Well it’s certainly relieving to put the first major bye round behind us all.
Hopefully you navigated your way through it okay, and we can now set our sights on Round 17 and the run home.
The Cooma Stallions are on the charge with a decent score of 937 to move into 1,544th overall.
I’ll be looking to save at least 2/11 trades between now and Round 17, while I’m also eyeing the likes of David Fifita and Harry Grant in coming weeks despite the fact they won’t play the next major bye round.
It’s time to move on the junk we held as extra numbers for Round 13, and look to secure keepers along with the odd bottom dollar cheapie to free up cash to be spent elsewhere.
However, job security will be just as important as immediate cash generation in those cheapies as we’ll need depth from now until the end of season!
Let’s take a look at the Round 14 teams which are likely to change plenty with players backing up from Origin.
Apologies in advance if any names are out of place, it should all be fine but with teams dropping straight into the podcast recording it’s a busy time with extended squads being named and players moving all over the place.
Reserves: 18. Kurt De Luis 19. Cade Cust 20. Christian Tuipulotu 21. Jorge Taufua 22. Tolutau Koula
Analysis: Manly players come into strong contention from here on out with an excellent upcoming draw against the Cowboys, Titans, Dogs and then the Raiders in the Round 17 bye week, then the Dragons and Tigers afterwards.
Unfortunately a lot of their SuperCoach relevance comes off the back of Tom Trbojevic who I’m tipping to miss three of the next five games with Manly backing up two days after Origin 1 and 3. He’s been named, but that doesn’t mean he’ll play.
I think the time to sell Turbo was last week, although you could make the case this week too if he is a late out, but the upcoming draw is super enticing for him when he is on deck. Obviously if he does play there’s no way you’d sell.
You could go either way with Jason Saab who has a breakeven of 109. Almost all his decent scores this season have been with Turbo on deck.
I’m tempted to hold through till Round 17 now having originally planned to sell last week.
Reuben Garrick has flown under the radar to average 71PPG and is a sneaky POD with a decent 27BPG and goal-kicking duties. He has three tons to his name but will cost you an arm and a leg at $653k.
Despite not being named, ff you held Josh Schuster through last week’s bye you may as well hold till Round 17, however Cody Walker will be tempting.
Recruit Karl Lawton has been named to start again. He’s awkwardly priced at $341k with a breakeven of -21 having scored 89 and 58 the past two weeks, in 73 and 47 minutes respectively.
He’ll tempt many, but surely minutes are an issue going forward with Schuster and Curtis Sironen due back very soon?
Marty Taupau has found form of late with a 5RA of 74PPG and a low score of 55 in that time that had 61 in base and a sin-bin.
After putting the offload away early in the season, it’s made a return with 15 offloads in the past five rounds.
He’s played slightly bigger minutes the past three rounds and needs that to continue to remain an option. With a breakeven of 93 I’m keen for a bit more of a look.
Reserves: 18. Justin O’Neill 19. Ben Condon 20. Daejarn Asi 21. Corey Jensen 22. Kyle Laybutt
Analysis: The Cowboys also have added relevance now that they’ve had their bye.
Val Holmes is an option and is owned by just 33% of the top 100 ranked SuperCoach teams and 23% of the top 1000.
Provided he backs up from Origin, he has a nice run of games against the Sea Eagles, Sharks and Knights.
While tempting, I’ll likely wait until Round 18 to consider recruiting.
Jason Taumalolo is dirt cheap at $567k with a breakeven of 115. He was sin-binned in his past game where he scored just 42, so I’ll likely wait until he bottoms out in a few weeks before buying.
Even if he doesn’t return to his best SuperCoach scoring of past years he’s a very strong bye coverage purchase that at absolute worst case can sit in your reserves for the rest of the season. It’ll all come down to his minutes.
Heilum Luki was tempting with a breakeven of -35 and is bottom dollar at $173.4k, however he missed the squad this week having not met “club standards for the past 10 days”.
Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Charlie Staines 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Paul Momirovski 5. Robert Jennings 6. Matt Burton 7. Tyrone May 8. Moses Leota 9. Api Koroisau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Scott Sorensen 13. Matthew Eisenhuth
Titans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Greg Marzhew 3. Brian Kelly 4. Patrick Herbert 5. Phillip Sami 6. Ash Taylor 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Jarrod Wallace 9. Erin Clark 10. Moeaki Fotuaika 11. Kevin Proctor 12. David Fifita 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
Bench: 14. Tyrone Peachey 15. Jaimin Jolliffe 16. Sam McIntyre 17. Esan Marsters
Reserves: 18. Sam Stone 19. Joseph Vuna 20. Jai Whitbread 21. Jayden Campbell 22. Anthony Don 23. Mitch Rein
Analysis: The Titans miss Round 17 and don’t present much interest at all as a result.
David Fifita should be back on everyone’s radar. However, at $802k with a breakeven of 126 and potentially fewer minutes post Origin I think he’s more of a buy for next week.
The much hyped Greg Marzhew is a close watch ahead of his second game after a blistering debut and may well come into calculations next week.
Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Josh Morris 4. Joseph Manu 5. Matt Ikuvalu 6. Lachlan Lam 7. Sam Walker 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Ben Marschke 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Angus Crichton 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Isaac Liu
Bench: 14. Adam Keighran 15. Nat Butcher 16. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 17. Fletcher Baker
Reserves: 18. Tuku Hau Tapuha 19. Ben Thomas 20. Brad Abbey 21. Joseph Suaalii
Analysis: The Roosters play Round 17 and now become hot property.
Do be aware though they have a tough draw after this clash, with games against the Panthers and Storm.
As such, they’re probably more buys for Round 17 where they face the Bulldogs.
Daniel Tupou looks a great buy with an excellent 32BPG and a season average of 63PPG.
Sam Walker returns which is good news for Tupou’s try-scoring potential. With a breakeven of 89 then those tough games, along with potential for an Origin call up for Game 3, I’ll be patient and wait.
It’ll be the same for Matt Ikuvalu who is a strong option going forward as a huge POD.
Angus Crichton returns from suspension and is a great buy as a season-long keeper with a breakeven of just 18.
He’s more valuable now that many sold when he was suspended.
Joseph Suaalii has been named on the extended bench and likely only plays if James Tedesco doesn’t back up from Origin.
Keep a trade up your sleeve for him ahead of his third game and first price rise if he does come into the side.
Reserves: 18. Liam Knight 19. Patrick Mago 20. Blake Taaffe 21. Josh Mansour 22. Tautau Moga 23. Peter Mamouzelos
Analysis: The Bunnies appear the team to target at the moment with a dream run of games against the Knights, Broncos, Tigers, Cowboys, Bulldogs, Warriors and Dragons.
It’s about as good as you could ask for. The only downside is that so many enticing players are Origin bound such as Dane Gagai, Latrell Mitchell, Campbell Graham and Cody Walker.
I prefer Gagai to Graham due to the fact he plays on the lethal left edge that sees all the best ball in attacking territory, however he’s been left out of the squad following Origin and isn’t an option.
Alex Johnston won’t be playing Origin and is the perfect player for the run home to sit/start in your 17 based on match up. Which with that draw means he’s a start for the next seven weeks at least.
He’s also coming off a hat-trick and has a breakeven of 1 so now is the week to jump on, I’m pretty keen despite his very poor output of 19BPG.
As it stands, Cody Walker is sitting outside the Origin frame and at $533k looks a brilliant buy this week.
He’s been super consistent this season despite not going large. Outside of his horrid 16 against the Storm, all his scores have fallen between 52 and 95.
A century is on the way, surely! Great buy… Latrell is also a huge option at 0% ownership among the top 1,000 teams.
Winger Taane Milne has job security issues, but at just $187k with a breakeven of -10 he’s a serious option.
Even if he did drop out of the side at all, he should play Round 17 with players out on Origin duty, interesting.
Cam Murray would be an option, but he’ll need attacking stats in what may well be several blow out scorelines, and on return from injury during a busy Origin period he’s likely to be managed by Wayne Bennett, so I’m not keen.
Damien Cook is a huge POD that could breakthrough after a slow start to the SuperCoach season, however he’s likely to be managed also.
