Quantium stat analysis: Rd 22, vital numbers to beat the best

Statistics specialist Adam Driussi provides invaluable breakdowns to allow you to differ your side from those atop the rankings.

Stat analysis

Analysing the top 20,000 teams after Round 21

With just four weeks to go, it’s now or never in terms of making a POD move.  Just remember that the best POD move may just be to hold your last remaining trade or two!

With most teams heading for overall glory almost out of trades, I’ve retained the analysis on the ownership of injured, suspended or otherwise unavailable players (e.g. nuffs).  I’ve included the usual ownership tables at the end of the article for those interested.

Let’s look at the ownership levels of players in each position after round 21 to see how your squad stacks up.   

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Ownership of unavailable players

The first table below sets out the top 25 players currently unavailable this weekend. 

Angus Crichton is the big name on the list, with over 85% of players impacted by his three week suspension. Not the leader though – nice dodge. Injuries to Reed Mahoney, Jason Taumalolo and Dane Gagai, together with the suspensions on Matthew Lodge, Kurt Capewell and Jack Hetherington added to the pain for many Supercoaches.

Once again, the total at the bottom of the table shows the average number of players unavailable this weekend by ranking zone.  So, on average, the top 10,000 teams have 6.7 players unavailable this week – up from 6.1 last week. 

The table below outlines what proportion of teams in each ranking zone are missing a certain number of players. 

As you can see, less teams are short this week (pre-trades) – but remember that is including many players who I don’t think you really want to play. In the top 10,000 teams, 13% of teams are short at least one player.

Similarly, in the top 100, 6 of the top 100 teams are short players this week whilst a further 8 teams have exactly 17 players pre trades. As an example, the team coming 11th (sorry if you are reading..) are suddenly down to 15 players available prior to trading after losing each of Crichton, Mahoney, Gagai and Lodge this week – and that includes having to start TC Robati – ouch!

Fullback

Kalyn Ponga is now the second most owned FLB in the top 100. 

CTW

CTW remains a minefield for Supercoaches. Between Brian To’o and AJ going down, the uncertainty over Nicho Hynes and poor scores from David Nofoaluma, many teams will be struggling for depth with trades so low.

Five-eighth

Not a huge amount of change of ownership at five-eighth last week. 5% of owners sold SJ but it would appear that most of those sold to a hooker (Harry Grant) or 2RF (Cameron Murray) via the likes of Connor Watson and Brandon Smith.

Halfback

Again, not a lot of change at halfback beyond the sell down of SJ. 

2RF

The main news at 2RF last week was the three week suspension of Angus Crichton.  As someone who brought him back in last week, this was a huge blow.

The fact that Tohu Harris is still owned by 25% of the top 100 shows just how tight trades are getting.

There was some slight movement in ownership last week. 3% sold CHN (well done!) and 4% sold Tohu. Cameron Murray was picked up by 2% of teams and Angus Crichton was picked up by 1-2% of teams. I assume some others brought in Harry Grant via Brandon Smith.

FRF

Very little movement at FRF last week. Ryan James is suddenly back (at the Bulldogs!) for his owners – which could be a real bonus for teams scrambling for 17 players – or a potential AE risk for other teams depending on his role at the Dogs.

HOK

Harry Grant is now owned by 17% of the top 10,000 and 21 of the top 100 teams. If only he played 80 minutes!

Reed Mahoney’s season ending injury was tough to watch – but even tougher for the 24% of teams in the top 10,000 who owned him.

Round 21 Captaincy Choices

Round 21 saw some interesting captaincy choices. With Turbo taking on the Storm, the top 100 teams saw it as an opportunity to make a POD play…the only problem being that 58% of them all went with the same play in Adam Doueihi. 

Whilst Turbo and Doueihi dominated selections, around 30% of teams went with one of David Fifita, Cody Walker, Kalyn Ponga, James Tedesco or even wider. Hats off to the former leader who is now third who went ultra-wide with Toby Sexton.  Now that is a POD move.

The only ‘problem’ of course, is that each of these options scored almost identically!  So all these POD moves proved to be to no avail.

Best of luck to everyone in Round 22.  My round has already started badly by accidentally leaving Brandon Smith on my pine.  Siosifa Talakai – it is your time to step up!    

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