Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 18?

• SQUAD BREAKDOWN: Rd 18 team insights and SuperCoach analysis
• CAPTAIN’S CHALLENGE: Who to skipper in Round 18

I’m back again for a look at start/sit this week. 

First off, thanks to ‘3 Wise Draftmen’, nrlsupercoachstats.com and Quantium for their amazing stats, which I utilise weekly for this analysis. 

So now onto the decisions. I’ve chosen players whose ownership is around 10% or higher in the top 20k, based on Quantium’s analysis. I’ve then ranked players who I consider as being borderline plays in SuperCoach 17’s this round. 

I’ve also analysed each player’s key stats (as explained below). 

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Description	Statistics
“Lower Floor”	Base (hit-ups & tackles) – negatives (errors etc.)
“Mid Floor”	Base (as above) + power (tackle breaks & offloads) – negatives
“Upper Floor”	Base (as above) + power (as above) + kicking (goals, forced dropouts, 40-20s) – negatives
“Ceiling”	The player’s highest score, in their last 3 seasons.

Rank	Player	Lower Floor	Mid Floor	Upper Floor	Ceiling	Season Ave	Estimated Points	Estimated Minutes
1	Laurie, Daine	23	32	33	119	58	69	80
2	Cook, Damien	42	48	48	146	59	58	65
3	Harawira-Naera, Corey	40	51	51	141	62	65	80
4	Walker, Sam	12	17	26	163	68	72	80
5	Burton, Matt	24	30	32	123	65	58	80
6	Matterson, Ryan	46	53	54	115	61	61	69
7	Fonua-Blake, Addin	44	52	52	142	55	55	55
8	Hunt, Ben	21	34	37	134	70	61	80
9	Nofoaluma, David	23	38	38	134	56	58	80
11	Schuster, Josh	34	43	45	93	64	60	70
12	Milne, Taane	20	29	30	131	58	59	80
13	Fisher-Harris, James	49	58	58	102	63	59	53
14	Thompson, Luke	54	60	60	92	65	60	55
15	Ramien, Jesse	31	50	50	124	61	55	80
16	Brailey, Jayden	49	51	52	102	64	56	80
17	Watson, Connor	40	47	47	117	62	52	50
18	Bird, Jack	32	42	43	107	57	52	80
19	Nikorima, Kodi	19	25	39	134	65	56	80
20	Barnett, Mitchell	46	53	57	125	65	53	50
21	Faasuamaleaui, Tino	45	50	50	110	57	52	50
22	Paulo, Junior	39	50	50	103	57	51	45
23	Capewell, Kurt	36	43	43	95	56	51	55
24	Kelly, Brian	26	35	35	109	54	51	80
25	Utoikamanu, Stefano	33	38	38	71	44	48	45
26	Gamble, Tyson	23	26	28	60	42	53	80
27	Saab, Jason	15	19	20	162	49	51	80
28	Staines, Charlie	16	20	21	158	42	48	80
29	Roberts, James	16	22	22	82	31	46	80

You’ll notice that I’ve ranked a few players above / below their estimated points. 

I like Damien Cook’s matchup vs the Dogs, even backing up from Origin. He has a 5-day turnaround and a high ceiling (even though he hasn’t reached it yet this season) so I’ve bumped him up the rankings. 

Sam Walker could be another high ceiling play for his matchup vs the Cowboys. However, he carries more risk with a low base. I’ve bumped him down the rankings slightly due to this. 

I expect Matt Burton to see more ball playing at 5/8^, so I’ve bumped him up a few spots. I’ve also moved Addin Fonua-Blake up the rankings, as I expect him to continue to improve following his return from injury a few weeks back. 

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Ben Hunt has a short turnaround following his Origin heroics, so I’ve bumped him down a few spots. On the other hand, I like the matchup for David Nofoaluma on his preferred right wing against the Broncos. 

Kodi Nikorima I’ve bumped down the rankings due to losing the goalkicking last week. He may also have been carrying an injury niggle of some sort. I’ve also dropped Jason Saab down the rankings, as his stats are significantly better when Turbo is in the side. 

Hopefully the rest of the rankings are reasonably self-explanatory. 

Good luck with your selections!

End notes

¹ https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen

² https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com 

³ http://13.210.220.211/category/stat-analysis/