Quantium stat analysis: Rd 14, vital numbers to beat the best

Statistics specialist Adam Driussi provides invaluable breakdowns to allow you to differ your side from those atop the rankings.

Stat analysis

Analysing the top 20,000 teams after Round 13

As expected, our first bye week resulted in some huge differences in scores – and hence some huge ranking changes for some teams. 

Team compositions changed a lot, and some teams made some huge moves – including the team now leading who brought in Matt Dufty and successfully played him as VC.

Mind you, the team now coming sixth did the same – great POD moves.

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Fullback

Clint Gutherson is now the most owned fullback in the top 1,000 teams – up from 26% a week ago to 77% today (and 87% amongst the top 100 teams). I’m happy to say that I was one of those teams and gave Clint the armband on debut.

Matt Dufty was brought in by 4 teams in the top 100 – huge move. I know he plays the Bulldogs this week, but Gutho plays the Tigers then Bulldogs so I suspect he may still prove the better play.

Less than 50% of the top 10,000 teams (and 32 of the top 100) now own James Tedesco. The bye at least created some variation in fullback ownership!

CTW

With the first bye round out of the way, I suspect we will see plenty of trade action at CTW in coming weeks. 

Many of the most commonly owned players are unavailable in Round 17 and with Ryan Papenhuyzen coming back soon I assume many teams will cash in on Nicholas Hynes and Daine Laurie in coming weeks. Joseph Suaalii on the other hand will be a must have at the price if named this week pending the availability of James Tedesco after Origin.

Bradman Best’s ownership doubled last week, and his new owners would have been very disappointed in his score of 16. Maika Sivo, on the other hand, delivered in spades for the 5% of teams in the top 10,000 who brought him in. 

Five-eighth

Matt Burton is now the most owned five-eighth in the top 20,000 teams. Whilst I’m one of those owners, I suspect that will change pretty quickly in coming weeks.

Tyson Gamble did well to outscore the likes of Adam Doueihi last weekend, whilst Albert Kelly looked great for the 3% of teams who own him.

Jarome Luai is owned by 39 of the top 100 teams but his owners will be hoping he steps up fast after Origin – he is bleeding cash and more importantly points in recent weeks.

3 of the top 100 teams brought in Corey Norman.

Halfback

What a difference a few weeks makes. Three weeks ago, almost 100% of teams owned Sam Walker. Suddenly he could be a huge POD play in Round 17 against the Bulldogs for the 16% of teams in the top 10,000 who still own him.

Jahrome Hughes is now owned by 23% of the top 10,000 and a whopping 46 of the top 100 teams. I suspect they were hoping for more than 63 points against the Titans last week. 

Ben Hunt was also a popular trade-in and he delivered with a score of 88. With a match up now against the Bulldogs he could prove a very handy POD move.

2RF

The most popular trade-in target at 2RF last week was Brandon Smith – with his ownership increasing from 23% of the top 10,000 teams to 39%. With a score of 74 and a nice price rise he delivered for his new owners (including me). Now will he just hurry up and sign with the Dogs!

Kurt Capewell, Josh Curran, Ryan James and Angus Crichton were sold off last week, whilst each of TPJ, Ryan Matterson and JFH also saw increases in ownership.

No doubt many of Mitch Barnett’s owners will be quick to part ways with the big fella this week. As a non-owner, it’s been great to watch him average 53 over the past 7 rounds – a very handy anti-POD at 2RF.

FRF

Stefano Utoikamanu you little beauty. Like most owners, I thought he was finished for the night before his final 5-10 minute cameo saw him jag a try and a nice price boost. Exactly what you want from a guy you hold onto in case he manages to play during bye round. 

Isaiah Papali’i on the other hand was very disappointing. A handful of errors and an early shower combined to result in a season low score of 48. He now threatens to bleed cash over the coming fortnight but equally has a juicy draw against the Tigers and Bulldogs. What to do?!

HOK

Jayden Brailey and Connor Watson, thanks for your service. I suspect like many Supercoaches, I will be looking to move both Brailey and Watson on over the coming month. If Watson could just play 80 minutes each week he would be a keeper – but Adam O’Brien seems hellbent on screwing us around on that one.

With Harry Grant and Damien Cook both missing round 17 it’s not obvious who to bring in.  Hopefully a cheapie will emerge between now and then.

Round 13 Captaincy Choices

Captaincy choice this week was fairly correlated with ranking. The top 1,000 teams were skewed towards Clint Gutherson over Nicho Hynes (note, 50% of the top 1,000 teams had Hynes as VC) whereas the teams outside the top 1,000 were more likely to captain Hynes (and many had Matt Burton as VC).

Isaiah Papali’i was a flop for the 8% of teams in the top 10,000 who captained him.

Four of the six teams in the top 100 who looped vice captained Matt Dufty whilst the other two teams vice captained Nico Hynes.

Best of luck to everyone in Round 14 and go the Blues on Wednesday! With plenty of Origin players likely to pull out of games over the weekend, it could be carnage so be careful with your team selections!

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