Knights: 1. Tex Hoy 2. Enari Tuala 3. Kurt Mann 4. Bradman Best 5. Brayden Musgrove 6. Jake Clifford 7. Phoenix Crossland 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Brodie Jones 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Mitchell Barnett
Bench: 14. Connor Watson 15. Sauaso Sue 16. Josh King 17. Jack Johns
Reserves: 18. Gehamat Shibasaki 19. Jirah Momoisea 20. Matt Croker 21. Dom Young
Analysis: It’s time to say goodbye to a host of Knights SuperCoach players.
Mitch Barnett and Connor Watson are genuine keepers when playing 65+ minutes, but they’re both lucky to get 50-60 at the moment.
They’ve been solid while extremely frustrating for owners.
Both have manageable breakevens so they aren’t urgent sells, but I do think it’s time for them to go.
The Knights terrible form has made life tough for Bradman Best who struggled in the bye week match.
Provided the Knights find some shred of form as players begin to return – namely Kalyn Ponga – I think he’ll bounce back.
At $407k he’s lost all value and isn’t worth trading at all, especially with his monster base (that was absent on the weekend).
As mentioned last week, the Knights have an incredible run home that’ll coincide with head-to-head finals, so I’d be holding for sure, but he’s obviously not necessarily a straight up play in 17s at the moment.
Jayden Brailey has a breakeven of 86 and is still decent value at $499k.
Whether you hold or sell will likely be up to how your team is set up, but a move to Harry Grant in coming rounds looks a nice play. There’s no harm in holding though.
Raiders: 1. Bailey Simonsson 2. Semi Valemei 3. Sebastian Kris 4. Matt Timoko 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Sam Williams 8. Josh Papalii 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Dunamis Lui 11. Corey Harawira-Naera 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Ryan Sutton
Bench: 14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Sia Soliola 17. Joe Tapine
Reserves: 18. Elijah Anderson 19. Hudson Young 20. Matt Frawley 21. Harry Rushton
Analysis: Canberra come into consideration with the bye out of the way and a great upcoming draw against the Broncos, Dragons, Titans, Sea Eagles (Origin week) and Sharks.
However, on current form it’s hard to make a case for any players until we see any sort of return to form.
One to consider though is Corey Harawira-Naera who was exceptional in an ordinary team performance against the Roosters.
He’s still very affordable at $464k with a breakeven of 19 and a season average of 64PPG.
Not overly renowned for his base, he’s been incredible in the past three games averaging 55.3BPG. He’s dishing out 45BPG across the season.
In six games he also has just the one try so far.
On face value he appears a great investment, and as a Kiwi will be available Round 17, but with the Raiders struggling there will always be some concern over his job security.
Although the club’s injury toll will work in his favour and allay some fear.
Jordan Rapana has been on a tear this season with an average of 63PPG, but with a breakeven of 118 and the Raiders form he’s worth having a look at for a few more weeks.
Bailey Simonsson shifts to fullback and is worth holding for any owners while we see what he has too offer in the No.1 jumper.
Bench: 14. Jack Murchie 15. Kane Evans 16. Bunty Afoa 17. Ben Murdoch-Masila
Reserves: 18. Jazz Tevaga 20. Sean O’Sullivan 21. Ken Maumalo 23. Addin Fonua-Blake
Analysis: The Warriors have a mixed run of games against the Storm, Knights, Dragons and Sharks before facing the Panthers in Round 18.
Reece Walsh was enticing due to his stunning rise in the NRL at $532k with a breakeven of -8 and a season average of 76PPG, however he hasn’t been named in the squad due to suspension, so monitor for next week.
Lock Tohu Harris into your side anytime now and enjoy the effortless scoring. He has a low score of just 58 and just three scores under 70. With a breakeven of 114 there’s no urgency and his relative lack of ceiling means you won’t be burnt if you wait.
Kodi Nikorima is owned by just 5% of the top 100 ranked SuperCoach sides and 2% of the top 1,000.
While typically he is a rocks and diamonds SuperCoach player, he does have a 5RA of 81PPG with a low score in that time of just 61.
With a breakeven of 99 and a brutal clash with the Storm looming I’d wait a week for anyone interested.
Addin Fonua-Blake is a huge watch leading into Round 17.
Reserves: 18. Will Smith 19. Blake Ferguson 20. Jakob Arthur 21. Nathaniel Roache
Analysis: King Gutho delivered for new owners with 121 points. The Eels face the Tigers and Bulldogs over the next fortnight where he could go large again. They then face the Panthers, followed by the bye, and Titans.
