Data analysis: Structure check up, Round 13

Data analyst Joe Kenny breaks down the key statistics to help give your side an edge on AFL SuperCoach rivals.

AFL

We are one bye week down and have two to go. However you scored, it’s a new week and we have another opportunity to surge up the rankings or watch it all go up in flames.

You would have wanted to score around 1,900 last week with anything over that a bonus. This was fairly achievable if you had Max Gawn and avoided the handful of premium players that scored poorly (Stewart, Darcy, B. Smith, Petracca). The playbook this week is fairly simple – trade in a round 12 premium (as they have already had their bye), pray for kindness at the selection table and try and field a full team.

To help you prepare for this week, let’s check in on how the top 1,000 are structured heading into the most difficult bye round.

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Bye Structures

The table below shows the average number of players and points that the top teams would field in each bye round with their current teams.

  • The current top 1,000 fielded a fairly strong team on average for round 12 with about 20 players and 14 premiums. This will be a little skewed to teams that have loaded up on the first bye round though – the true test will be rankings after round 14.
  • This group is now looking a little light on for round 13 with an average of 16.9 field players and 12.4 premiums before trades. This is looking like the lowest scoring week, so don’t stress too much if you too are struggling – just try and get to 18 on field.
  • Round 14 continues to look strong, but is a little down in terms of premium player count (13). Expect coaches to add a further 2-3 premiums by the time next round starts.
ByesRd 12Rd 13Rd 14
Avg. no. of Scoring Players*19.716.920.2
Premium / Keeper Players13.712.412.9
Scoring players points avg.195816781887

*Scoring player equals played in team’s most recent game

Premium/Keeper= FWD, DEF avg. > 90 | MID avg. > 105| RUC avg. > 100

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Premium Count

In terms of team structure, we can see the count per line of premium players for our top teams.

  • The count of premium players is fairly stable on last week at 20, as I suspect coaches either used their trades to move on Preuss or traded down to load up for this week.
  • The sum of on field average scores is up to 2,382 to give some idea of what a par score will be like after the byes and this number should only get higher over the next two weeks.
  • Teams are now averaging over two non-playing players with Preuss, Hamilton, Teakle and Uwland leading the charge for non-playing selections in the top 1,000.
StructureDEFMIDRUCFWDTotal
Avg. no. of Scoring Players*7.310.52.37.427.5
Premium / Keeper Players5.47.22.15.019.6
Scoring players points avg.640.4922.2227.7591.92382.2
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Generic Top 1,000 “Why doesn’t my team look like this” Team

Based on the most selected premiums and non-premiums, we can form a consensus top 1,000 team.

  • In terms of representation:
    • Gawn (120 avg) displaces Preuss (110 avg) as consensus ruck.
    • Mitch Owens takes the place of Jack Carroll as consensus 11th midfielder.
    • Laird is the next midfielder in line whilst English and Bontempelli could soon feature with the forwards.
  • The main moves look to be a combination of:
    • Trading out Preuss / Sam Hayes for one of English, Gawn and a lesser extent Darcy (whoops!).
    • Bringing in rookies Mitch Owens or Joel Jeffrey.
    • Some coaches also look to have moved on early season flyers as both Heeney (132 fewer selections) and Tom Green (161 fewer selections) are now less represented.
Consensus Top 1000 Team
AvgAvg
George Hewett118Lachie Neale131
James Sicily117Clayton Oliver126
Tom Stewart113Jack Macrae119
Jack Sinclair113Touk Miller118
Jayden Short107Patrick Cripps115
Jack Crisp104Andrew Brayshaw113
Patrick McCartin73Christian Petracca107
Buku Khamis40Greg Clark69
Robbie McComb57
Cooper Stephens52
Mitch Owens46
AvgAvg
Josh Dunkley112Max Gawn120
Will Brodie107Jarrod Witts120
Luke Parker104Sam Hayes73
Zak Butters93
Stephen Coniglio93
Sam De Koning66
Malcolm Rosas59
Maurice Rioli55

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