanted, that is rock solid if you’ve ever seen it.

Matt Timoko has a three round average of 89 following a 69 with a try on the weekend.

With 36 in base and great tacklebusting ability he remains a solid investment, but as per recent weeks I’ll target higher upside CTWs due to his high price.

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Jarrod Croker is likely about to peak in price having made $150k thus far.

He’ll be a Round 14 sell for a tidy profit and hopefully some decent points next week.

Don’t go early on Hudson Young if interested as he’s a big Origin chance.

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Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Brad Parker 4. Tolutau Koula 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Josh Schuster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Sean Keppie 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Karl Lawton 15. Samuela Fainu 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Ben Condon 18. Kaeo Weekes 19. Morgan Harper 20. Cooper Johns 21. Morgan Boyle 22. Gordon Chan Kum Tong

Analysis: Tommy Turbo just doesn’t look the same, scoring 41 against the Sharks.

If I owned, I’d probably hold another week as I think there’s every chance he misses Origin and is available for Manly in Round 13 which would be a key extra number.

If he has two poor weeks just flip him come Manly’s Round 14 bye.

It was only a matter of time until Reuben Garrick bounced back to his elite Supercoach self, with back-to-back scores of 83 and 90 in well beaten teams. Great buy.

Ben Trbojevic’s name always crops up around the bye period, and now is no different, with the young fella named to start in the back-row.

He’s $236k, with a breakeven of -3, dual CTW-2RF.

Josh Schuster returns in the halves just in time for Round 13.

SuperCoach Team Scoring

Via SC Playbook reader, Dylan

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