Quantium data analysis: Rd 21, vital numbers to beat the best

Statistics specialist Adam Driussi provides invaluable breakdowns to allow you to differ your side from those atop the rankings.

NRL

Analysing the top 100,000 NRL Supercoach teams after Round 21

Round 20 was a brutal week for those who have no trades left. 

Nathan Cleary’s 5-week suspension combined with injuries and suspensions to Mitch Moses, Nick Meaney, Will Kennedy and Patrick Carrigan mean that some teams are going to have a very long finish to the season.

With 94% of the top 100 owning Cleary alone, this is a stark reminder of why you need to save trades for the end of the season. 

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7% of the top 100 teams own both Cleary and Moses – one of whom (team 12) has no trades left – and hence no halfback for the final five weeks of the season!

Speaking of trades, the top 100 teams have just 2.7 trades left on average – so call it 1.7 after dealing with Cleary.  The top 10 have just 2.3 trades on average. 

Let’s first take a look at player ownership by position after Round 20.   

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Fullback

The table below sets out the proportion of teams in the top 100, top 1,000, top 5,000, top 10,000, top 20,000 and top 100,000 that own each fullback. 

11% of the top 100 own one of Nick Meaney, Kalyn Ponga, Will Kennedy or Blake Taaffe.

CTW

While still heavily owned, many are starting to sell Penrith’s left edge of Izack Tago and Taylan May which is likely to increase this week with their halves pairing out long-term.

Valentine Holmes is now owned by 48% of the top 100 ranked team, a figure that will grow substantially this week as people move on Cleary via duals.

Five-eighth

Cameron Munster is now the most owned five-eighth.  Matt Burton is now owned by 13% of the top 100.  Adam Doueihi (at 2% ownership) is a huge POD for those who own him or who have the luxury of bringing him in.

Halfback

94% of the top 100 and 97% of the top 1,000 teams are impacted by Nathan Cleary’s suspension.  A further 8% of the top 100 teams own Mitchell Moses.

7% of the top 100 own both Cleary and Moses.  87% of teams owned just Cleary, 1% owned just Moses and five teams in the top 100 (teams 3, 44, 61, 69 and 73) own neither Moses nor Cleary.

2RF

10% of teams sold Haumole Olakau’atu.  In contrast, around 8% of teams brought in Cameron Murray.  Only 1 team in the top 100 own Patrick Carrigan.

FRF

12% of teams last week brought in Payne Haas.  David Klemmer’s mystery team suspension impacts around 20% of teams.

HOK

Harry Grant dominates ownership at hooker – including 73% of the top 100 (up 8% versus last week).  Whilst Harry has the highest season average at hooker, it is worth noting that he only averages 57 over the last 8 rounds – compared to averaging 95 in the first 7 rounds!

In saying that, I’d hate not to own him against the Titans this week.

Round 20 Captaincy Selection

Captaincy selection once again proved crucial in Round 20.   Approximately 20% of teams captained Cleary and were badly hurt by his send off.

3% of the top 100 captained Joseph Tapine and were rewarded with a monster score of 113.

Remaining Trades

The table below sets out how many trades each of the top 10, 20, 50 and 100 teams have left.  The top 100 teams on average have just 2.7 trades left.  So much for saving trades!  This falls to an average of 2.3 amongst the top 10 teams. 

Within the top 20, three teams are already out of trades and two teams have only one trade.  One team in the top 20 has 7 trades left!

With 94 of the top 100 owning Nathan Cleary, many teams will be running on fumes over the remainder of the season. 

With trades running so low, depth is going to be crucial for many teams in the run home. 

Those teams with nuffs stashed on their bench and with no trades risk playing short in the last few weeks.

On average, the top 100 have 3.6 players unavailable for selection long-term.

18 of the top 100 teams have five or more players unavailable for selection for the rest of the year.  Any of these teams who are also low on trades are in big trouble.

Good luck to everyone in Round 20.  Hopefully my Bulldogs can spring an upset in Bundaberg!

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