Data analysis: Pain and gain points, Round 4

Another week gone and another round of frustration for many and joy for some – we can’t all be ranked in the top 1,000!



To help understand this, it’s time for another look at pain and gain points – the metric that looks at how the most highly owned players are performing.



Check out the round one article for a more detailed explainer on the methodology <a href="http://13.210.220.211/2022/03/23/data-analysis-rd-2-breaking-down-the-key-stats/">here</a>.



If your ranking is not where you want it to be – do not fret. There is only about 200 points between the 1,000th ranked player and the 10,000th (7,067 vs 6,874). With some smart trading and a little luck – you could be back up the top in no time.



<a id='yjUxex_cRXtHu5CLkgGZpw' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/1239317359' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'yjUxex_cRXtHu5CLkgGZpw',sig:'0Uwb4qn2HRHu_VkBhBQepJ8BcSTfuz7uIGDMklcb_6E=',w:'594px',h:'434px',items:'1239317359',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



The conventional wisdom for this week would be to hold your team as is and only make a trade for injuries, significant underperformance or a “can’t miss” rookie that has played two games (e.g. Nic Martin).



Any corrective trades should have been made last week, with there being much less to gain now that prices have started to move.



The gainers (Top 10 overall or Top 10 last week):



<ul><li>These are generally the players driving the top ranked teams. If you back their form to continue – you should have traded them in last week. Otherwise, these are the players you are betting against.</li><li>A big score from Coniglio (149) puts him atop the list of gainers. Don’t get too carried away though as three quarters of the comp have him (and most of the top 10,000). You are more keeping up rather than getting ahead by having him.</li><li>The players that have done well in the early rounds, generally continued to so in round three. Rowell (103), Cripps (119) and Hewett (111) outperformed their price-equivalent scores and rewarded the thousands of coaches that traded them in.</li><li>English, Bowey and Gresham have relatively low ownership compared to the rest of the list (like me, you’re probably asking yourself why you didn’t start them). They could be nice point of difference players with positive value to help you gain on the competition – assuming of course their form continues.</li></ul>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>First Name</td><td>Own R2</td><td>Own R3</td><td>Score R3</td><td>&nbsp;Price</td><td>Exp. Score</td><td>Pain/Gain Pts R3</td><td>Pain/Gain Pts YEAR</td></tr><tr><td>S. &nbsp;Coniglio</td><td>75%</td><td>75%</td><td>149</td><td>&nbsp;$261k</td><td>48</td><td>11,632,218</td><td>21,213,522</td></tr><tr><td>Matt Rowell</td><td>60%</td><td>61%</td><td>103</td><td>&nbsp;$343k</td><td>63</td><td>3,728,512</td><td>11,847,301</td></tr><tr><td>Patrick Cripps</td><td>37%</td><td>59%</td><td>119</td><td>&nbsp;$455k</td><td>84</td><td>3,199,459</td><td>10,239,729</td></tr><tr><td>George Hewett</td><td>39%</td><td>55%</td><td>111</td><td>&nbsp;$399k</td><td>73</td><td>3,166,339</td><td>8,580,682</td></tr><tr><td>Will Brodie</td><td>39%</td><td>41%</td><td>90</td><td>&nbsp;$224k</td><td>41</td><td>3,090,021</td><td>8,727,252</td></tr><tr><td>Josh Dunkley</td><td>59%</td><td>59%</td><td>129</td><td>&nbsp;$558k</td><td>103</td><td>2,377,872</td><td>3,187,879</td></tr><tr><td>Jake Bowey</td><td>7%</td><td>23%</td><td>89</td><td>$265k</td><td>&nbsp;49</td><td>1,412,358</td><td>2,608,035</td></tr><tr><td>Timothy English</td><td>11%</td><td>14%</td><td>152</td><td>&nbsp;$483k</td><td>89</td><td>1,388,565</td><td>2,089,656</td></tr><tr><td>James Sicily</td><td>34%</td><td>33%</td><td>105</td><td>&nbsp;$448k</td><td>82</td><td>1,153,170</td><td>2,349,129</td></tr><tr><td>Jade Gresham</td><td>17%</td><td>16%</td><td>102</td><td>&nbsp;$299k</td><td>55</td><td>1,133,016</td><td>2,287,647</td></tr><tr><td>Clayton Oliver</td><td>32%</td><td>31%</td><td>146</td><td>&nbsp;$672k</td><td>124</td><td>1,055,796</td><td>362,799</td></tr><tr><td>Jayden Short</td><td>31%</td><td>33%</td><td>110</td><td>&nbsp;$535k</td><td>98</td><td>596,136</td><td>2,869,319</td></tr><tr><td>Lachie Neale</td><td>54%</td><td>64%</td><td>105</td><td>&nbsp;$543k</td><td>100</td><td>503,927</td><td>11,943,693</td></tr><tr><td>Isaac Heeney</td><td>24%</td><td>39%</td><td>88</td><td>&nbsp;$455k</td><td>84</td><td>269,320</td><td>4,049,760</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The painful (Bottom 10 overall or bottom 10 last week):



<ul><li>And now we come to the players you wouldn’t have wanted in your side (and when you start asking why are so many of these guys in my team?).</li><li>We can see just how hard it is for the top midfielders to meet their expected scores. Macrae, Steele and T. Miller all feature on this list and are net negative value from just one poor round (they should be okay in the long run though …. right?).</li></ul>



Bontempelli, T. Mitchell, Parish and Lyons have also underperformed versus what you paid for them. Picking a premium midfielder might not be as easy as we first thought?



