Tim Williams
SC Playbook founder, 2nd NRL 2020, 43rd BBL 21/22'
Final Word: Round 4 skippers, tactics, weather
We have the final say on the major Round 4 plays, including weather reports, breakevens, super PODs, captains and more.
Final Word
December 19, 2021
- STAT BREAKDOWN: Key numbers shaping Round 4
- SEEING DOUBLE: SC prospects with two cracks, Scorchers
Following a rare breather between SuperCoach rounds, we’re back in action on Sunday night for Round 4.
It’ll see the Perth Scorchers on the double game week and the Melbourne Stars on the bye.
With injuries to key players such as Tom Curran and Joel Paris, squads will be looking extremely thin.
Many coaches will struggle to field a full team, while auto-emergency opportunities will be very limited.
The Cooma Stallions fired in Round 3 to move into 393rd overall, so hopefully that continues.
Let’s take a look at the Round 4 action.
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Embed from Getty ImagesWEATHER WATCH
All weather is courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology as of Sunday, 1PM. All times are in AEDT. Forecasts are subject to change.
SUNDAY
7:40PM: Heat v Thunder, The Gabba, Brisbane
Forecast: Partly cloudy, 30 degrees, 5% chance of rain.
Verdict: All clear
MONDAY
7:15PM: Scorchers v Hurricanes, Blundstone Arena, Hobart
Forecast: Shower or two, becoming windy, 60% chance of 0-2mm of rain.
Verdict: Very minor amount of rain predicted, due in the morning/lunch period, should be fairly safe.
TUESDAY
7:15PM: Sixers v Strikers, SCG, Sydney
Forecast: Partly cloudy, 29 degrees, 20% chance of any rain.
Verdict: Looking fairly clear at this stage.
WEDNESDAY
7:15PM: Renegades v Scorchers, Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Forecast: Partly cloudy, 21 degrees, 20% chance of any rain.
Verdict: Looking fairly clear at this stage.
Embed from Getty ImagesLOOKING AHEAD
The Scorchers are on the double, with the Stars on the bye.
Unlike most sides, the Scorchers don’t follow their double with a bye.
There are no teams on the bye next round, and the next team on a bye is the Hurricanes but not until Round 8, so we have a pretty clear run for a while.
There are no teams on the double either next round, however Round 6 will see the Heat and Hurricanes both with two games.
On that note, it may be worth trying to keep any of their players in your squad in preparation for that round.
SUPER PODS
Each week one of our contributors will provide a full analysis on the point of difference (POD) players to consider.
In the Final Word, we’ll look at the super POD options, the players at under 5% ownership (or around about) that could send you soaring (or falling) up the overall ranks.
They come with big risk, but the reward is immense if it comes off.
Last week, Qais Ahmad went well with 83 points in the double game week, while Jason Behrendorff fired with 63 points for anyone who decided to go early on him.
Embed from Getty ImagesLiam Guthrie – 6% ownership
This one is a monitor ahead of Round 4 due to pending team selections.
With Mark Steketee and Mitch Swepson coming back into the Heat line-up, Guthrie’s position will be under fire.
However, he’s been outstanding this season and looms as a perfect SuperCoach buy provided he holds his spot.
With a breakeven of -37 he’s set to make mass amounts of money, he’s a cheapie at just $76k, and the Heat have the double in a few rounds time, so he looks a great pick up that many will avoid due to the Scorchers being on the double.
By the time Round 5 opens up he’ll have made a stack of money and the ship may well have sailed.
Again, monitor final team lists tonight to make sures he’s named.
Update: Not named in final XI, avoid
Embed from Getty ImagesBen McDermott – 6.8% ownership
Considering he only just played his first game of the season, I’m surprised McDermott is owned by almost 7%.
However, I’d imagine a lot of those are sleeper teams who are non-active players, meaning his actual ownership would be far less.
He’s a genuine gun, and showed last year his class, averaging 52.1 SuperCoach points, including three big tonnes.
I’ll admit the fact he’s not keeping and batting at four isn’t ideal when paying $168k for a player not on a double game week, but the upside is evident.
He fired in his first game this season on return from injury with 41 off 29 balls, returning 76 SC points.
With the Canes on the double in a few weeks it could pay off big time to go early on him.
Embed from Getty ImagesBREAKEVENS
Each week we’ll list the top 10 players with both the highest and lowest breakevens, plus a few additional players worth noting, to help track your cash movement.
LOWEST BREAKEVEN (Money-makers)
Glenn Maxwell (-48)
Liam Guthrie (-37)
Matt Short (-32)
James Bazley (-21)
Brody Couch (-19)
Sam Heazlett (-18)
Thomas Kelly (-17)
Josh Philippe (-15)
Tanveer Sangha (-7)
Joel Paris (-7)
Xavier Bartlett (-6)
HIGHEST BREAKEVEN (Likely money fallers)
Daniel Sams (144)
Tom Curran (139)
Moises Henriques (137)
Colin Munro (137)
Nathan Coulter-Nile (126)
Mujeeb Ur Rahman (117)
Andrew Tye (113)
Steve O’Keefe (112)
Matt Kelly (112)
Jack Wildermuth (91)
Peter Siddle (89)
Josh Inglis (89)
Marcus Stoinis (89)
Chris Lynn (87)
Jason Behrendorff (86)
Embed from Getty ImagesSKIPPERS
It’s an open week for captaincy option with the Scorchers throwing up plenty of quality players with few absolute standouts.
The Scorchers don’t play until game two, so we can vice-captain someone from the Heat v Thunder game on Sunday night.
They’d probably need to go 100+ to consider looping, so Daniel Sams is the obvious option there.
Alex Hales owners will be tempted to whack the VC on the opener.
Captaincy wise, I think I’d avoid the likes of AJ Tye and Jason Behrendorff as I think they’re a serious resting risk with Matt Kelly waiting in the wings.
Tymal Mills looks a great option, and having played just the one game he’ll hopefully be good for the double, although there is still some minimal risk of a resting, especially coming off an injury at the T20 World Cup.
Embed from Getty ImagesMitch Marsh will likely be the most captained player and it’s hard to argue following a tonne in his first game of the season, coming off his World Cup final heroics.
As such, I’m tempted to anti-POD him as a pick, however I don’t knock anyone opting for him.
If he does fail with the bat in two digs, and he doesn’t bowl which seems likely, there’s a big opportunity to go large elsewhere.
Colin Munro is in the same boat being a sole batsmen, but he has the huge upside too.
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The Hobart deck is farily batsmen friendly, while Marvel tends to favours the bowlers.
I like Mills as he’s one of the best death bowlers in the world and he showed in his opening game that he doesn’t need time to settle into conditions Down Under.
A great read as per usual, Tim. The BBL content is of the highest quality, and there isn’t a collection of great contributors like this under the one banner.
Thanks mate, really appreciate the kind feedback. Good luck this week!
Hi there,
I have Mitch Marsh (C) for Round 4.
Who makes the Best VC for Round 4..I currently have Tye as my VC for Round 4 as it’s a Double Game Round.
If anyone has any Suggestions that would be great.
Hey John,
If you have any decent Thunder or Heat players they make the most sense this week.
Daniel Sams looks the obvious option if you own. If your vice in the game tonight goes large you can loop.
Cheers, Tim.