Data Analysis: Round 19, who decides the title race?

Data analyst Joe Kenny breaks down the key statistics to help give your side an edge on AFL SuperCoach rivals.

AFL

We are heading towards the finishing line and getting to the point where our teams are what they are – whether we like it or not. Some of us might have a move or two left in the bank, but what to do might not be so clear.

To paint a picture of the remaining weeks, I will take a look at the top 1,000 ownership by line and how they have been scoring. This will show us which players will be the difference to the rankings and highlight who we can look at moving out or in.

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Defence:

  • Most teams would probably have six out of the top seven owned below.
  • They optimal setup of late has been to have Sinclair (131 three round average) and not own Crisp (82 three round average). Will this continue for the remainder of the season?
  • Nick Daicos has been on an absolute tear (135 three round average) – well done to those who held (just don’t tell me it was on purpose!).

*Form: cold equals 3 RD avg 10 points less than season, hot equals 3 RD avg 10 points more than season

Midfield:

  • The midfield has been a little more spread out with the main options below.
  • The advantage lately has been for those who don’t own Cripps (91 three round average). Do you use one of your few remaining trades to jump off now or back a return to form?
  • Oliver was sold off by about 15% of coaches after missing last week’s game. Can they bring him back in or will he make them pay?
  • Merrett and Petracca were at the top of the trade out list a few weeks ago showing us how quickly things can change. Will the same thing happen with Cripps and Kelly?

Ruck:

  • There doesn’t look to be a clear best Ruck setup after a year of injuries and inconsistent scoring from just about all of them.
  • Witts is the most popular (91%) of teams but might have run out of steam. Do you make a bold decision and trade him out?
  • Darcy is the real point of difference in the top 1,000 at just over 50% ownership. His performance will play a large part in how the top rankings play out.

Forwards:

  • We have a clear top five that are in most sides, with the final spot being filled by one of multiple options.
  • Dunkley’s scoring has been down lately (81 three round average) – is he a trade out candidate? The same can be said for Will Brodie (89 three round average). Liberatore looks the best option for a trade in, if you can spare the cash and the trade.
  • Tim English is in roughly half of the forward lines (and a further 16% of rucks). How he scores versus Darcy could be a huge factor in the run home.

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