Data analysis: Pain and gain points, Round 3

Data analyst Joe Kenny breaks down the key statistics to help give your side an edge on AFL SuperCoach rivals.


It is time for another edition of pain points and gain points – the metric that looks at the most highly owned players and explains why you are charging up or tumbling down the rankings.

We are essentially taking each player’s over and under performance and multiplying this by the ownership rate.

Check out last week’s article for a more detailed explainer on the methodology here.

The difference for this week is that we will use the week two ownership numbers by each player’s week two score (the pain and gain points will reflect the whole season) – and still no rookies.

With prices set to move from next week, it’s time to hit that trade boost button and start burning trades. These are some of the most critical decisions you will make all year.

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The gainers:

  • Not owning these guys may be the reason your ranking is not where you want it to be. You probably want to own at least five or six of these guys as we move into round three (unless all your PODs are working – but who are we kidding there!).
  • A big score from Neale (198) puts him atop this list and congrats if you had him as captain. He should already be in your team, but get him in if you don’t have him.
  • The Carlton midfielders (Cripps and Hewett) scored well again and will be popular trade targets this week – can they keep up the scoring though?
  • About 14,000 coaches traded in Rowell this week and would have been disappointed with a score only slightly above his price point (the majority of gain points are from round one). A good lesson to not chase points, but I would still back him to work out in the long run.
  • Caldwell is an interesting option here as he is performing well above his price point (+40 points) with relatively low ownership (15%).
NameOwn R1Score R1Own R2Score R2 PriceExp. ScorePain/Gain Pts
Lachie Neale54%14054%198 $ 543,20010011,439,766
S. Coniglio75%8075%99 $ 261,300489,581,305
Matt Rowell51%15760%71 $ 342,900638,118,788
Patrick Cripps35%13237%162 $ 454,800847,040,270
Zak Butters47%11448%136 $ 443,600826,371,517
Will Brodie40%7639%101 $ 224,300415,637,231
George Hewett32%13139%117 $ 399,000735,414,343
Isaac Heeney20%14124%140 $ 454,500843,780,440
Jayden Short31%10931%136 $ 535,200982,273,183
Jye Caldwell15%9115%90 $ 266,700491,902,533

The painful:

  • Gawn, Whitfield and to a lesser extent Steele have all underperformed and loom as the big trade out decisions. Having all three of these players in your team (like I do …) has cost you about 80 points per week. The good thing is that they are in a lot of other teams so you are not alone. Hanging on to them now or bailing out could make or break your season – good luck to you.
  • Mitchell owners wouldn’t be happy after two weeks of scoring in the 80s. This probably won’t continue, but he might not be worth the $638k you paid for him either. Think about a trade if you don’t have bigger issues in your side.
  • The remainder may have redeemed themselves with scores above 100 and should be safe in your team for now. Every player will have down weeks, they just happened to have theirs in round one and should remain at their higher round two scores (we hope anyway!).
NameOwn R1Score R1Own R2Score R2 PriceExp. ScorePain/Gain Pts
Max Gawn60%9253%88 $ 657,400121-5,318,073
Lachie Whitfield53%7351%70 $ 502,60092-3,328,169
Jack Steele36%8733%111 $ 685,800126-2,878,310
Jack Crisp40%6936%121 $ 571,000105-1,324,294
Jordan Ridley22%6821%102 $ 537,10099-951,969
Tom Mitchell8%807%82 $ 638,100117-858,163
Clayton Oliver32%11232%121 $ 672,000124-692,997
M. Bontempelli13%10512%105 $ 651,700120-557,559
Brodie Grundy49%12449%101 $ 627,100115-414,078
N. Naitanui5%634%na $ 627,400115-385,149

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