Money movers: Players to trade/target to up cap value, Rd 4

2021 AFL SuperCoach runner-up Steve Nikolovski assesses all the key players set to make big cash, and those set to plummet in value.


Round 3 is done and dusted and it brought some really exciting footy. 

It was a massive breakeven round last week and we now have plenty of green price changes in our teams, headlined by Hayes +$85.2k, Coniglio +$77.2K and Xerri +$69.8k. 

Luckily, we still have some relevant players on the bubble this week and others with still very low breakevens. 

So, let’s dive in and see if we should be making any moves this week based off breakevens alone.

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Players to consider trading IN:

PlayerBEPriceProjected ScoreProj $ Change
Nic Martin*-124$102,40093+$96.8k
Stephen Coniglio-48$338,500102+$66.6k
Lachlan Gollant*-48$123,90046+41.7k
Jake Bowey-46$328,30084+$57.7k
Hugh Dixon*-42$102,40052+42k
Willie Rioli*-40$225,30087+$56.4k
Thomson Dow-31$198,90058+$38k
Sam Skinner*-20$123,90040+$26.6
Brady Hough-18$117,30044+$27.4k
Patrick Cripps26$518,800136+48.9k

*Indicates player is on the bubble and has had no price movement to date

Top Trade in Targets:

  1. Nic Martin – By far and away the clear pick for this week.  Playing up the ground and not as a small forward which is what we love to see.  He’s a guy we can safely play on field and a MUST trade in this week, unless you already own obviously.
  2. Stephen Coniglio – If you avoided starting him for some reason, now is the last chance to correct that mistake.  You’re still getting a top 6 premium forward for a touch over $300k, and his 149 score will be in his scoring cycle for two more weeks.
  3. Lachlan Gollant – If you have a free forward spot, i.e., Baldwin, you could do a lot worse than bring this guy in.  He looked great on the weekend and will probably stay in the side long term.
  4. Sam Skinner – Rolled his ankle and subbed last week but has been passed fit.  Job security remains an issue but if he has a good game this week, he could hold his spot for a few more weeks and make money.
  5. Patrick Cripps – Similar to Coniglio above.  The play was last week, but you probably have one last chance to get a premium player who will finish top 8 Mid for a discounted price.
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Players to consider trading OUT:

PlayerBEPriceProjected ScoreProj $ Change
Luke Parker192$576,300122-$31.2k
Nic Naitanui*190$627,400108-$36.3k
Tom Hawkins180$491,600100-$35.7k
Patrick Dangerfield177$554,400112-$29.1k
Tom Mitchell176$580,30089-$38.6k
Rowan Marshall175$506,10089-$38.2k
Touk Miller173$656,300132-$18.1k
Jack Macrae168$678,800119-$21.8k
Todd Goldstein166$502,90088-$34.6k

Top Trade out Targets:

  1. Tom Mitchell – If you’ve started him, your rank is most likely pretty ordinary.  Unfortunately, he’s just not the fantasy pig he once was.  Touted as a possibility for FWD status come round 6 which shows you his role just isn’t there now.  Move him on while you can to someone in form ala Cripps/Oliver.
  2. Rowan Marshall – The three talls in the same team is just no good for this guy.  He needs to be the standalone ruck for him to be a premium player.  Now is your chance to grab English or even Preuss before he really plummets in value.
  3. Todd Goldstein – You really shouldn’t have him but if you do, as above, move him on to English or Preuss.  He’s playing full forward, not ruck.
  4. Nic Naitanui – I’d be more inclined to keep him after his 119 on the weekend, but people moved Gawn to English or Preuss last week with some success.  You can do that with this guy but only do so if it also helps you bring in a Cripps etc. as well.

Final Say

PLEASE don’t trade out your premiums because they’ve had one poor game. 

I’m talking the likes of Touk Miller and Jackson Macrae. 

They will 99% turn it around this week.  There’s not much you should be doing coming into round 4 other than watching your rookies mature in price, unless you have an injury to deal with. 

I’m bringing in Nic Martin for Kaine Baldwin, and that’s it.

Good luck!

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