Strategy Playbook: Predicting top 44 run home scorers

Fish takes a deep dive into the projected output of the top 44 SuperCoach players for the run home, based on 'positional scoring v team' analysis.

Strategy Playbook

Position vs Team analysis – the Run Home

The injury crisis put an abrupt end to most of our start/sit decisions. So, I’ve broadened this analysis to look at the best players for the run home, based on position vs team analysis.

If you’ve still got trades left, well done! This table will help you identify the key targets. If you’re looking to make up ground in your groups or the overall race, be sure to also check out Quantium’s[i] stat analysis, which will help you identify the best ‘point-of-difference’ players.

Also be sure to keep an eye on ‘3 Wise Draftmen’[ii] on Twitter, who look at point scoring vs position for each side of the field / player position. It’s a fantastic resource!

A massive thanks again also to[iii], whose incredible stats I’ve utilised for the below analysis.

FINALS PRICE DROP!!! Sign up to SC Playbook for just $10 for extra premium articles every round, including access to our subscriber special question and answer podcast.

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I’ll let the stats speak for themselves. I’ve calculated my estimates based on the formula below.

ESTIMATED POINTS CALCULATION = (Player Points Per Minute (PPM) x Player’s Est. Minutes) + (Opponent PPM x Player’s Est. Minutes)

I’ve exercised a bit of discretion to determine estimated minutes, by taking into consideration player’s average minutes this season, as well as the potential for ‘early showers’ in the last few rounds.

Note that the estimated points are relatively conservative for the highest ranked players, who generally have much higher scoring potential than the rest of the competition.

Hope you all enjoy the last few rounds of the regular season!

*If viewing on mobile, scroll across for full table.

RankingNameTeamPosnEst. MinsAvgScorePPMTotal Est Pts
1Trbojevic, TomMNLFLB751351.77296
2Cleary, NathanPTHHFB751121.43241
3Ponga, KalynNEWFLB80720.97238
4Papenhuyzen, RyanMELFLB70731.35224
5Walsh, ReeceNZLFLB80690.94221
6Garrick, ReubenMNLCTW80891.11219
7Grant, HarryMELHOK65711.3212
8Doueihi, AdamWSTFLB80791.01212
9Tedesco, JamesSYDFLB75841.09210
10Fifita, DavidGCT2RF65881.31209
11Schuster, JoshMNL2RF80640.8204
12Walker, CodySTHFE80841.06204
13Leilua, LucianoWST2RF80640.82204
14Walker, SamSYDHFB80670.85202
15Papalii, IsaiahPARFRF60801.18202
16Curran, JoshuaNZL2RF70711.01201
17Haas, PayneBROFRF60691.11199
18Gutherson, ClintPARFLB80760.96196
19Frizell, TysonNEW2RF75650.83195
20Mitchell, LatrellSTHFLB75821.04195
21Kennedy, WilliamSHAFLB80630.81193
22Cherry-Evans, DalyMNLHFB80730.91193
23Jackson, JoshBUL2RF75620.85193
24Holmes, ValentineNQCFLB80680.85192
25Barnett, MitchellNEW2RF70640.91191
26Munster, CameronMELFE80720.9189
27Thompson, LukeBULFRF55671.18188
28Brailey, JaydenNEWHOK75610.77186
29Young, HudsonCBR2RF70600.92186
30Edwards, DylanPTHFLB80620.8184
31Cook, DamienSTHHOK75640.83183
32Murray, CameronSTH2RF60701.14179
33Johnston, AlexSTHCTW80720.93179
34Ramien, JesseSHACTW80630.83177
35Koloamatangi, KeaonSTH2RF70600.83177
36Burton, MattPTHCTW80660.83176
37Thompson, CoreyGCTCTW80620.81176
38Mansour, JoshSTHCTW80690.88173
39Kelly, BrianGCTCTW80600.77171
40Gagai, DaneSTHCTW80680.86170
41Fisher-Harris, JamesPTHFRF50641.21170
42Manu, JosephSYDCTW80620.77166
43Rapana, JordanCBRCTW80630.78164
44Pangai, Tevita*PTHFRF45671.2153
RankingNamePosnRd 23 OPPRD 23 Est PtsRd 24 OPPRD 24 Est PtsRd 25 OPPRD 25 Est Pts
1Trbojevic, TomFLBCBR98BUL100NQC98
2Cleary, NathanHFBSTH79WST83PAR80
3Ponga, KalynFLBBUL86GCT73BRO79
4Papenhuyzen, RyanFLBGCT77PAR73SHA74
5Walsh, ReeceFLBBRO78CBR71GCT72
6Garrick, ReubenCTWCBR70BUL75NQC75
7Grant, HarryHOKGCT73PAR67SHA72
8Doueihi, AdamFLBSHA71PTH64BUL76
9Tedesco, JamesFLBSTG72STH65CBR72
10Fifita, David2RFMEL67NEW72NZL70
11Schuster, Josh2RFCBR66BUL69NQC69
12Walker, CodyFEPTH64SYD66STG75
13Leilua, Luciano2RFSHA67PTH66BUL71
14Walker, SamHFBSTG63STH61CBR78
15Papalii, IsaiahFRFNQC70MEL64PTH68
16Curran, Joshua2RFBRO68CBR68GCT65
17Haas, PayneFRFNZL67SHA65NEW67
18Gutherson, ClintFLBNQC72MEL61PTH62
19Frizell, Tyson2RFBUL67GCT63BRO66
20Mitchell, LatrellFLBPTH61SYD64STG70
21Kennedy, WilliamFLBWST65BRO73MEL55
22Cherry-Evans, DalyHFBCBR58BUL66NQC69
23Jackson, Josh2RFNEW65MNL63WST64
24Holmes, ValentineFLBPAR63STG67MNL61
25Barnett, Mitchell2RFBUL65GCT61BRO64
26Munster, CameronFEGCT65PAR62SHA63
27Thompson, LukeFRFNEW63MNL63WST62
28Brailey, JaydenHOKBUL62GCT64BRO61
29Young, Hudson2RFMNL62NZL62SYD63
30Edwards, DylanFLBSTH58WST65PAR61
31Cook, DamienHOKPTH59SYD65STG59
32Murray, Cameron2RFPTH59SYD60STG60
33Johnston, AlexCTWPTH58SYD58STG63
34Ramien, JesseCTWWST60BRO63MEL55
35Koloamatangi, Keaon2RFPTH58SYD60STG59
36Burton, MattCTWSTH56WST60PAR61
37Thompson, CoreyCTWMEL54NEW62NZL60
38Mansour, JoshCTWPTH56SYD56STG61
39Kelly, BrianCTWMEL52NEW61NZL58
40Gagai, DaneCTWPTH55SYD55STG60
41Fisher-Harris, JamesFRFSTH56WST57PAR58
42Manu, JosephCTWSTG57STH53CBR56
43Rapana, JordanCTWMNL54NZL58SYD52
44Pangai, Tevita*FRFSTH50WST51PAR52

End notes




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