With Fergy Ferg lurking, I don’t trust Haze Dunster’s job security to warrant buying, especially with a breakeven of 27.
Ryan Matterson delivered for his masses of owners with 95 points. He’s extremely cheap at $525k with a breakeven of 63.
Despite last week being the time to buy, he remains a strong option for anyone keen.
Pending further news on Reed Mahoney’s injury, I’ll likely be moving either him or Jayden Brailey to Harry Grant next week.
Tigers: 1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Adam Doueihi 4. Tommy Talau 5. James Roberts 6. Moses Mbye 7. Luke Brooks 8. James Tamou 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Alex Twal 11. Luke Garner 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Joe Ofahengaue
Bench: 14. Stefano Utoikamanu 15. Shawn Blore 16. Tom Amone 17. Alex Seyfarth
Reserves: 18. Michael Chee-Kam 19. Billy Walters 20. Kelma Tuilagi 21. Jake Simpkin
Analysis: The Tigers have a brutal upcoming draw against the Eels, Storm and Bunnies. As such, I definitely wouldn’t be buying any players from the squad.
Despite the poor form, I think I’d just hold David Nofoaluma if I owned, although I’d try avoid playing him the next three weeks.
I think Daine Laurie and Adam Doueihi are both probably sells having done an outstanding job thus far.
You could certainly make a case for holding either though.
A shout out to big Stefano Utoikamanu who bagged one of the timeliest NRL tries SuperCoaches have ever seen to score 71 points in the only week owners needed him to go well.
He has a breakeven of 27 and can be sold anytime in coming weeks.
Bulldogs: 1. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 2. Nick Cotric 3. Will Hopoate 4. Aaron Schoupp 5. Nick Meaney 6. Brandon Wakeham 7. Jake Averillo 8. Jack Hetherington 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Luke Thompson 11. Adam Elliott 12. Matt Doorey 13. Josh Jackson
Bench: 14. Sione Katoa 15. Dylan Napa 16. Ava Seumanufagai 17. Joe Stimson
Reserves: 19. Kyle Flanagan 20. Corey Waddell 21. Tuipulotu Katoa 23. Chris Smith
Analysis: Despite playing Round 17, the Bulldogs don’t interest me at all. Luke Thompson is worth a thought though at $559k with a breakeven of 65.
He’s averaging 70PPG in 59MPG with a strong 57BPG.
Playing in an ordinary outfit though with a very limited ceiling I’m just not that interested, but his numbers are very hard to knock having not scored below 55 this season. There’s a bit of Aiden Tolman 2.0 about his SuperCoach output.
The fact he’s available as a dual FRF-2RF is also very handy.
Aaron Schoupp is bottom dollar at $173.4k with a breakeven of -24, but outside backs at the Dogs aren’t worth targeting.
Dragons: 1. Matt Dufty 2. Cody Ramsey 3. Brayden Wiliame 4. Gerard Beale 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Corey Norman 7. Ben Hunt 8. Blake Lawrie 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Josh Kerr 12. Jack Bird 13. Jackson Ford
Bench: 14. Talatau Amone 15. Poasa Faamausili 16. Daniel Alvaro 17. Jack de Belin
Reserves: 18. Adam Clune 19. Kaide Ellis 20. Tariq Sims 21. Billy Burns
Analysis: The Dragons were unexciting before the bye and are even less so after it.
Matt Dufty is obviously the one big player to come out of the game following a blistering performance. He scored 156 points to take his season average to 77PPG and his price tag to $644k.
With games against the Dogs, Raiders, Warriors, Sea Eagles and Titans coming up, he’s worth serious thought, but I don’t rate the Dragons enough to consider buying.
Ben Hunt and Jack Bird both went well in the bye week and are indefinite holds.
SUPERCOACH TERMINOLOGY KEY
MPG = Minutes per game
PPG = Points per game
PPM= Points per minute
BPG = Base per game (point accrued in tackles + runs + missed tackles)
POD = Point of difference
3RA = Three round average
5RA = Five round average
BREAKEVEN (B/E) = The score a player must record to earn a price rise.