Quantium stat analysis: Rd 21, vital numbers to beat the best

Statistics specialist Adam Driussi provides invaluable breakdowns to allow you to differ your side from those atop the rankings.

Stat analysis

Analysing the top 20,000 teams after Round 20

Wow – Round 20 was rough. Between Jesse Ramien’s eye leaving me unexpectedly short and guys like Watson, Brailey, Talakai, CHN, the Cheese and Hynes scoring poorly it was an awful week for my side. Thankfully I captained Turbo but I’m glad it’s behind us.

With most teams heading for overall glory down to just a handful of trades, I’ve retained last week’s analysis on the ownership of injured, suspended or otherwise unavailable players (e.g. nuffs). I’ve included the usual ownership tables at the end of the article for those interested.

Let’s look at the ownership levels of players in each position after round 20 to see how your squad stacks up.   

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Ownership of unavailable players

The first table below sets out the top 50 players currently unavailable this weekend. It’s not quite as bad as last week, but that is primarily because teams used a trade dealing with Brian To’o, Shaun Johnson and others.  

Some heavily owned players return – most notably AFB, TPJ, Nathan Cleary and Valentine Holmes – but they are replaced on the out list by Jayden Brailey, Ben Hunt, Daine Laurie and Kotoni Staggs.

Once again, the total at the bottom of the table shows the average number of players unavailable this weekend by ranking zone. 

So, on average, the top 10,000 teams have 6.1 players unavailable this week compared with 7.6 last week.  

The table below shows what proportion of teams in each ranking zone are missing a certain number of players.  

As you can see, less teams are short this week (pre-trades) – but remember that is including many players who I don’t think you really want to play. As an example, I currently have 17 players but that includes Talakai, CHN, Watson and Hynes – all of whom have big question marks around them. 

Similarly, in the top 100, 19 of the top 100 teams are short players this week.  

Fullback

A surprising number of teams traded out Clint Gutherson to either Teddy, Kalyn Ponga or Latrell Mitchell. I don’t disagree with the trade at all – but wow, what a luxury!

CTW

Not surprisingly, Brian To’o’s ownership fell from 97% of the top 10,000 teams to 36%.

The most popular replacements for To’o were David Nofoaluma (+17% in top 10,000 but +29% in the top 100), Josh Addo-Carr (+10% in top 10,000 but +2% in the top 100), Dane Gagai (+5%), Kotoni Staggs (+3%) and Bradman Best (+2%).

Five-eighth

Approximately 25% of teams sold Shaun Johnson last week. The only real player to increase in ownership as a result was Adam Doueihi – who is now owned by 27% of the top 10,000 and 61% of the top 100!

Halfback

Halfback has turned into a disaster zone for many of us. The latest blow is for Ben Hunt owners and Jahrome Hughes’ owners will be hoping that he plays. Hughes is now the most owned halfback in the game. Daly Cherry-Evans is now owned by 16% of the top 10,000 and 26% of the top 100 teams. Well at least we have variation in ownership!

2RF 

With all the action elsewhere, there wasn’t a lot of trade activity at 2RF last week. A third of Tohu Harris’s owners moved him on, with sellers primarily bringing in one of David Fifita or Angus Crichton. 

FRF 

Payne Haas is now owned by 77% of the top 10,000 teams.  

HOK 

There was almost no change in player ownership at hooker last week.

Round 20 Captaincy Choices

In a week where looping was in play for many teams, I’m surprised that almost all teams stuck solid and captained Tommy Turbo. In saying that…how can you not given the form he is in! 12% of the top 100 looped and took Cody Walker’s 151. It’s crazy to think that move cost teams 75+ points!

With the Sea Eagles playing the Storm, no doubt we will see some more variation at captain this week.  

Best of luck to everyone in Round 21.    

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