Data analysis: Structure check up

Data analyst Joe Kenny breaks down the key statistics to help give your side an edge on AFL SuperCoach rivals.


The byes are one week closer and will be pivotal to how your end of year ranking ends up. I will take a similar look as last week at how the top 1,000 is structured and what the generic team made up of the most picked players looks like.

A score of around 2,350 would have held you in good stead last week as we saw some big scores and ever improving teams (congrats if you held Coniglio and captained Oliver!). Definitely think about the byes for any trades this week and even plan out how you will upgrade your team. You want to have enough cash left over to upgrade each spot (so think about this before spending $600k+ on a given player).

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Bye Structures:

The table below shows the average number of players and points that the top teams would field in each bye round with their current teams. 

Round 12 was looking particularly low for players and points but this looks to have levelled out somewhat. Generally speaking, coaches seem to have traded out a round 12 bye player and traded in a round 13 bye player. The most common move looks to have been trading out N. Martin / Coniglio / Steele for G. Clark or a midfield premium (Oliver, Petracca, Brayshaw etc.). These two rounds are now looking equally lower scoring with round 14 expected to be a very strong.

I will be looking to set up my team with a slight advantage heading into each of these rounds and will not be holding back on any trades – this is the time to make some moves up the rankings.

ByesRd 12Rd 13Rd 14
Avg. no. of Scoring Players17.918.221.1
Avg. no. Premium / Keeper Players12.313.013.2
Sum of scoring players points avg.1745.61806.01961.2

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Premium Count:

In terms of team structure, we can see the count per line of premium players for our top teams.

There doesn’t appear to have been too drastic a change in terms of premiums added or fielded average points compared to last week (2,324 to 2,315). The main change is that the model thinks Coniglio and Butters are keepers again (average over 90). How you answer this will probably play a key part in how the rest of your year goes. Keep or trade?

Expect coaches to fill out their team over the next few weeks with roughly one premium defender, midfielder and forward remaining.

Scoring Players Avg7.510.43.07.728.6
Premium / Keeper Avg5.
Avg Points623.9892.7220.5578.42315.6
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Generic Top 1000 Team:

Based on the above table, we can form a consensus top 1,000 team based on the most selected premiums and non-premiums. 

There wasn’t too much movement in the generic team this week, with the main change being Steele moving out for Andrew Brayshaw. G. Clark saw the largest ownership increase (+524) but was already in a fair number of top 1,000 teams (424) – so much for waiting for the bubble. Most coaches look to have moved out one of Coniglio (-20% ownership in the top 1,000), Martin (-32%) or Daicos (-36%) – however they remain in enough teams to stay in the consensus squad.

It looks fairly straightforward in terms of completing your defence and midfield – there are plenty of good options. They key questions look to be – which bulldogs players do you finish your forward line with (Bontempelli, Smith, English, Liberatore)? Do you keep Coniglio and Butters? And what will happen with our rucks? 

Consensus Top 1000 Team
Avg Avg
George Hewett118Lachie Neale132
James Sicily116Clayton Oliver126
Sam Docherty110Jack Macrae122
Jayden Short109Christian Petracca117
Jack Crisp106Patrick Cripps116
Nick Daicos80Andrew Brayshaw114
Patrick McCartin70Touk Miller114
Sam De Koning64Greg Clark74
Maurice Rioli60
Robbie McComb58
Jack Carroll55
Josh Dunkley114Jarrod Witts120
Isaac Heeney106Braydon Preuss110
Will Brodie105Sam Hayes75
Stephen Coniglio93
Zak Butters92
Nic Martin82
Cooper Hamilton61
Malcolm Rosas54

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