Data Analysis: Round 20, who decides it from here?

Data analyst Joe Kenny breaks down the key statistics to help give your side an edge on AFL SuperCoach rivals.

AFL

Not long to go now. Like me, you’re probably a few moves short of the team you’d like and don’t have the trades to get there. We can still check in on this year’s most relevant players to guide our last trade or try and learn something for next year.

Round 19 gave us a mixed bag of scores with many of the same underperformers (looking at you Crisp, Short, Petracca and Dunkley) as recent weeks and strong scoring from those not in your team (hello Laird and Sinclair). Stewart is looking a tempting trade in this week and could give you the edge you need for that last push up the rankings or league final.

Let’s take a similar view to last week and see how the most selected players by the top 1,000 have been faring line by line.

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Defence

  • The back six would appear to be fairly generic across the top 1,000 with high ownership numbers across the top seven players. The key decision looks to be whether you trade in Stewart (at an achievable $562k) – if you have the trades.
  • Sinclair, also known as the sixth highest scoring player of the year, is the clear standout amongst the highly owned. If you don’t have him, you are falling behind.
  • Anyone with Nick Daicos (113 3Rd avg) or Himmelberg (120 3Rd avg) – well done.
  • Hewett is out again and is no guarantee for next week. I think you have to move him on if you can.
Player NameAvgTop 1000 Own %3Rd AvgForm
James Sicily11493.7%101.0cold
Jack Sinclair11484.9%120.0steady
Jayden Short10083.4%90.3steady
Jack Crisp9967.8%83.0cold
Sam Docherty10865.5%99.0steady
George Hewett11160.2%101.3cold
Jordan Dawson10955.8%88.3cold
Nick Daicos9220.9%113.7hot
Bailey Dale10614.0%99.7steady
Harry Himmelberg9113.1%120.0hot
Dan Houston1009.2%84.3cold
Tom Stewart1155.0%98.3cold

*Form: cold equals 3 RD avg 10 points less than season, hot equals 3 RD avg 10 points more than season

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Midfield

  • Neale, Macrae and Miller are in the majority of top 1,000 teams so won’t help or hurt your ranking too much.
  • Laird (140 3Rd avg) and Merrett (139 3Rd avg) have been the best recent performers of the comparatively lesser owned players – so whether you own both or not is likely a big reason for how your rankings have moved over the past few weeks.
  • Steele (128 3Rd avg) could be a nice trade in at $587k if you are looking for a cheaper or lesser owned option. You could even look at a sideways trade if you have lost faith in the likes of Brayshaw or Petracca.
Player NameAvgTop 1000 Own %3Rd AvgForm
Lachie Neale12699.5%111.0cold
Jack Macrae11997.0%107.7cold
Touk Miller12096.6%134.0hot
Clayton Oliver12985.1%132.0steady
Rory Laird12776.9%139.7hot
Patrick Cripps10973.1%98.0cold
Christian Petracca11048.1%104.3steady
Zach Merrett11344.1%138.7hot
Andrew Brayshaw11240.3%102.3steady
Callum Mills11838.6%117.0steady
Sam Walsh11435.3%108.3steady
Jack Steele11433.1%128.3hot

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Ruck

  • I would have thought the ruck scoring would be zero-sum to some extent in that if a few were down in scoring someone else should be up – but it seems that is not the case. At least we are all in the same boat.
  • There doesn’t look to be a clear trade in option based on recent form so it would seem most sensible to hold for now.
Player NameAvgTop 1000 Own%3Rd AvgForm
Jarrod Witts11191.3%93.7cold
Sean Darcy10356.3%99.3steady
Tim English11217.5%90.0cold
Darcy Cameron8610.2%80.7steady
Todd Goldstein966.4%110.0hot
Reilly O’Brien1036.2%86.7cold
Max Gawn1135.7%98.3cold
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Forwards

  • We are fairly similar for the top 1,000 across the forwards with a clear top five in particular.
  • Is anyone going to be game enough to jump off Dunkley (70 3Rd avg)? He looks to still have the role based on his AFL fantasy score of 102 points last round so could turn it around. Nevertheless, one to look at moving on if you are looking to make a high risk, high reward trade.
Player NameAvgTop 1000 Ownership3Rd AvgForm
Josh Dunkley10595.6%69.7cold
M. Bontempelli11987.9%147.7hot
Will Brodie10387.3%89.0cold
Stephen Coniglio10286.0%104.7steady
Luke Parker10378.6%101.0steady
Tim English11248.0%90.0cold
Isaac Heeney9921.5%107.3steady
Tom Liberatore10717.9%108.7steady
Darcy Cameron8616.0%80.7steady
Harry Himmelberg9114.4%120.0hot

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