Knights: 1. Tex Hoy 2. Starford To’a 3. Enari Tuala 4. Bradman Best 5. Brayden Musgrove 6. Kurt Mann 7. Phoenix Crossland 8. David Klemmer 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Mitchell Barnett
Bench: 14. Connor Watson 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Sauaso Sue 17. Brodie Jones
Reserves: 18. Simi Sasagi 19. Josh King 20. Gehamat Shibasaki 21. Blake Green
Analysis: Bradman Best won’t be helped by Kalyn Ponga’s absence.
He’s disappointed with a 5RA of just 46.3PPG. His base is still amazing at 36BPG which is among the elite of the CTWs, he’s just not getting the attacking stats with no tries or try-assists since Round 2!
He’s dirt cheap at $442k with a breakeven of 77 and has a nice match up this week, but the Knights inconsistent form and KP’s absence aren’t doing him any favours.
At this stage, I’ll be looking to get him in at a bargain price come Round 13 as a valuable extra bye round number.
Mitch Barnett has played just 47 and 44 minutes the past two weeks, what’s doing? Ownership bias aside, he’s 100 mile-an-hour and adds plenty of attacking upside to the side. Of that 47, he had a huge 49 in base.
I’d be surprised if his minutes don’t rise to 60+ in coming weeks, but who really knows?
While getting that time, he’s no longer a certain play in your 17 despite another friendly match up.
I’m holding until Round 13 where he should play 80 in Tyson Frizell’s absence. Ideally he’ll get minutes back and is probably a keeper, otherwise he’ll be a Round 14 sell. He possibly takes over goal-kicking from Texy Hoy too.
Connor Watson again played just 51 minutes which was actually up on the fortnight prior. He scored 70 points, and if you’ve held this long you may as well just stick with him until Round 13 as an extra number.
Tigers: 1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Adam Doueihi 4. Joey Leilua 5. Tommy Talau 6. Moses Mbye 7. Luke Brooks 8. James Tamou 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Alex Twal 11. Luke Garner 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Joe Ofahengaue
Bench: 14. Jock Madden 15. Shawn Blore 16. Alex Seyfarth 17. Thomas Mikaele
Reserves: 18. Michael Chee-Kam 19. James Roberts 20. Stefano Utoikamanu 21. Tom Amone
Analysis: David Nofoaluma is proving a little hard to catch this season. His base of 29BPG is down on last year, scoring 54 points which included a try.
He’s $542k with a breakeven of 31 and remains a strong buy anytime between now and Round 13 at a discount.
Adam Doueihi’s move to right centre should be excellent for him. It’ll immediately become their strike edge in attack, and he’s got the passing game and awareness to put Nofa away.
I like this a lot for Nofa and will probably get him in this week purely as a result of Doueihi’s move.
Nofa is owned by 26% of the top 100 ranked teams, and 19% of the top 10,000, so he’s around the POD range. We know he can go big with four tons last year and an 76PPG average, so he looks a great trade.
Speaking of, Doueihi owners were quiet when he stayed at centre come game day, fortunately he was the opposite to quiet, amassing another ton in the outside backs.
Frustrating for anyone who held off buying due to his positional switch.
I still much prefer him at 5/8 and his scores are likely to be impacted negatively going forward, but early signs are certainly reassuring making it pretty hard to knock buying him despite the shift.
He’s very much the Zac Lomax of 2020 as a hard working, goal-kicking centre.
The Tigers big win is bad news for owners of the dumped Jake Simpkin who are crossing their fingers he finds himself back in the top grade for Round 13.
With games against the Warriors and Dragons to come the Tigers present some extra interest at the moment, however Nofa, Doueihi and to a lesser degree Luciano Leilua are the only real relevant players.
Shawn Blore played 23 minutes in his first game of the season in the top grade.
Benching Daine Laurie is a strong anti-POD option every week due to his masses of owners.
Note that the Tigers do play the Panthers, Eels, Storm and Rabbitohs followed by the bye from Round 13 onwards, so most players will be sells after that week.
The likes of Nofa/Doueihi may be holds, but will become big sit candidates for anyone who does hold through that period.
Dragons: 1. Cody Ramsey 2. Max Feagai 3. Jack Bird 4. Billy Burns 5. Jordan Pereira 6. Corey Norman 7. Ben Hunt 8. Blake Lawrie 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Josh Kerr 12. Jackson Ford 13. Poasa Faamausili
Titans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Anthony Don 3. Brian Kelly 4. Esan Marsters 5. Phillip Sami 6. Tanah Boyd 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Jarrod Wallace 9. Mitch Rein 10. Moeaki Fotuaika 11. Kevin Proctor 12. Beau Fermor 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
Bench: 14. Erin Clark 15. Sam Stone 16. Jaimin Jolliffe 17. Sam McIntyre
Reserves: 18. Jai Whitbread 19. Jayden Campbell 20. Toby Sexton 21. Ash Taylor
Analysis: I wouldn’t read too much into the Titans SuperCoach performances against a far superior SC killing outfit in Penrith.
