Quantium data analysis: Rd 16, vital numbers to beat the best

Statistics specialist Adam Driussi provides invaluable breakdowns to allow you to differ your side from those atop the rankings.


Analysing the top 100,000 NRL Supercoach teams after Round 15

As a Bulldogs supporter, I loved Round 15. 

As a Supercoach, I found it slightly frustrating. Between semi-PODs such as Campbell Graham, Cody Walker and Ronaldo Mulitalo stinking it up and popular players (that I don’t own) such as Cameron Munster and Damien Cook scoring well, I found myself staring at a red arrow on Monday morning despite what felt like a semi-respectable round.

Round 17 looms as a seriously challenging bye round.  Most teams are likely struggling for numbers and a quick glance at the most traded in players on the Supercoach site suggests that there aren’t a lot of obvious Round 17 “must-haves” at this point. 

The lack of obvious Round 17 cheapies prior to teams being announced in a couple of weeks also makes trading prior to Round 16 especially challenging.

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The table below sets out the proportion of teams in the top 100, top 1,000, top 5,000, top 10,000, top 20,000 and top 100,000 that own each fullback. 

Round 15 only saw small movements in player ownership at fullback.

William Kennedy’s ownership amongst the top 20,000 teams increased from 0% to 4% (and as high as 6% amongst the top 1,000 teams) as some teams started planning early for Round 17. 

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With scores of -10 and -2 in the rolling history, Kennedy is down approx. $200k on his season starting price so I can see why he would attract some interest. 

2% of teams also brought in Alex Johnston (now owned by 9% of the top 1,000).  The key player sold down amongst the leading teams was Joseph Suaalii.  Suaalii is now owned by 22% of the top 1,000 – down 6% versus last week.


With Round 17 around the corner, CTW looms as one of the key positions where there are viable ‘keepers’ playing in 17.  As such, we’ve continued to see an increase in the ownership of Campbell Graham and Ronaldo Mulitalo – both of whom disappointed for their new owners.

Both Graham and Mulitalo are owned by approx. 50% of the top 100 and 45% of the top 1,000 – both up about 10% versus last week.

The big move at CTW was for Brian To’o.  Last week Bizza was owned by just 1% of the top 20,000 teams (and 1% of the top 100, top 1,000 etc).  He is now owned by 35% of the top 100, 29% of the top 1,000 and 19% of the top 20,000.  As a new owner, I certainly appreciated the garbage time try!  

Approximately 10% of teams across the board brought in Grant Anderson.  I can understand the cash grab but surely his place in Round 17 is far from certain.  He will be a tricky decision in Round 16 if he is picked again.  

Approximately 3% of teams brought in Siosifa Talakai last week.  No doubt his origin selection will be causing those coaches some frustration – although with Jack Wighton and Latrell Mitchell due back there is every possibility that Talakai is still available in Round 17.

The key CTWs sold off during the week included Euan Aitken (now owned by 9% of the top 1,000 versus 32% last week), Ben Trbojevic (35% to 28%) and Viliami Vailea (20% to 15%).


There wasn’t a huge amount of change at five-eighth last week. 

7% of teams in the top 100,000 (but not near the lead) who missed out on Ezra Mam last week brought him in at the expense of Luke Keary or Jackson Hastings. 

Josh Schuster could be a bargain after the bye period if he ever gets a starting role.  At a price of under $300k he will be hard to resist!


Similar to five-eighth, there was minimal change in ownership at half back last week.


Perhaps in a sign that there aren’t a lot of obvious Round 17 targets at 2RF, there wasn’t a lot of change in ownership at 2RF last week.

Around 5% of teams brought in Keaon Koloamatangi and an additional 3% brought in Cameron McInnes.  The other player who was purchased (by teams in the 20-100k range) was Jason Taumalolo.

The main players sold off beyond those DPPs already discussed were Nat Butcher and Heilum Luki.


The main change in ownership at FRF was a 5% increase in ownership for David Klemmer and a 5%+ increase in ownership for Max King.  As a Bulldogs fan, how good does Max King look?!  He will be a hard player to sell in current form!

The main player sold off at FRF was Payne Haas.  Haas is now owned by just 30% of the top 100 and 42% of the top 1,000 (versus 47% and 60% this time last week). 


Reuben Cotter’s late withdrawal presumably caused chaos amongst some teams.  28% of the top 100 and 37% of the top 10,000 still own Cotter.  No doubt that will change this week.

Api Koroisau and Reece Robson have done a wonderful job for those of us who brought them in during the Origin period.

Round 15 Captaincy Choices

With 92% of the top 1,000 captaining Nathan Cleary last week and a further 6% captaining Nicho Hynes captaincy choice had almost no impact on Round 15 scores.   

With rep round ahead of Round 16, coaches have plenty of time to think through their trades for next week.  Let’s hope that all the players can get through rep round with minimal injuries. 

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