Origin players: Assessing the major bye rounds and beyond

<p>Hey Michael, apologies mate. Will make more effort to check the comments section here from now on for you! Absolutely outstanding question, Sangster is chasing this up and will get back to us.</p>


<p>I play AFL SC as well where they have had this set up for years over bye rounds. You only get your best 13 scores from your fielded 13 Players + 4 Reserves. You would also get 1 AE (being your lowest non selected player). So pretty much think of it as any other round but only your 13 best scores count.</p>


<p>Hi Tim<br />
I am wondering if you could clarify something for me with your team and maybe Sangster as well.<br />
The &#8220;best 13 scores from your selected 17 players in bye rounds&#8221; has me a little confused.<br />
If, for example, I play NO hookers, halves and FB&#8217;s but say, play 6 x 2r&#8217;s would you get the scores of the extra 3 x 2r&#8217;s in lieu of your missing hookers, halves and fullbacks? Normally you would only get 1 ae but in the above example would you get 3 ae&#8217;s from your 17 selected players?<br />
I don&#8217;t really want to have to sell Hynes, Clearly, Latrell and Walsh during the byes. But if you can not play them and still be able to get ae scores for all of them from within your 17 players it would make a huge difference to bye planning.<br />
Apologies for contacting you via this article but I don&#8217;t use Twitter or any of the other social media platforms.<br />
Cheers! Michael</p>



<p>With State of Origin looming, I thought it’d be a fitting time to take a look at the impact that period will have on key Supercoach players.</p>



<p>While we all put our major focus on the three major bye rounds where half the competition is having a spell, it can be easy to overlook the following rounds, where three teams have the bye.</p>



<p>Remember that the Supercoach rules around the three major bye rounds have changed this season, we get our 13 best scoring players on those three rounds.</p>



<p>Honestly, it’s rare in the past we have more than 13 anyway so I don’t think this changes too much regarding our planning.</p>



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<p>For reference, the three major bye rounds are:</p>



<p><strong>Round 13</strong></p>



<p><strong>Round 16</strong></p>



<p><strong>Round 19</strong></p>



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<p>Meaning the rounds with three teams on the bye, which I’ll focus on in this article, are:</p>



<p><strong>Round 14</strong></p>



<p><strong>Round 17</strong></p>



<p><strong>Round 20</strong></p>



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<p>This won’t be the full bye coverage deep dive, it’ll focus only on the players set to play State of Origin, or are chances to play, and how they may be impacted over that period.</p>



<p>This will help us to determine whether or not we want to hold them through the bye period, or if we sell with an eye to getting back afterwards.</p>



<p>I won’t do all the homework for you, but this should provide enough information for you to adjust trades accordingly.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Round</strong></td><td><strong>On bye</strong></td><td><strong>Quick back-up</strong></td><td><strong>SC Origin impact</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Rd 14</td><td>Eels, Knights, Manly</td><td>Tigers v Raiders</td><td>Ponga, Turbo, DCE, Ola</td></tr><tr><td>Rd 17</td><td>Dogs, Sharks, Tigers</td><td>Dragons v Warriors</td><td>Nicho</td></tr><tr><td>Rd 20</td><td>Dragons, Raiders, Rabbits</td><td>Knights v Tigers</td><td>Trell, Graham, Cook, Murray, Cody, Ponga, Arrow</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



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<p>The quick back-up refers to the team playing the game on the Friday, two days after Origin, heightening the chances of that player being rested.</p>



<p>I’ve listed a few players that either will be in Origin, or are decent chances, that may be impacted on that given week.</p>



<p>We had a really good chat about this exact topic on this week’s SC Playbook podcast, so jump into that for an in-depth listen.</p>



<p>Most importantly from my analysis, we’ve got out of it okay.</p>



<p>Teams impacted by the bye period don’t have too many Supercoach relevant Origin players, so we are very lucky.</p>



<p>But there are some impacted in which we need to make note of.</p>



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<p>For anyone eyeing a dirt cheap Kalyn Ponga, provided he’s selected for Origin he’d miss Round 13 and 14 (bye), and has the two day back-up after Origin three.</p>



<p>Tom Trbojevic is perhaps the most significant, he’ll miss Round 13 due to Origin, then Round 14 on the bye.</p>



<p>You’d imagine he’d be a huge chance at a rest after Origin two and three also.</p>



<p>So perhaps he’s a move on in the key fullback position?</p>



<p>South Sydney have the bye in Round 20 after Origin three, so all of Latrell Mitchell, Cam Murray, Campbell Graham, Damien Cook and Jai Arrow will miss Round 19 and 20, of course pending NSW selections.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>GENERAL NOTE</strong></h2>



<p>Taking into consideration ladder position of teams is vital when you’re deciding whether to hold or sell Origin guns.</p>



<p>For example, Penrith are likely to be cruising around the top four, so players such as Brian To’o and Isaiah Yeo will be a huge chance at getting a rest after Origin regardless of what day they play.</p>



<p>Ditto someone like Payne Haas at Brisbane or Selwyn Cobbo.</p>



<p>On the flip side, someone like Valentine Holmes will be every chance to back-up (barring injuries/niggles), as the struggling Cowboys won’t be in the position to rest him.</p>



<p>Further, backline players are more likely to back-up due to lesser workload, while forwards who back up are strong chances at playing reduced minutes.</p>



<p>Take for example Cam Murray who might back up if Souths are in need of the win, but if he plays big minutes in Origin as expected, there’s every chance he plays off the bench or reduced minutes for the Rabbitohs.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>THE BIG DECISION</strong></h2>



<p>What to do at halfback?</p>



<p>For arguments sake, let’s say Nicho Hynes does get selected for the Blues.</p>



<p>With Jack Wighton retiring from rep footy and Jarome Luai not setting the world alight, he’s every chance to be in there somewhere, even at 18<sup>th</sup> man.</p>



<p>This means we’d be short a halfback in those three major bye rounds with Nathan Cleary also unavailable.</p>



<p>Yes, this is assuming we’re all trying to run a Cleary-Nicho combination, as we should be.</p>



<p>There’s no major harm in running both and being short at halfback those weeks, especially as we only get our top 13 scoring players.</p>



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<p>The issue is that they’re both likely to be around $900k which is a lot of money in the reserves, the Sharks have the bye in Round 17, so Nicho would miss Round 16 and 17.</p>



<p>Further, Cleary is the absolute prime candidate for a rest after Origin at the Panthers.</p>



<p>So, when you look at a player like Mitch Moses who plays all three major bye rounds, or Jahrome Hughes who should be ripe for picking and won’t be Origin impacted, it may pay off to flip one of these players.</p>



<p>I’m going to hold both through until that first major bye round and reassess at that point, but it’s worth having a think about how you want to play that scenario.</p>


Origin players: Assessing the major bye rounds and beyond

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