Beau Fermor was the only played to score over 56 points.
Brian Kelly showed some good signs in attack for 47 points and remains a close watch ahead of Round 13 at just $439k.
Despite nice attacking signs this season, nobody really interests me outside of Kelly, Peachey and Tino (post Origin). Even then, I’ll still likely avoid all.
If you held David Fifita on the weekend I’d hold onto him long-term. The time to sell was last week.
Continuing on with the sin-bin/send-off enforced negative scoring, a special mention to Herman Ese’ese for his -11. A tough one to stomach for his surprisingly large 1,145 owners…
Bulldogs: 1. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 2. Nick Cotric 3. Will Hopoate 4. Aaron Schoupp 5. Nick Meaney 6. Brandon Wakeham 7. Jake Averillo 8. Ava Seumanufagai 9. Sione Katoa 10. Luke Thompson 11. Matt Doorey 12. Chris Smith 13. Renouf Atoni
Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Josh Morris 4. Joseph Manu 5. Matt Ikuvalu 6. Lachlan Lam 7. Sam Walker 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Ben Marschke 10. Issac Liu 11. Angus Crichton 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Victor Radley
Bench: 14. Adam Keighran 15. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 16. Nat Butcher 17. Siosiua Taukeiaho
Analysis: Teddy repaid patient owners, and anyone with half a brain shouldn’t be surprised to see him belt out 131 points against the Cowboys.
At $526k with a breakeven of 7 he’s a great option this week, but it’ll be hard to find the right fullback to trade him out for. A top dollar Clint Gutherson would be a viable option, but surely you hold for Round 13?
Teddy is a huge captaincy option against the Broncos in Sydney this week.
Daniel Tupou tonned up and now has a season average of 63PPG and remains affordable at $575k. Unfortunately he’s unavailable for Round 13, and there’s the chance of an Origin call up on top of that.
Sam Walker is a definite hold for this week at least. He could go huge against the Broncos and should be a play in every 17.
If he goes low, we can consider a potential trade to Jahrome Hughes next week.
Anyone who sold Angus Crichton will be filthy after he scored a double and 119 points. At $585k he’s very cheap for any non-owners as he’s a season-long keeper. But with Origin looming he’s not a straight forward trade.
Siosiua Taukeiaho played just 35 minutes for 24 points against the Cowboys. He’s averaging just 57PPG and has lost the goal-kicking duties to Sam Walker.
At $445k he’s lost any value he had, so is it worth the trade? Surely he returns to some larger minutes soon, but he’s been fairly underwhelming.
As the Roosters continue to see troops return from injury, we’ll see there SuperCoach capabilities return to what we’ve seen in the past.
Raiders: 1. Caleb Aekins 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Sebastian Kris 4. Curtis Scott 5. Semi Valemei 6. Sam Williams 7. George Williams 8. Dunamis Lui 9. Tom Starling 10. Emre Guler 11. Corey Harawira-Naera 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Hudson Young
Bench: 14. Brad Schneider 15. Ryan Sutton 16. Corey Horsburgh 17. Ryan James
Reserves: 18. Matt Timoko 19. Sia Soliola 20. Siliva Havili 21. Harry Rushton
Analysis: All hopes of a Bailey Simonsson price surge were dashed with just 16 points against the Bulldogs.
He has a breakeven of 3 which will skyrocket if he goes low against Melbourne, very likely.
At which point he’ll be a sell to someone with Round 13 coverage.
Corey Harawira-Naera delivered for those who jumped on with 71 points thanks to a try, 33 tackles and 13 runs.
His 50 in base on the weekend was great to see for owners rightly concerned about his workrate.
He’s played 80 minutes in all four of his games this season and now has a breakeven of 23.
Whether or not he’s a buy I’m still unsure. He won’t play Round 13 and job security is always a huge threat in this Raiders pack. Two tough games await against the Storm and Roosters, so you could argue he’s only a borderline play in 17s anyway.
On the flip side, his upside is huge, particularly if the Raiders can hit some form. Due to the run ahead, I think the ship has sailed, but I can see why you’d be tempted.
If he holds his 80 minute role through till Round 17 he’ll be a perfect 17th/18th man at worst.
Ryan James to someone like Tom Flegler wouldn’t be the worst trade. But it may be worth sussing his minutes with Josh Papalii missing the next three weeks.
