Half season heroes: Analysing the in-form players heading into 2023


<p>It seems logical doesn’t it – that player who dominated the back half of last season is certain to keep on rising – and you can get them at a discount too because of their poor first half! Well not so fast, let’s take a look historically at how well these picks have performed.</p>



<p><strong><em>Sign up to SC Playbook in 2023! Gain access to stacks of additional premium articles every week during the pre-season and regular season, our major subscriber prize, our Whatsapp community featuring Q&amp;A’s with our team of contributors, and plenty of other bonus features.</em></strong>&nbsp;<strong><a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="http://13.210.220.211/subscribe/" target="_blank"><em>SUBSCRIBE HERE!</em></a></strong></p>



<a id="S2c_AE-cT85RUjdMKou1xg" class="gie-single" href="http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/1470712091" target="_blank" style="color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;" rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'S2c_AE-cT85RUjdMKou1xg',sig:'FZW7mdFKAjNn4oN8QOkPIpE1ltMyfzaxY6x2MX6fFn0=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1470712091',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src="//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" async=""></script>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Since 2015, let’s look at players</strong>:</h2>



<ul><li>Aged 24 and under</li><li>Lifted their average by 10 or more points in the second half of the season (H2)</li><li>Average more than 95 in H2</li><li>Played a nominal number of games in each half (at least 3 in H1, 7 in H2)</li><li>Only averaged under 100 previously – i.e. haven’t broken out yet</li><li>Remove any games with time on ground less than 50%</li></ul>



<p><strong><em>We’ve linked up with Betr for the 2023 footy season! Each week of the AFL season we’ll be delivering our SC Playbook unique market, to kick things off, we’re starting with a futures multi around Lions draftee Will Ashcroft to&nbsp;win AFL rising&nbsp;star into 10+ Brownlow Medal votes at $11!</em></strong>&nbsp;<strong><a href="https://record.betraffiliates.com.au/_GpV01n98OwWuqxJ1W5ErsWNd7ZgqdRLk/1/sportsbook#/sport/35/futures/">FOLLOW HERE</a></strong></p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="819" height="1024" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/333111683_755251679319463_9093629773451813449_n-819x1024.png" alt="" class="wp-image-2231227" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/333111683_755251679319463_9093629773451813449_n-819x1024.png 819w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/333111683_755251679319463_9093629773451813449_n-240x300.png 240w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/333111683_755251679319463_9093629773451813449_n-768x960.png 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/333111683_755251679319463_9093629773451813449_n-640x800.png 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/333111683_755251679319463_9093629773451813449_n.png 1080w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>How well did they do in the next season?</strong></h2>



<ul><li>Let’s call it a good pick if their season average is up 5% or more, bad if their season average is down 5% or more and neutral if in the middle.</li><li>We get some interesting results: 14 bad picks (45%), 8 neutral picks (26%) and 9 good picks (29%). Not as good as I thought it would be …</li><li>On average, this group was 15% down on their H2 average the year after and 3% down on their full season.</li><li>Some examples of winners – Jordan Dawson in 2022 (100.2 to 109.5), Sam Walsh in 2021 (101.1 to 117), Josh Dunkley in 2019 (95.1 to 116.5) and James Sicily in 2018 (88.4 to 105.1).</li><li>And some classic season destroyers – Tarryn Thomas in 2022 (95.3 to 54.4), James Worpel in 2020 (103.7 to 88.3), Jack Billings in 2018 (98.1 to 80.6) and Kade Kolodjashnij in 2016 (96.4 to 70.7).</li><li>It seems easy in hindsight but the rule may be – don’t trust the half-season bump when they are a forward or a defender and be sceptical of the b-grade midfielders.</li><li>Full list below!</li></ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="404" height="192" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Picture-1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-2231722" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Picture-1.png 404w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Picture-1-300x143.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 404px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>This year’s crop</strong></h2>



<ul><li>We have some popular selections indeed! Plenty of teams will have multiple selections out of the below.</li><li>The defenders are suspect to me – I am avoiding Redman, Richards and Rioli. It is also hard to trust Butters after the roller coaster ride of 2022.</li><li>Rozee and Daicos look to be class, as evidenced by their 14 and 11 Brownlow votes – they could be the choice here. Just watch out for the tag.</li><li>I couldn’t blame you for going Anderson or Davies-Uniacke either – but at a price tag of $550k, are they going to be top midfielders? And is the risk greater than the reward?</li></ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="604" height="576" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Picture-1-1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-2231723" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Picture-1-1.png 604w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Picture-1-1-300x286.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 604px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Full List</strong></h2>


Half season heroes: Analysing the in-form players heading into 2023

Discussion (0)