Data analysis: Pain and gain points, Round 9

Data analyst Joe Kenny breaks down the key statistics to help give your side an edge on AFL SuperCoach rivals.

AFL

It was back to normal in round 8 with a score of 2,250+ generally enough to see you rise in the rankings.

We had some big scores from familiar names but also a few shockers to bring us down to earth (let’s hope it wasn’t someone you just used three trades to get!).

To understand which players are driving the rankings, let’s take another look at pain and gain points. Check out the round one article for a more detailed explainer on the pain/gain methodology here.

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From a trade point of view, we want to be targeting value priced premiums (looking at you Brayshaw, Dawson, Petracca, Wines, Lloyd) and moving on rookies that have peaked in price (Ward, Rachelle, O’Driscoll, Horne-Francis).

Just be sure you are keeping enough points on the field – if you add a premium but have to field a low scoring rookie rather than a high scoring rookie – you haven’t gained all that much.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on the byes and not overloading a particular week (round 12 in particular).

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The gainers:

  • If you didn’t start Brodie (or traded him last week after one lower score) then it might be time to pack up your team. The same could be said for Coniglio (70 points) who had a quieter week, but still produced well above the price you paid for him.
  • Cripps rewarded the roughly 14,000 coaches that traded him in with a massive score of 151. He is well and truly looking like a must have (also likely leading the Brownlow) and was good value last week at $526k and might still be value this week at $580k.
  • Jarrod Witts is ranked 7th in total season points (I had to double checked that) and has exceeded all expectations. Will he keep scoring like this all year? And do we cash out if his scores drop off – a question for another a day.
  • Charlie Curnow (149 points) – welcome to the party – is looking a shrewd pickup having gained more value than most rookies and being in just 10% of teams and 2% of the top 1000.
Full NamePrice Current RoundOwned Current RoundOwned Top 1000 %Points Current RoundPain Gain Current RoundPain / Gain Total
Will Brodie$466,60052%93%1155,758,76032,499,776
Patrick Cripps$580,70055%79%1515,585,22319,157,371
James Sicily$569,90040%72%1323,090,30813,444,226
Stephen Coniglio$452,00076%99%702,627,92745,175,101
Lachie Neale$663,00069%99%1232,431,53329,800,295
Jarrod Witts$595,60026%40%1322,239,23911,502,323
Charlie Curnow$418,00010%2%1491,649,6815,429,007
Matt Rowell$437,00036%36%881,445,69718,643,619
Jack Macrae$630,20053%86%1441,334,458-2,337,683
Clayton Oliver$661,40041%69%135931,653318,475

The painful:

  • Gawn had a down week (82 points) but is still the 5th highest scoring player for the year so not someone you would trade out. The more interesting decision for Gawn was whether to take an alternative vice-captain score (e.g. Neale at 123) or risk the captaincy on Gawn – a lesson not to get greedy. Nevertheless, a win for those rocking Preuss and Hayes in round 8.
  • Dunkley had a down week (78) but is in such a high proportion of teams that it wouldn’t have hurt too much if you had him. You are still well ahead on the year for starting him.
  • Tom Stewart (74), Steele (75) and Callum Mills (60) gave us examples of why we don’t chase points and bring players in at their peak or greater value. These scores probably won’t lower their price enough to bring in and may leave them still out of reach for now.
  • What do we do with Butters (52)? It seems a coin toss between scoring 50 or 100+ and he is not priced high enough to trade sideways. He is also in a huge percentage of top 1000 teams so could be a good one to bet against in an attempt to gain some ground. Most likely scenario for me is to trade him out at his bye with another underperformer (i.e. Whitfield).
Full NamePrice Current RoundOwned Current RoundOwned Top 1000 %Points Current RoundPain Gain Current RoundPain / Gain Total
Max Gawn$669,40049%60%82-3,048,952-1,477,273
Josh Dunkley$600,10063%95%78-2,512,2718,035,794
Jack Steele$637,10031%47%75-2,507,327-5,000,836
Zak Butters$421,40044%77%52-2,073,0702,962,362
Tom Stewart$609,20022%22%74-1,192,9521,135,779
Isaac Heeney$511,60047%57%75-808,1949,449,358
Callum Mills$686,4007%10%60-684,221-217,950
Tom Mitchell$526,7005%3%40-648,051-2,013,482

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