Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 14?

We take a deep dive into the projected output of fringe 17 players to help you decide who to sit and start in your weekly team.

Strategy Playbook

I’m back again for a look at start/sit this week.

First off, thanks to ‘3 Wise Draftmen’[i], nrlsupercoachstats.com[ii] and Quantium[iii] for their amazing stats, which I’ve referenced for this analysis.

The 3 Wise Draftmen provide weekly position scoring stats across the season, as well as for the last 3 rounds and 5 rounds. The nrlsupercoachstats.com website provides comprehensive stats in almost any SuperCoach category you can imagine. The Quantium stat analysis looks at player ownership, specific to segments of SuperCoach rankings. All of these are weekly must-reads in my opinion.

So now onto the decisions. I’ve chosen players whose ownership is around 10% or higher in the top 20k ranked SuperCoach teams, based on Quantium’s analysis.

I’ve then ranked players who I consider as being borderline plays in SuperCoach 17’s this round. I’ve then taken a look at each player’s floor, based on the following statistics from nrlsupercoachstats.com:

DescriptionStatistics
“Lower Floor”Base (hit-ups & tackles) – negatives (errors etc.)
“Mid Floor”Base (as above) + power (tackle breaks & offloads) – negatives
“Upper Floor”Base (as above) + power (as above) + kicking (goals, forced dropouts, 40-20s) – negatives

Reserves

Of those that are ‘borderline’ plays for strong 17s, I have Adam Doueihi and Sam Walker atop the list. Doueihi has a tough matchup vs the Eels, but his floor is high enough to play anyway.

Most will have to play Sam Walker, now that Cleary is ruled out. However, if you do need to make a choice, I’d be looking to get him into your 17 in any case, coming off a rest, with a decent matchup vs the Titans. Not far behind him is Matt Burton, who’s been sensational this season and will take on an increased role at 5/8 for the game against the Sharks.

Watson has still been ticking along okay, despite reduced minutes. I’m happy to play him most weeks, given his attacking upside. His competitor for minutes, Mitch Barnett, has continued his SuperCoach decline since moving to lock. He may kick the odd goal, so isn’t the worst play, but I prefer others if you can swing it.

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Embed from Getty Images

I have a series of front-rowers rounding out the list. Of them, Taukeiaho is my preferred option, given his recent elevation back to the starting team. I have Paulo, then Fa’asuamaleaui following, given they’re backing up from Origin duty.

Paulo looks a better play to me of these two, as he played approx. half the mins of big Tino on Wednesday night.

Utoikamanu isn’t the worst play, if you’re short on numbers like me. He’s shown ability to jag attacking stats, especially when coming off the bench. Meanwhile, Leniu disappointed last week, despite starting for the Panthers.

Rankings:

RankPlayer
1Doueihi
2S Walker*
3Burton
4Watson
5Barnett
6Taukeiaho**
7Paulo
8Fa’asuamaleaui
9Utoikamanu
10Leniu

Player Floors:

PlayerLower FloorMid FloorUpper Floor
Doueihi323244
S Walker*121728
Burton233131
Watson434849
Barnett445357
Taukeiaho**434343
Paulo425151
Fa’asuamaleaui455050
Utoikamanu343838
Leniu283131

*Upper floor adjusted to only reflect goalkicking games

**Excludes goalkicking points

Player Averages:

PlayerSeason Ave3 Rd Avg5 Rd Avg
Doueihi745886
S Walker*733679
Burton648566
Watson626161
Barnett675150
Taukeiaho**564348
Paulo585252
Fa’asuamaleaui566355
Utoikamanu464843
Leniu343130

Player Matchups:

PlayerVsPositionRds 1-11 or 12 points concededRd 12 or 13 points conceded
DoueihiEelsR/CTR4357
S Walker*TitansR/HLF4724
BurtonSharksL/HLF?4634
WatsonRabbitohsLOCK5545
BarnettRabbitohsLOCK5545
Taukeiaho**TitansFRF5133
PauloTigersFRF5845
Fa’asuamaleauiRoostersLOCK5147
UtoikamanuEelsFRF5734

CTW

Daine Laurie has the makings of a SuperCoach legend the season! Available at CTW to start the season at bottom dollar, then going on to become a potential keeper.

His matchup against the Eels isn’t as difficult as it looks, so I have him atop this list. The matchup is actually a little tougher than it looks for Sivo. However, his form is such that I still have him second on the list.

Embed from Getty Images

If Suaalii can somehow find a starting spot in the Roosters backline this week, he’ll be a great play. It seems unlikely at this point though, with Teddy firming to backup.

Whilst not on this list, I think Greg Marzhew could be a viable alternative to Suaalii, for those looking for a CTW cheapie. You’ll need to take a risk on getting him a week early, with Don lurking in the reserves. However, Marzhew looks to have the power game of a SC gun, notching 82 points in his first game, including 61 in base + power (offloads and tackle breaks)!

Nofoaluma disappointed in the bye round, but still looks a solid enough play. I have a surprise candidate in Simonsson, following him on the list. Simonsson hasn’t impressed for SuperCoach purposes so far this season, but the matchup for fullbacks vs Broncos is such that I think he could well be worth a play this round.

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Best also disappointed in the bye round, but if you own like me, you may be forced to play him. Likewise for Brian Kelly.

The matchup isn’t as favourable as it appears for Reimis Smith, so he follows. Then Capewell if he backs up (expecting reduced minutes) and Peachey (named on the bench).

Staines will probably continue to be a SuperCoach lottery. While Saab has struggled without Turbo this season. Roberts has looked better on the wing, but I’d avoid playing him against the Eels, if at all possible.

Rankings:

RankPlayer
1Laurie
2Sivo
3Suaali
4Nofoaluma
5Simonsson
6Best
7Kelly
8R Smith
9Capewell
10Peachey
11Staines
12Saab
13Roberts

Player Floors:

PlayerLower FloorMid FloorUpper Floor
Laurie253536
Sivo213434
Suaali273434
Nofoaluma264242
Simonsson202626
Best323939
Kelly253535
R Smith263333
Capewell374444
Peachey354144
Staines162122
Saab161919
Roberts172222

Player Averages:

PlayerSeason Ave3 Rd Avg5 Rd Avg
Laurie627960
Sivo678164
Suaalii54
Nofoaluma605365
Simonsson343040
Best514441
Kelly545858
R Smith544445
Capewell605962
Peachey604559
Staines454464
Saab435764
Roberts324030

Player Matchups:

PlayerVsPositionRds 1-11 or 12 points concededRd 12 or 13 points conceded
LaurieEelsFLB6738
SivoTigersL/WING5641
SuaaliiTitansR/CTR?53124
NofoalumaEelsL/WING6431
SimonssonBroncosFLB95156
BestRabbitohsL/CTR5218
KellyRoostersL/CTR4227
R SmithWarriorsR/CTR3971
CapewellSharksR/2RF?6177
PeacheySharksLOCK?5847
StainesSharksR/WING5738
SaabCowboysR/WING4982
RobertsEelsR/WING4329

Good luck with your selections!

End notes


[i] https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen

[ii] https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com

[iii] https://scplaybook.com.au/2021/04/28/quantium-stat-analysis-rd-8-vital-numbers-to-beat-the-best/

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