Final word: Strategy, skippers, trades, Round 2

Cracking first round of NRL with plenty of close games and of course the huge upset of the Dolphins beating the Roosters.

If the weekend was a sign of things to come then its going to be a great year! In terms of Supercoach scoring it was not a bad round with 6 x scores posted over 100.

Plenty of cheapies and mid-rangers delivered performances that saw them well exceed their break evens.

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Strategy

How did I go with stacking my side with value propositions? The best gauge of the players that are the best Value Propositions is the $ per point category offered on the Supercoach website.  

Just a reminder that a Value Proposition player is one that is underpriced and represents good to great value and will average better than their priced average to start the season (reflected as their Rd-1 breakeven).

Small sample size but I am happy to own 3 of the top 5 players in this category after round-1. The top-5 in this category were Hopgood, Isaako, Hutchinson, Cartwright and Luke. Fortunately I own Hopgood, Cartwirght and Soni Luke.

As I mentioned last week in the article, in Round One of last year 12 out of the 25 players I chose in my squad scored better than their breakeven, and when I looked at the differential with points scored vs breakevens my squad scored +46. This year I was aiming for 17 x players and 150+ differential. How did I go?  

Didn’t quite hit target on the number of players with 16 out of 25 beating their break even but a good differential of +267 as to points scored take away break evens for my 25-man squad.

Strategy starts early in the season with the question of whether to trade or not to trade early? Should you stick solid with the players you’ve picked or maximise trades early to make sure you can fix any mistakes? I tend to lean toward the latter.

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PODs & SuperPODs

Here are the players I’ve identified as PODs (Point of Difference players – less than 10% owned) and SuperPODS (less than 2% owned) that should be on your radar. I’ve listed them in ranking order of who I believe is the best to take the risk on:

PODs

1. DCE – Sure the old fella is not going to score a hattrick every game but Manly are a side that looks fit, fast and confident, and DCE will ride the wave. Could be worth riding his hot streak and then moving to a more consistent scorer later in the year.    
2. Jamayne Isaako – Goalkicking winger and the Dolphins actually looked pretty decent in attack. It’d be a punt but he’s very reasonably priced at under $400k
3. Junior Paulo – Huge minutes for Paulo admittedly in a golden point game. Nonetheless he was impressive all the same. Keep a close eye on him.  
4. Josh King – What are we to make of Josh King’s first outing? The try assist accompanied with the line break assist is probably not something we’d expect to occur too often but even then, great base output from the Storm workhorse means he has to be considered.
5. Brent Naden – I felt the Tigers looked promising in their first hitout and Naden looked one of the most dangerous of all the players due in no small part to the expansive nature of their attack. Reasonably priced.  

SuperPODs

1. Jeremy Marshall-King – Had a super 2022 at the bulldogs and behind probably a superior pack at the Dolphins. He looks primed to hit his straps.
2. Connolly Lemuelu  – I have always liked the explosive nature of Lemuelu up at the Cowboys and he seems set to make a mark for himself at the Dolphins.

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Close Watch

This segment will list the players to keep a close watch on over the next month for their Supercoach prospects:

1. Shaun Johnson – Didn’t play that well and still pumped out a 74. Appears to have the goalkicking secured. If he gets hot we know what he can do, and it’s good to see him running more in Round 1.
2. Kenny Bromwich – 75 SC points in basically pure base. Played 68mins. Interesting watch  

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Round 2 Match-ups

Harry Grant against a Bulldogs side that looks like it may struggle a bit. The Storm will also likely focus attention to the middle of the field with Munster out. Dunno if I can get him in but wish I started with him that’s for sure.  

David Fifita, Jojo Fifita, Alofiana Khan-Pereira, Tanah Boyd, Alex Brimson get another tasty match-up when they take on the Dragons who have had a shocking off-season starting with the debacle where only three players turned up to Presentation night. If that doesn’t say that something stinks at the club, I don’t what does.

Fifita is another gun I didn’t start with but could be left rueing my decision. Foran’s fitness is key though.

Kalyn Ponga, Adam Douehi, Brent Naden all get a decent match up when the Tigers take on the Knights at Leichardt Oval. Neither side seems to have that good of a defence and both sides like to attack.

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Captain

Safe Play

James Tedesco – Roosters get the Warriors following a poor showing against the Dolphins in Round-1. Tedesco will be embarrassed by his team’s performance and will want to make amends. Look for a big game from him!

Left-field options

Seriously considering Adam Douehi or Kalyn Ponga. Just the way the Tigers played Round-1 leads me to think this could be an old-fashioned shootout with plenty of attack and points scored.  

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Betr Bets of the Week

Please Gamble Responsibly, 18+ only.

Round 1 Best Bets (Odds courtesy of Betr) – Recap

Tryscorer Multi – Montoya/Garrick/Tedesco @ $5.05 x $40

Return = $0

Multi – Manly-2.5/Cowboys/Sths/Titans @ $7.65 x $40

Return = $306

First Tryscorer – A Khan-Pereira (Titans) @ $10 x $20

Return=$0

(ROI = 206%)

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Round 2 Best Bets (Odds courtesy of Betr)

Multi – Warriors +12.5/Dolphins +5.5/Titans +3.5 @$6.59 x $50

Anytime Tryscorer Multi – E.Kosi/N.Asofa-Solomona/K.Ponga @$62 x $10

Nathan Cleary Last Tryscorer @ $17 x $10

Payne Haas Anytime tryscorer @ $11 x $10

Thomas Flegler Anytime tryscorer @ $15 x $10

SGM – ATS I.Papaali/D. Nofoaluma/D.Young/H.Hunt* @$29 x $10

*If Greg Marzhew comes in for H.Hunt just replace him in the SGM