Money movers: Players to trade/target to up cap value, Round 11

2021 AFL SuperCoach runner-up Steve Nikolovski assesses all the key players set to make big cash, and those set to plummet in value.


Another high scoring round with Clarry going large as a popular Captain choice. 

Another decent rank rise for me and I hope you had the same luck last week. 

My week would’ve been much better if I sold Nic Martin instead of Stephen Coniglio… I was pretty harsh in my article last week around Cogs, however playing the break-even game he was a sell 100 times out of 100. I think holders got lucky with so many midfield players out for the Giants and the fact they played subpar opposition. We will find out next week for sure whether the sale was a massive mistake or not when they tackle a Lions outfit coming off a loss. 

Okay, enough of that, let’s see what the best buys and sells are this week looking at the break-evens.

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Rookies to consider trading in:

PlayerPosBEPriceProjected ScoreProj $ Change
Luke Cleary*D-67$117,30068+$60.1k
Jake SoligoM-58$168,80048+$47.1k
Cooper Stephens*M-57$123,90065+$54.4k
Joel Jeffrey*F-45$127,40039+$37.5k
Rhylee West*F-41$187,80044+$38.1k
Jesse Motlop*F-5$117,30037+$18.7k
Sam Butler*M / F2$117,30034+$14.2k
Jackson Callow*F7$123,90033+$11.6k
Kyron Hayden*D15$199,60038+$10.5k

*Indicates player is on the bubble

Top Trade ins:

  1. Luke Cleary – Once again we have a clear (mind the pun) top pick as the #1 rookie trade in option.  The only concern is job security with Taylor Duryea sniffing about.  Check the teams and if he’s named we can pick him and hope he continues to play well and hold his spot.
  2. Cooper Stephens – Job security is an issue as he only played his second game due to late changes.  However, Danger is out and that could open a spot for him.
  3. Jesse Motlop – Not sure his scoring potential is good enough.  I’m expecting 30 and 40’s to continue as small forward.
  4. Sam Butler – Can’t really recommend but I expect him to hold his spot after a good win last weekend.
  5. Jake Soligo / Rhylee West – I think job security is still an issue with these guys and the inflated prices make them an avoid in my eyes.

Premiums to consider trading in:

PlayerPosBEPriceProjected ScoreProj $ Change
Brad CrouchM45$529,500110+$28.9k
Jack ZiebellD / F45$328,50049+$2k
Braydon PreussR46$457,100110+$28.4k
Callum WilkieD48$459,900102+$24k
Dion PrestiaM55$471,50081+$11.6k
Adam TreloarM / F56$505,40097+$18.3k
Harry PerrymanD56$487,20091+$15.6k
Bailey SmithM65$552,800112+$21.1k
Caleb SerongM65$479,900103+$17k
Jack SinclairD / M67$530,200101+$15k
Josh KellyM68$591,500127+$26.5k
Toby NankervisR68$527,400105+$16.6k
Jarryd LyonsM70$510,00092+$10k
Marcus BontempelliM91$587,500110+$8.4k
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Top Trade ins:

  1. Marcus Bontempelli – Pretty much locked in for forward status after this week which is absolutely huge!  A low break-even for him and you get his points on field v West Coast if you go early this week and bring him into your Mids. Obviously, not projected to rise too much so you can also wait a week if you wish. Either way, you’re not going to have a bigger must-have this year.
  2. Bailey Smith – Playing nearly 100% TOG, resting forward and will most likely get forward status too!  Getting huge disposal numbers and averaging very well. Smith is a better pick on price and break-even, but if you have the cash go with Bont who is the bigger must-have.
  3. Jack Sinclair – What a season this guy is having. Defender eligible and playing in the middle, he’s dropped a 138 and plays North this week. Make sure you’re okay with your round 12 bye first.
  4. Josh Kelly – Absolutely flying lately with a 5 round average of 122.4. Two 150+ scores in the last 4 weeks.
  5. Brad Crouch – If you’re little strapped for cash like me you could do worse than consider this guy. Should continue to get lots of ball with Steele out and if he uses it well like he did on the weekend just gone he’ll score well. The play was probably last week, but he’s still a decent shout, especially playing North this week.

Players to consider trading out, or wait for them to bottom out and trade in:

PlayerPosBEPriceProjected ScoreProj $ Change
Travis BoakM190$529,600100-$40.2k
Max GawnR180$580,400106-$33k
Patrick CrippsM179$577,200118-$27.2k
Lachie NealeM169$650,900123-$20.3k
Hugh McCluggageM169$573,300101-$30.3k
Touk MillerM167$604,700118-$22k
Sean DarcyR164$591,900117-$20.9k
Isaac CummingD162$545,700109-$23.4k
Alex WitherdenD157$558,600157-$18.8k
Zach MerrettM154$531,800154-$28.7k
Andrew BrayshawM139$554,200105-$14.9k
Scott PendleburyD / M142$528,70097-$19.9k
Jack MacraeM145$620,500102-$19k
Nic MartinM /F116$379,30079-$16.3k
Nick DaicosD / M88$376,60072-$7.1k
Patrick McCartinD / F41$341,40073+$14.2k
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Top Trade out Targets:

  1. Nic Martin – Looks set to continue dropping in price unless he can pull a Cogs and go 100+ again. May have hit the rookie wall and happy selling as he has the round 12 bye.
  2. Hugh McCluggage – Looks like he could miss a week and with a further bye to come, you can swap him to a much more consistent and reliable scorer. You’ll end up well ahead looking at total points.
  3. Nick Daicos – Happy to hold him for the bye rounds ,however cash generation is an issue for some (like me). You may be forced to trade him and that’s okay, holding is also okay.
  4. Patrick McCartin – Still has money to make, however as above with Daicos, you may need to move him on a little early to get Bont or Baz in.
  5. Isaac Cumming / Alex Witherden – Open to trading these guys, especially if you have trades up your sleeve and at their byes. I think there’s better, and more consistent scorers in that price range.

Final Say

It’s a big weekend coming up for DPP changes. All eyes are on Bontempelli and Smith from the Dogs and I’m very confident both will obtain forward status. You need to have a plan to bring at least one of these guys in, either this week or next, especially with their break-evens currently being so low.

As usual, good luck!

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