Quantium stat analysis: Rd 16, vital numbers to beat the best

Statistics specialist Adam Driussi provides invaluable breakdowns to allow you to differ your side from those atop the rankings.

Stat analysis

The conclusion of Origin 2 marks a huge point in the Supercoach season.  

With 10 rounds left, teams will need to think carefully around their strategy entering the super trade week.  

Most teams are likely poorly placed in terms of player numbers for round 17 at this stage and there aren’t exactly a range of obvious keepers to bring in over the next two weeks. 

That extra number in round 17 could easily come back to bite you if it costs you a gun player for the run home.

Throw in an injury to Nathan Cleary, a suspension to Tevita Pangai Jr and Josh Curran being in isolation for round 17 and it’s back to the drawing board for many coaches.

Let’s take a look at the ownership levels of players in each position to try to give you an edge in making those trade decisions over the next few weeks.

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Fullback

Round 15 was all about Tom Turbo. Those teams that captained him surged up the rankings, those who had him and didn’t captain him probably didn’t move too much and those who owned Teddy instead plummeted down the rankings.

The table below shows the impact when you look at the ownership levels of Teddy by ranking zone. Only 8% of the top 100 teams own Teddy versus 50% of the teams ranked 10-20,000. Having Turbo and Gutho as your fullbacks over the past month has proved to be one of the most critical Supercoach decisions this year.  

Hats off to the leading team on bringing in William Kennedy. That is a HUGE move.  Just 7 of the top 10,000 teams (yes 7) own Kennedy so for team number 1 to bring him in was a gutsy play.   

CTW

Round 15 saw quite a bit of trade action at CTW. Daine Laurie fell from being owned by 85% of the top 10,000 teams to 26% – and as low as 16% of the top 100.  Similarly, Charlie Staines fell from 27% of the top 10,000 to 9%. Finally, Bradman Best went from 11% of the top 10,000 teams to 7%.

So who did these teams buy?

Alex Johnston increased from being owned by 37% of the top 10,000 teams (and 59 of the top 100) to 72% of the top 10,000 and 92 of the top 100. I avoided AJ and am already sick of the bloke scoring tries! 

Greg Marzhew increased from 4% ownership amongst the top 10,000 teams to 28%, whilst Reuben Garrick increased from 6% to 17%.  

The ownership of these two guys is very different amongst the top 100 – who are clearly more focused on round 17.  A whopping 36 of the top 100 now own Garrick.

Garrick’s owners would have been fuming at half time against the Titans where from memory he was scoring less than zero.  A 150+ point second half rectified that pretty quickly – madness. At $728k I couldn’t possibly bring him in now – good luck to any teams that bought him for half that price.

The other player that attracted interest was Siosifa Talakai. His ownership increased from 0% to 11% across the top 10,000 teams.  

His new owners (including me) would have been happy with his start only to see him ‘miss’ two of the worst ‘tackles’ you would ever see. I use the apostrophes because technically one of the efforts was so bad I’m not sure it even went down as a missed tackle. 

Josh Hannay obviously agreed as Talakai was seemingly hooked for almost the entire second half. A good reminder on why it is best not going early on players I guess.

Speaking of which, the 7 teams in the top 100 who went early on Matthew Timoko ahead of round 17 would be gutted to see him replaced by Jarrod Croker this week.

Five-eighth

Not surprisingly, Cody Walker is now the most owned five-eighth in Supercoach. 81% of the top 10,000 teams own Walker, up from 69% last week. As a gun player available in round 17 with a friendly draw he is surely a must-have.  

Shaun Johnson increased from 2% to 13% ownership amongst the top 10,000 teams whilst Connor Watson fell by roughly 20%.

Halfback

Once again, not a lot happened at halfback last week in terms of trades (beyond Burton to SJ). Expect that to change this week with Nathan Cleary injured though!

2RF 

Carnage at 2RF with Tevita Pangai Jr – owned by 86% of the top 10,000 teams suspended for three weeks. Add the COVID induced two week isolation for Josh Curran, and we will see lots of trades here. I suspect Tohu Harris will be close to the most owned 2RF this time next week.  

The ownership of Luke Thompson is interesting. 27% of the top 10,000 teams own Thompson but just 5 of the top 100.  

Jason Taumalolo is almost unrecognisable in Supercoach this year. One of the all time great players is down to $475k and plays round 17 – yet looks a risk to bring in. Hard to believe!

FRF 

Not a huge amount of action at FRF last week. Sio Siua Taukeiaho’s ownership increased from 12% of the top 10,000 teams to 17% whilst we saw small reductions for Spencer Leniu and Stefano Utoikamanu.

HOK 

As already flagged, the key change at HOK was the reduction in ownership of Connor Watson. Jayden Brailey also reduced from 81% to 78%.

Damien Cook’s ownership increased by 5%, Karl Lawton’s by 4% and Harry Grant’s by 2%.

Round 15 Captaincy Choices

With Tommy Turbo posting a double tonne, round 15 captaincy choice proved to be crucial in determining rankings. As you would expect, the top 100 teams are heavily skewed towards teams that captained Turbo – those who were previously in the top 100 who captained Nicho Hynes instead took a 124 point hit.

Best of luck to everyone in Round 16.  Use your trades wisely!

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