Final say: Round 5, trade plans + tactics

With the clock running down until the beginning of Round 5, we have the final say on AFL SuperCoach trade plans.


It was a tough week for most coaches, and an advantageous week for some.

It started with a Friday night disaster for owners of Bowey (47) and Butters (57), but Max Gawn reminded everyone of why you should never trade your gun premos with a MASSIVE 160.

Luke Jackson and Travis Boak also continued in their career best Supercoach form, scoring 126 and 117 respectively.

Jack Macrae bounced back from his sub-par 92 to reward those (like me) who chucked the VC on him, by scoring a nice little 158.

The score of the week was probably owned by Jarrod Witts, who fully capitalised on a Pittonet-less Carlton side and absolutely dominated with a 154.

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Will Brodie also rewarded his large number of owners with a 135, which is the biggest score of his Supercoach career!

In terms of rookies, Josh Rachele proved to the whole competition that he can score above 100+ with ease, restarting his cash cycle in the process.

However, for as much gloom as there was over the round, there was also a fair bit of doom.

Sean Darcy, albeit owned by just 2.4%, again failed to reach the lofty heights of his 2021 season. The positive out of this is that for non-owners, his breakeven is going to be INCREDIBLY high, and he looms as a potential cheap mid-season upgrade if you didn’t start with Grundy and Gawn.

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Clayton Oliver, for whatever reason, scored just 68 against the very poor Power. His breakeven is now 162, and could be a handy fallen-premo upgrade in a couple weeks (particularly if you want to get rid of Rowell).

The story of the round involves Patrick Cripps who was subbed out at quarter time due to a hamstring strain.

It was an unfortunate sight for the 61.4% who own him, and even more unfortunate sight for the 25% who traded him in over the last two weeks.

He was on track for another massive score, but sadly finished up on just 38. I won’t talk too much about it now, we’ll get to the nitty gritty later on.

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This week I scored 2,160 which moved me down 5,000 spots to 21,636th.

It wasn’t a good week for me in all honesty. Admittedly, 2,160 is still a very respectable score, but it leaves me with a lot to think about.

I didn’t make any trades, and went into Round 4 with the same team I had in Round 5. Unfortunately, that meant I still had Bowey, and Bowey did not score well.

The other major areas that need some focus on include the likes of McCartin, Hinge, Rowell, and Butters. However, by far and away the most important thing I (and lots of others) need to think about is what to do with Patty Cripps.

As mentioned above, Cripps was subbed out at quarter time with a suspected hamstring strain. The news early on wasn’t good, and straight away the first instinct I had was to trade.

Yesterday though, Riley Beveridge tweeted that Cripps was set to miss this week’s game against Port Adelaide (which I think we all assumed), but that Carlton were confident scans had cleared any significant damage to his hammy. TODAY however, reports have emerged that he still hasn’t been ruled out for this week. WTF?!

So, the question is this: trade or hold?

The simple answer is without a doubt to hold. Cripps is an absolute superstar this season, and should be in your teams come the end of the season.

The trouble is though, there is still so much uncertainty surrounding his injury and the severity of it, making it very hard for us owners to get a gage on what to do.

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The general rule of thumb I have is that: a). If it’s any more than two weeks, you should trade / and b). If you don’t have suitable bench cover to replace him (Ward, Hough, Mead etc. are probably not good enough) (Rachele, O’Driscoll, even Dylan Stephens are probably good enough) then you could consider trading Cripps.

The general vibe is that he may just miss this week, and I’m very comfortable with fielding Rachele after his 106 on the weekend.

Regardless of whether Cripps misses three weeks or just the one, I will be making at least two trades this week.

Firstly, Josh Ward’s cash making days are almost over, so it’s as good a time as any to pounce on West Coast rookie, Hugh Dixon. With the news that Nic Nat won’t be back until mid-season, Dixon has firmly cemented himself as the Eagles’ #1 ruck, and his scoring is about to take a massive leap forward.

Brodie will make his way up to M6 for the time being while Cripps is out, meaning that Dixon will comfortably sit at F6.

The other news out of the weekend was the injuries both sustained to Mitch Hinge and Patty McCartin. By all accounts, there are no serious dramas associated with either one of them, but I’m hearing news that McCartin may miss this week.

If that’s the case, he’ll make way for the must-have Nathan O’Driscoll, who has a breakeven of just -54 and is expected to rise by $49.7k off the back of his huge 106 the week before.

Ward -> Dixon

McCartin -> O’Driscoll

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Generally, PODs are anyone who is owned by less than 10% of the competition, and Super PODs are anyone owned by less than 2%.

