Ownership analysis: Pain and gain points, Round 4


<p>A bit of a tougher round this week, with anything over 2,200 a fairly strong score.</p>



<p>It’s only about 300 points between being ranked 20k and 1k so all hope is not lost.</p>



<p>We’ve now had two price changes and more trades than we would like to admit.</p>



<p>It is time to move on from any corrective trading and focus on making cash (if you can find a rookie …) and finding value (if you can find a premium that is actually a premium).</p>



<p>Let’s take another look at the highly owned players to understand what is going on in the rankings.</p>



<p>Per previous weeks, I will use a metric called “Pain/Gain points” – see explainer <a href="http://13.210.220.211/2023/03/23/ownership-analysis-pain-and-gain-points-round-1/">here</a></p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Gainers</strong></h2>



<ul><li>Daicos (151) and Taranto (114) continue to post great scores but don’t get too excited – they are in pretty much every highly ranked team.</li><li>Mid-pricers reign supreme as Hopper (75), Horne-Francis (95), Setterfield (87), Day (107) and Ziebell (92) again feature. It’s looking like leaning mid-price was the right starting call, it was just a matter of picking the right ones (i.e. not Bruhn, Liam Jones, Flanders, Callaghan or Fyfe). The decision now becomes when do you sell?</li><li>Finally, a few interesting anti-top-1000 pods in Rampe (108) and J. Cameron (156). They are both outperforming their price and putting up great scores but are in a smaller proportion of the top 1,000 teams than overall – go figure.</li></ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="497" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.54.04-am-1024x497.png" alt="" class="wp-image-2232765" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.54.04-am-1024x497.png 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.54.04-am-300x146.png 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.54.04-am-768x373.png 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.54.04-am-640x311.png 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.54.04-am.png 1158w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Painful</strong></h2>



<ul><li>More pain from our so called premiums as seemingly sensible starting picks Docherty (71), Laird (97) and Neale (102) again underperformed and are the three most damaging picks of the year.</li><li> Throw in Sicily (76) and Coniglio (71) this week and that’s five guys you could have easily started with – Yikes. They will be at a nice price in the coming weeks – if we back them to return to form …</li><li>Docherty (injured) has to go and is the main move this week. Many are looking to Dawson ($618k) or Stewart ($572k) – but don’t be afraid to look at a POD in Sinclair ($577k) or Dale ($534k).</li><li>Dunkley (84) wasn’t at his usual best but is in so many teams (70% / 97%) that it didn’t hurt you.</li><li>Oliver (121) scored just under his price point … I still wish I had him though.</li></ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="373" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.55.16-am-1024x373.png" alt="" class="wp-image-2232766" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.55.16-am-1024x373.png 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.55.16-am-300x109.png 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.55.16-am-768x280.png 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.55.16-am-640x233.png 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.55.16-am.png 1136w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Top 1000</strong></h2>



<ul><li>This graphic shows who the top 1,000 have a greater share in compared to the rest of the comp. We can see just how similar a lot of these teams are with how many of these players are owned by more than 80% of the top 1,000.</li><li>Dawson stands out from those below as one who is performing strongly but still isn’t in a majority of teams (and is on 150+ as I write this … ).</li><li>The next question is when to jump off the rookies and mid-pricers. Most look to be holding off trading this week with only slight dips in ownership numbers for Ginbey, Mackenzie, Philipou etc. You might be able to catch out the competition if you go early but I would be worried about your long term cash generation and would want to have nailed all the key rookies and not used too many trades if doing so.</li></ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="612" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.56.20-am-1024x612.png" alt="" class="wp-image-2232767" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.56.20-am-1024x612.png 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.56.20-am-300x179.png 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.56.20-am-768x459.png 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.56.20-am-640x383.png 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.56.20-am-1200x717.png 1200w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-14-at-10.56.20-am.png 1258w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



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Ownership analysis: Pain and gain points, Round 4

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