Niko’s watchlist: Trades, breakevens, and tags, Round 9

Surprisingly, being in Vegas and Vancouver has not stopped my climb up the ranks! 

I was positive I would stuff up a VC or emergency loop, or there’d be a late out, but thankfully my fellow contributor Eddie took the reigns on my behalf. 

Thanks Eddie! 

A season rank of 3,984 has me excited about the upcoming weeks and the byes where I have traditionally done well (knock on wood). 

20 trades left (1 boost) and I’m counting four spots to fill before I’m full premium, but the cash generation and rookie availability looks a little dire.

Sign up to SC Playbook in 2023! Gain access to stacks of additional premium articles every week during the season, our major subscriber prize, our Whatsapp community featuring Qnas with our team of contributors, and plenty of other bonus features. SUBSCRIBE HERE!

Embed from Getty Images

Who I’m Watching

Tim English (RUC $654.7k) – Once I get to full premium I will try and get this guy in over Sean Darcy if I have the trades and money.  He’s clearly the #1 ruck this season and his floor is way better than Shrek’s.

Sam Walsh (MID $615.1k) – Currently at 39% forward time so a huge watch in the next few weeks.

Noah Anderson (MID $605k) – 3 round average of 140 after a massive 189 on the weekend.  I’m just not convinced he keeps this up when Touk returns, and he’s expensive now.  Does however have the perfect bye.

Embed from Getty Images

Lachie Neale (MID $593.8k) – Despite his mammoth 176 a few weeks ago trading this guy out was a good move.  I was always planning on getting him back but his price – and form – is in free-fall.  Perhaps after the bye, but perhaps not.

Luke Ryan (DEF $587.9k) – Averaging just under 120 for the season!  The sleeper most are missing but I am surprised 20% have made the jump and are being handsomely rewarded.  Not sure I can go there despite his current output.

Darcy Parish (MID $567.9k) – His price has remained consistent over the last couple of weeks, and he is performing well.  3 round average of 111 has him right in the conversation as a good value trade in option. 

Embed from Getty Images

Jeremy Cameron (FWD $558.7k) – I’m waiting for a couple of poor scores before I consider him.  Boy he is good at footy, perfect bye too, but my forward line is stacked, and we may have Gawn as a forward option too soon.

James Sicily (DEF $537.6k) – Another poor score on the weekend so will be a good trade in after his bye, but avoiding completely might be the play as he no longer has a monopoly on kick-ins.  That could change obviously.

Andrew Brayshaw (MID $532.3k) – Looks to be completely over a little niggle and back to his best.  Clear value, but tricky 3 fixtures coming into the round 12 bye.

Embed from Getty Images

Callum Mills (MID $523.1k) – Clear spike in CBA’s with Gulden coming out.  Could be a great value selection.  I’m looking at him as a potential POD over his teammate.

Max Gawn (RUC $512.8k) – Watching in case he gets FWD status.  That would be huge.  He’s currently at 38% forward time so above the threshold.

Errol Gulden (MID/FWD $490.6k) – Zero CBA’s on the weekend was initially worrying, but then he played half back/wing and scored a massive 156!   His ceiling is huge, we know that, and at 40% owned he almost looks a must-have.

Embed from Getty Images

Rory Atkins (DEF/MID $203.9k) – Has the role we want Constable to have.  If he keeps his spot, he could be handy during the byes.  Awkward price but could be an option for people who took a chance on a mid-pricer like Chayce Jones.

Josh Weddle (DEF $130.8k) – The only viable option on the bubble.  I’m sick of Hawthorn defenders, but I might be forced into having another one. 

Blake Drury (MID/FWD $102.4k) – A 51 on debut but I’m trying everything in my power to not go early.

Are you about to tie the knot and have concerns about the cost of the wedding, and the honeymoon to follow? Patty and George from Mortgage Choice SCW can get you the best loan rate possible, with no hidden fees, and you’ll have the money within 24 hours. It’s a super easy process, only needing a message and a phone call. Save $129 by mentioning SC Playbook for a FREE CONSULT!

Break-even Analysis

Must-haves

• N/A

Embed from Getty Images

Consider

• Rory Atkins (DEF/MID $203.9k) B/E -42:  Could be an option for some.  Very wary he’s not best 22 though.
• Mitchell Knevitt (MID $164.5k) B/E -25:  Could benefit from Danger’s injury.  Just not sure Danger will be out that long and he’s at an elevated price.
• Josh Weddle (DEF $130.8k) B/E -18:  I don’t love it but he’s the cheapest guy on the bubble.
• Arthur Jones (FWD $169.1k) B/E -11:  His scores are improving but his floor is too low.

Embed from Getty Images

• Errol Gulden (MID/FWD $490.6k) B/E 3:  Huge ceiling and the best price he’ll be for a long time.  Projected to rise over $50k this week.
• Noah Anderson (MID $605k) B/E 9:  Now or never if you like him.  Looking at you Rainman.
• Dom Sheed (MID $403.3k) B/E 26:  Not for me but may be tempting for some.
• Jack Ziebell (DEF/FWD $541.2k) B/E 27:  Ziegull.  Another that is now or never. 

Embed from Getty Images

• Will Powell (DEF $527.4k) B/E 51:  In a purple patch of form and taking some kick outs.
• Sam Docherty (DEF $509.2k) B/E 71:  Playing more and more midfield which I don’t love, but he’s at a great price.
• Darcy Parish (MID $567.9k) B/E 96:  Pretty consistent 110-120 performer if that’s what you’re after.
• Callum Mills (MID $523.1k) B/E 116:  His CBA numbers are up and so is my interest.  Has dropped $120k on his starting price.

Embed from Getty Images

Trade-out Options

• Luke Davies-Uniake (MID $516.6k) B/E 161:  Just not getting it done.  Move to someone who is.
• Brodie Grundy (RUC $532k) B/E 152:  Must trade as Gawn is the main man.
• Jordan Ridley (DEF $426.3k) B/E 145:  Been a trade out for some weeks, now injured.  Must trade.

Embed from Getty Images

• Mason Redman (DEF $438.9k) B/E 121:  Same as Ridley, playing too accountable.
• Will Setterfield (MID $408.3k) B/E 109:  I’m not picking on Essendon I swear.  Had his chances to reset his break-even.  Hasn’t happened.
• Fergus Greene (FWD $267.1k) B/E 106:  Not sure I’ve seen a bigger must trade in my life.

Embed from Getty Images

• Will Ashcroft (MID $373.2k) B/E 71:  You could hold for another week; home game v Ess is appealing but leaning to trading.
• Reuben Ginbey (DEF/MID $284k) B/E 61:  You may be able to squeeze a little more out.
• Conor McKenna (DEF $306.7k) B/E 57:  Another you could hold until the bye but has starting dropping in price.
• Oskar Baker (MID $284.2k) B/E 42:  Those who have held has bled this one dry.

Embed from Getty Images

Tag Watch

Christian Petracca – I’m expecting Nash to try and limit him.  Don’t think Oliver is taggable.

Tom Liberatore – Hewett could be on him for the match.

Bailey Dale / Ed Richards – Ed Curnow could do a job here.

Do you ever feel uneasy with how much you’re gambling with? You’re not alone, footy fans love a punt, but sometimes it can get a bit out of control. There’s help available with Gareth Wyatt and the team at CECAL. It’s nothing to be ashamed of, so make the call and get in contact here: https://bit.ly/3L2yG1W

Lachie Neale – Has a huge record against the Dons.  I think Setterfield could try and negate him.

Errol Gulden – Aish perhaps tries to run with him?

Nick Daicos – The whole of GWS