Here’s my top three for each (based on who I think is the best to take a punt on).

Top-3 PODs

  1. Andrew Brayshaw ($622,200, 126.8, 9.8%) – Catapulting his way into #1 spot is Andy Brayshaw. While he hasn’t set the world alight in his past two matches (due to being tagged), he comes up against a very undermanned Essendon midfield who DO NOT TAG!! If you were looking for a reason to get Brayshaw in, this is that reason. He will go 150+ this week.
  • Travis Boak ($639,200, 138.8, 3.2%) – Continuing in career-best Supercoach form, Travis scored a 117 on the weekend with a whopping 35 touches! While I’m wary of his longevity, you may as well jump on now and enjoy the high scores for as long as you can.
  • Sam Docherty ($569,100, 125.3, 9.2%) – Joining the boys at the top of the list is Sam Docherty. The Doc is putting up some unbelievable scores, and is firmly cementing himself as the #1 defender in the game. If you’re looking to upgrade Hinge or McCartin, and you have the cash, definitely lock in Sam Docherty. Expect his ownership to rise in the coming weeks…
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Top-3 Super PODs

  1. Ben Keays ($598,500, 125, 1.5%) – Yep… Still at the top of the list is Ben Keays. Week in, week out, he just keeps getting it done, and put up another solid score of 110 last round. He is the epitome of consistency.
  • Rory Laird ($632,200, 118, 0.2%) – Joining his Crom teammate is Rory Laird. Understandably, there were doubts about Laird coming into the season due to the broken hand he sustained in pre-season. However, that doubt has to be put aside after his 143 on the weekend. Let’s not forget that he played every single game last year, and averaged 116. If you’re looking for an insane POD who scores well and consistently, while also being incredible durable, look no further than Rory Laird.
  • Callum Mills ($586,100, 107.8, 1%) – Moving into the midfield last year, Mills had a career best year, averaging 112 across the 18 games he played; never dropping below 80 in the process. In his four games this year, he’s already put-up scores of 147 and 130 in incredibly limited game-time due to the wariness of his Achilles. Now that he is fully warmed up, we should see some absolutely monster scores from Mills, and this may be the cheapest we ever see him this year.
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Here’s my top three players that you shouldn’t be buying JUST yet, but should definitely have an eye on for the weeks to come:

  1. Brayden Preuss ($204,700, 105.5, 18.1%) – As said by Eddie on the pod this week, Preuss did the most Preuss thing possible and threw an elbow at David Mundy, getting himself suspended AGAIN. I feel bad for the people that already traded him in off the back of his first game, but I cannot wait until he’s in my team next week. A breakeven of -91 means that he is going to absolutely skyrocket after he plays his next game. You really don’t want to miss out on that.
  • Scott Pendlebury ($522,500, 106.5, 1.4%) – With DPP’s coming out next week, the main person on my radar is the silky veteran, Scott Pendlebury. A move to half-back this year will most likely see him get DEF status, and with scores like 105, 124, and 110 in his last three games, he could become an extremely good pick.
  • Touk Miller ($627,300, 114.5, 25.5%) – Remarkably, Touk is predicted to drop under $600k in just two weeks due to incredibly high breakeven of 188. I know how tempting it is to get him in ASAP, but just wait a couple more weeks because that will be the cheapest we see him this season.
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Last week, I got my captains list pretty spot on with Macrae at #1. This week I love the VC option of Lachie Neale on the Thursday night, and also Macrae on Friday night.

On Saturday, Jack Steele and Touk Miller should both find plenty of the footy in their matchup against each other.

Max Gawn should have a field day against the Giants after his 160 last week, and Andy Brayshaw will post a massive score this week against the depleted Essendon midfield.

Top-3 Vice Captains

  1. Lachie Neale
  2. Jack Macrae
  3. Tim English

Top-3 Captains

  1. Max Gawn
  2. Andy Brayshaw
  3. Touk Miller

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18+ *Gamble Responsibly*

Lock Bet:

  • Collingwood +30.5 @1.90
  • Bulldogs WIN @1.17
  • Saints WIN @1.34
  • Demons WIN @1.15

Multi @3.34

Disposals Multi:

  • Lachie Neale 30 or more Disposals @1.50
  • Touk Miller 30 or more Disposals @1.67
  • Andrew Brayshaw 30 or more Disposals @1.67

Multi @4.18

MEGA Multi:

  • West Coast 1-24 @3.95
  • St. Kilda 1-39 @2.10
  • Richmond 1-39 @2.30
  • Carlton 1-39 @2.25

Multi @43.47

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