<ul><li>There is trouble in ruck land with both Gawn and Grundy underperforming and limited alternatives. It might not be too late to trade one of them to English, but conventional wisdom would say hold and hope if you still have them.</li><li>Crisp (85 points) dealt out some pain points in the backline in round three as was not alone with Ryan (74), Rich (81) and Daniel (71) all underperforming. Picking Sicily and/or Hewett over this group would have gone a long way to helping your ranking and cash balance.</li></ul>



With high ownership (36%), Crisp is the one you would be betting against as a non-owner and would be a mighty tempting trade out option this week if you do have him.



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>First Name</td><td>Own R2</td><td>Own R3</td><td>Score R3</td><td>&nbsp;Price</td><td>Exp. Score</td><td>Pain/Gain Pts R3</td><td>Pain/Gain Pts YEAR</td></tr><tr><td>Jackson Macrae</td><td>49%</td><td>49%</td><td>92</td><td>&nbsp;$700k</td><td>129</td><td>-2,731,061</td><td>-1,403,156</td></tr><tr><td>Touk Miller</td><td>26%</td><td>26%</td><td>76</td><td>&nbsp;$678k</td><td>125</td><td>-1,944,635</td><td>-855,096</td></tr><tr><td>Zak Butters</td><td>48%</td><td>51%</td><td>58</td><td>&nbsp;$444k</td><td>82</td><td>-1,855,131</td><td>4,516,386</td></tr><tr><td>Brodie Grundy</td><td>49%</td><td>49%</td><td>96</td><td>&nbsp;$627k</td><td>115</td><td>-1,459,035</td><td>-1,873,113</td></tr><tr><td>Jack Crisp</td><td>36%</td><td>36%</td><td>85</td><td>&nbsp;$571k</td><td>105</td><td>-1,092,156</td><td>-2,416,450</td></tr><tr><td>Sam Draper</td><td>8%</td><td>8%</td><td>21</td><td>&nbsp;$396k</td><td>73</td><td>-628,372</td><td>-110,405</td></tr><tr><td>Rowan Marshall</td><td>9%</td><td>8%</td><td>58</td><td>&nbsp;$537k</td><td>99</td><td>-523,883</td><td>-622,749</td></tr><tr><td>Christian Petracca</td><td>17%</td><td>19%</td><td>98</td><td>&nbsp;$606k</td><td>111</td><td>-397,100</td><td>973,840</td></tr><tr><td>Daniel Rich</td><td>9%</td><td>9%</td><td>81</td><td>&nbsp;$583k</td><td>107</td><td>-372,249</td><td>-712,424</td></tr><tr><td>Luke Ryan</td><td>7%</td><td>8%</td><td>74</td><td>&nbsp;$540k</td><td>99</td><td>-310,487</td><td>-48,945</td></tr><tr><td>Caleb Daniel</td><td>8%</td><td>8%</td><td>71</td><td>&nbsp;$511k</td><td>94</td><td>-266,944</td><td>-513,324</td></tr><tr><td>Max Gawn</td><td>53%</td><td>42%</td><td>117</td><td>&nbsp;$657k</td><td>121</td><td>-243,389</td><td>-5,561,462</td></tr><tr><td>Tom Mitchell</td><td>7%</td><td>5%</td><td>86</td><td>&nbsp;$638k</td><td>117</td><td>-239,878</td><td>-1,098,041</td></tr><tr><td>Jack Steele</td><td>33%</td><td>27%</td><td>121</td><td>&nbsp;$686k</td><td>126</td><td>-208,862</td><td>-3,087,172</td></tr><tr><td>Marcus Bontempelli</td><td>12%</td><td>11%</td><td>108</td><td>&nbsp;$652k</td><td>120</td><td>-198,695</td><td>-756,255</td></tr><tr><td>Lachie Whitfield</td><td>51%</td><td>31%</td><td>96</td><td>&nbsp;$503k</td><td>92</td><td>170,258</td><td>-3,157,911</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



FOLLOW EXCLUSIVE SC PLAYBOOK MARKETS! The crew at Topsport are offering markets picked out by our team of experts, with added value on top every single round. Check them out, and <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.topsport.com.au/?Referrer=SC%20Playbook" target="_blank">use the code ‘SCPLAYBOOK’ when signing up</a>.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="575" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-AFL-2048x1149-V2--1024x575.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-1953956" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-AFL-2048x1149-V2--1024x575.jpg 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-AFL-2048x1149-V2--300x168.jpg 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-AFL-2048x1149-V2--768x431.jpg 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-AFL-2048x1149-V2--1536x862.jpg 1536w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-AFL-2048x1149-V2--640x359.jpg 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-AFL-2048x1149-V2--1200x673.jpg 1200w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-AFL-2048x1149-V2--800x450.jpg 800w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TopSport-SC-Playbook-AFL-2048x1149-V2-.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>

Data analysis: Pain and gain points, Round 4

Discussion (0)