Sam Williams comes in for his first start of the season for the suspended Jack Wighton, on ya son! Timely opposition…
Storm: 1. Nicho Hynes 2. George Jennings 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Chris Lewis 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Brandon Smith 10. Christian Welch 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Dale Finucane
Bench: 14. Aaron Pene 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Tom Eisenhuth 17. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
Reserves: 18. Aaron Booth 19. Cooper Johns 20. Trent Loiero 21. Dean Ieremia
Analysis: Nicho Hynes, my word! He went from being a likely benching, to starting 5/8, then back to fullback all within about 20 minutes!
He went bonkers with 182 points in an unbelievable effort for those who jumped on. The injury crisis in Melbourne’s spine now means he’ll likely start through till Round 13 which Melbourne play, well played to fortunate owners…
With dual CTW-FLB positioning he remains a strong buy despite being $582k. His negative -65 breakeven means he’ll make big money and can likely be sold in Round 14 for huge profit with massive scoring potential in the meantime.
Should injuries strike, he may find himself as a regular in the starting side which would make him a keeper.
Commiserations to those who held Ryan Papenhuyzen, that’s SuperCoach at its absolute cruellest.
With a ridiculous breakeven of 185 and a 23 in his rolling average he’s probably a sell. Especially now there’s some word he may miss Round 12 too.
The only temptation though is that the Storm play the Broncos next week which he may be right for, then there’s a decent chance he misses Origin selection and plays Round 13. Plenty to ponder…
Analysis: You could nearly write an essay on the SuperCoach credentials of Penrith’s outfit every week.
Particularly as they have Round 13 availability.
Nathan Cleary obliterated the SuperCoach record with 225 points against the Titans. It was 246 prior to down dates.
Nothing really to be added on the star halfback as everyone already owns.
It’s been interesting to see Penrith shift their attack from predominantly a left-side focused team to right side.
In saying that, I don’t think the focus has changed as much as it appears, they’re just having greater success down the right edge due to opposition over the past two weeks.
It’s been much to the benefit of Charlie Staines who has five tries in the past two weeks.
He’s now a tick under $400k with a breakeven of -43. For those who held, he’s a vital extra number for Round 13 before being sold for onwards of $500k! Patience has paid off on that one.
However, he’s capable of getting a single digit score in that all-important bye round, so let’s not go the early crow on him.
The right side success has been at the demise of the left edge.
Incredibly, Jarome Luai (23) and Brian To’o (34) failed to get in on the action.
Luai is getting far cheaper at just $570k with a breakeven of 102. If he misses Origin selection, he’ll be a must-have come Round 13, but I’ll be waiting as I think he probably gets the call up to Freddy’s Blues.
James Fisher-Harris has come to life, finally jagging some elusive attacking stats.
He’s scored the past two rounds for scores of 98 and 83. He’s only playing 51MPG though which is a worry, including just 48 and 35 the past fortnight.
At $558k with a breakeven of 20 he’s a decent option ahead of Round 13.
Kurt Capewell’s return pushes Liam Martin back to the bench.
Reserves: 18. Ray Stone 19. Keegan Hipgrave 20. Haze Dunster 21. Jordan Rankin
Analysis: King Gutho has regressed over the past fortnight with scores of just 58 and 47.
He’s $763k with a breakeven of 171, so he could start to haemorrhage cash. Normally I’d say trading was a serious option, but with decent enough games against the Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs then Knights in Round 13 he could continue to score well.
You’d have to think he’s unlikely for an Origin call-up, so cop the price drop and lock in a gun fullback for that vital Round 13.
Disregarding his injury impacted 7 in Round 3, Mitch Moses is averaging 63PPG.
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He’s in some very fine form at the moment and is a huge play at miniscule ownership.
Personally I’d go Hughes over him IF I was to trade Sam Walker, but the temptation may be there for some.
As predicted, Dylan Brown’s absence proved a huge blow to Blake Ferguson’s output. He’s no longer a lock in 17s whilst Brown is out.
I’ll be holding through till Round 13 regardless before moving on.
I broke David Fifita a fortnight ago by bringing him in, and I’ve done the same to Isaiah Papali’i who had his lowest score of the year this week, apologies all.
With the pack back on deck he played just 59 minutes, which isn’t bad, but not ideal.
With a breakeven of 131 he should cheapen up for non-owners ahead of Round 13.
Ryan Matterson scored 74 points thanks to a try, 33 tackles and 15 runs. He’s still very affordable at $585k with a breakeven of 53.
While rightly so he’ll be very popular this week, I’m still scared by the head knock concerns and will be waiting until Round 13 to bring him in, even at the fairly inevitable higher price.
Reed Mahoney is getting very cheap at $534k with a breakeven of 115. He’s right on my radar for Jake Simpkin in coming weeks, probably next.
That head knock from last week followed by a poor score of 45 will see him bottom out just in time for the bye week.
Round 9 aside where he had four, Junior Paulo seems to have put his offload away with just two offloads in his past five games. Free the arm son!