Joe Kenny
Data analyst, SuperCoach gun
Data analyst and SuperCoach weapon Joseph Kenny looks at the key stats to help you build your Round 1 team.
AFL Key Analysis Pre SeasonCan’t decide which of the bargain players to select in your side? Let the data guide you.
Finding value in your selections is a key part of building any successful SuperCoach side.
This allows you (in theory) to field players early in the year that score well and increase in price until you transition your team to full premium.
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Embed from Getty ImagesClassic examples from 2021 were Jack Ziebell (average of 107 at a starting price $258k) or Jarman Impey (average of 91 at a starting price of $213k).
However, this can go wrong if a player doesn’t score well, doesn’t gain in price, isn’t selected or gets injured (like how I picked Jordan Clark last year…).
This is your classic case of risk/reward with high upside if you get these selections right. With the five extra trades this year, there is a greater margin for error if these choices don’t work out.
Embed from Getty ImagesIf we assess the expected scoring of some of our under-priced players against their actual starting price, we can assess each player by how much extra value they are potentially offering.
This can help us decide between the many under-priced players on offer this year. The other important part of course being that the player actually plays each week!
For expected score, we can come up with a number in our head, use a past average, or if you have too much time on your hands like me – build a model.
We can convert this expected score into a dollar value by multiplying it by the SuperCoach magic number – about 5440.
For example, Steven Coniglio is priced at $261k and is currently in 64% of teams. This starting price equates to a score of about 48 points per round (see what I did there – 261,000 divided by 5440).
Let’s say we expect a score of 82 points per round from Coniglio. This would equate to a potential value of around $443k and a net value of $182k. Sign me up!
Embed from Getty ImagesLet’s look at some other examples:
Player | Team | position | Price | Breakeven | Expected Score | Net Value |
J. Lyons | BRL | MID | $640K | 118 | 110 | -$47K |
M. Crouch | ADE | MID | $482K | 89 | 102 | $63K |
J. Gresham | STK | MID FWD | $299K | 55 | 81 | $137K |
C. Rayner | BRL | FWD | $279K | 51 | 61 | $49K |
S. Coniglio | GWS | MID FWD | $261K | 48 | 82 | $180K |
J. Horne-Francis | NTH | MID | $207K | 38 | 60 | $119K |
This is just one way to evaluate players and should be considered with a range of factors (injury risk, selection risk, role, having a cool name, you get a good vibe etc).
This can also be a helpful way of looking at prices throughout the year when they start to move and it comes to trading in players. Hopefully this helps one or two out there and opens up a new way of looking at players.
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