Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 18?

We take a deep dive into the projected output of fringe 17 players to help you decide who to sit and start in your weekly team.

Strategy Playbook

I’m back again for a look at start/sit this week. 

First off, thanks to ‘3 Wise Draftmen’, nrlsupercoachstats.com and Quantium for their amazing stats, which I utilise weekly for this analysis. 

So now onto the decisions. I’ve chosen players whose ownership is around 10% or higher in the top 20k, based on Quantium’s analysis. I’ve then ranked players who I consider as being borderline plays in SuperCoach 17’s this round. 

I’ve also analysed each player’s key stats (as explained below). 

PRICE DROP!!! Sign up to SC Playbook for just $20 for extra premium articles every round, including access to our subscriber special question and answer podcast.

DescriptionStatistics
“Lower Floor”Base (hit-ups & tackles) – negatives (errors etc.)
“Mid Floor”Base (as above) + power (tackle breaks & offloads) – negatives 
“Upper Floor”Base (as above) + power (as above) + kicking (goals, forced dropouts, 40-20s) – negatives 
“Ceiling”The player’s highest score, in their last 3 seasons. 
RankPlayerLower FloorMid FloorUpper FloorCeilingSeason AveEstimated PointsEstimated Minutes
1Laurie, Daine233233119586980
2Cook, Damien424848146595865
3Harawira-Naera, Corey405151141626580
4Walker, Sam121726163687280
5Burton, Matt243032123655880
6Matterson, Ryan465354115616169
7Fonua-Blake, Addin445252142555555
8Hunt, Ben213437134706180
9Nofoaluma, David233838134565880
11Schuster, Josh34434593646070
12Milne, Taane202930131585980
13Fisher-Harris, James495858102635953
14Thompson, Luke54606092656055
15Ramien, Jesse315050124615580
16Brailey, Jayden495152102645680
17Watson, Connor404747117625250
18Bird, Jack324243107575280
19Nikorima, Kodi192539134655680
20Barnett, Mitchell465357125655350
21Faasuamaleaui, Tino455050110575250
22Paulo, Junior395050103575145
23Capewell, Kurt36434395565155
24Kelly, Brian263535109545180
25Utoikamanu, Stefano33383871444845
26Gamble, Tyson23262860425380
27Saab, Jason151920162495180
28Staines, Charlie162021158424880
29Roberts, James16222282314680

You’ll notice that I’ve ranked a few players above / below their estimated points. 

I like Damien Cook’s matchup vs the Dogs, even backing up from Origin. He has a 5-day turnaround and a high ceiling (even though he hasn’t reached it yet this season) so I’ve bumped him up the rankings. 

Sam Walker could be another high ceiling play for his matchup vs the Cowboys. However, he carries more risk with a low base. I’ve bumped him down the rankings slightly due to this. 

I expect Matt Burton to see more ball playing at 5/8, so I’ve bumped him up a few spots. I’ve also moved Addin Fonua-Blake up the rankings, as I expect him to continue to improve following his return from injury a few weeks back. 

FOLLOW OUR TIPS USING EXCLUSIVE TOPSPORT MARKETS! TopSport are home of the only true same-game multi, where the market odds ACTUALLY add up. Use the code ‘SCPLAYBOOK’ when signing up.

Ben Hunt has a short turnaround following his Origin heroics, so I’ve bumped him down a few spots. On the other hand, I like the matchup for David Nofoaluma on his preferred right wing against the Broncos. 

Kodi Nikorima I’ve bumped down the rankings due to losing the goalkicking last week. He may also have been carrying an injury niggle of some sort. I’ve also dropped Jason Saab down the rankings, as his stats are significantly better when Turbo is in the side. 

Hopefully the rest of the rankings are reasonably self-explanatory. 

Good luck with your selections!

End notes

1 https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen

2 https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com 

3 https://scplaybook.com.au/category/stat-analysis/ 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *