Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 10?

We take a deep dive into the projected output of fringe 17 players to help you decide who to sit and start in your weekly team.

Strategy Playbook

Just when you think we’re building our squads nicely, SuperCoach throws us a bunch of spanners. Of course!

This makes start/sit all the more complex this week. I’ve ranked my plays for reserves and CTW below.

First off, thanks to ‘3 Wise Draftmen’[i], nrlsupercoachstats.com[ii] and Quantium[iii] for their amazing stats, which I’ve referenced for this analysis.

Sign up to SC Playbook for hundreds of extra premium articles across the NRL season, including access to our subscriber special question and answer podcast.

Embed from Getty Images

The 3 Wise Draftsmen provide weekly position scoring stats across the season, as well as for the last three rounds and five rounds. The nrlsupercoachstats.com website provides comprehensive stats in almost any SuperCoach category you can imagine.

The Quantium stat analysis looks at player ownership, specific to segments of SuperCoach rankings. All of these are weekly must-reads in my opinion.

So now onto the decisions. I’ve chosen players whose ownership is around 10% or higher in the top 20k, based on Quantium’s analysis. I’ve then ranked players who I consider as being borderline plays in SuperCoach 17’s this round. I’ve then taken a look at each player’s floor, based on the following statistics from nrlsupercoachstats.com:

DescriptionStatistics
“Lower Floor”Base (hit-ups & tackles) – negatives (errors etc.)
“Mid Floor”Base (as above) + power (tackle breaks & offloads) – negatives
“Upper Floor”Base (as above) + power (as above) + kicking (goals, forced dropouts, 40-20s) – negatives

Reserves

I’ve got Schuster at the top of this list, based on a favourable matchup against the Broncos.

He’s followed by Welch and Curran, due to their high floors. Curran’s base was a little down last week. However, I believe that was because of the number of tries scored during Sea Eagles vs Warriors match, resulting in less time in play.

If you have Peachey, I think he’s a solid play in 17’s this week as either a reserve or CTW. I’m speculating that he’ll have a strong match vs his former club (he’s averaged 63 against them in two gamesii). Paulo, Taukeiaho, Lodge and Fa’asuamaleaui follow him in my rankings as solid plays. So far, Taukeiaho has still been getting decent minutes off the bench.

GET ONBOARD WITH TOPSPORT! Back your knowledge, and follow our NRL market previews throughout the season using their exclusive markets. Use the code SCPLAYBOOK when signing up. Check them out here ahead of the upcoming round of NRL.

Next, I have Liddle, who should see decent minutes if the Tigers team make-up stays the same. I then have Watson, whose minutes are a concern, but the matchup looks favourable. This is the main reason I have him above Riki and Gamble.

Much of this week’s start/sit dilemmas will revolve around Sam Walker, who is carrying injury niggles, but has a favourable matchup vs the Cowboys. Generally, if you can cover him with a player from a later matchup (Eels, Warriors, Storm, Dragons, Titans or Panthers), then I would do that. Otherwise, I would avoid him as a play this week due to the risk of a late out.

Rankings:

RankPlayer
1Schuster
2Welch
3Curran
4Peachey
5Paulo
6Taukeiaho
7Lodge*
8Fa’asuamaleaui
9Liddle
10Watson
11Riki**
12Gamble
13S Walker

Player Floors & Averages:

PlayerLower FloorMid FloorUpper FloorSeason Ave
Schuster38464764
Welch46606065
Curran44494964
Peachey35414464
Paulo41515160
Taukeiaho46505561
Lodge*40525251
Fa’asuamaleaui45505053
Liddle38414156
Watson41474861
Riki**42474849
Gamble31333658
S Walker14202786

*Excludes injured game

**Starting games

Player Matchups:

PlayerVsPositionRds 1 – 8 opp.
Points allowed
Rd 9 opp.
Points allowed
SchusterBroncosLeft 2RF6869
WelchDragonsProp***4854
CurranEelsLeft 2RF5039
PeacheyPanthersLock5459
PauloWarriorsProp***6241
TaukeiahoCowboysProp***5773
Lodge*Sea EaglesProp***5540
Fa’asuamaleauiPanthersProp***4849
LiddleKnightsHooker4776
WatsonTigersLock7448
Riki**Sea EaglesLeft 2RF5057
GambleSea EaglesRight Half5095
S WalkerCowboysRight Half8855

***Props = ave. of two starting

CTW

If you own Nofoaluma, you’re probably playing him every week given his solid floor. His matchup also looks decent this week.

Nicho Hynes also looks an excellent play, provided he starts. You may want to have cover ready just in case he drops out for Ryan Papenhuyzen though.

Sivo has a nice matchup this week, as do Isaako and Ferguson. Consequently, I have them above Peachey. Laurie follows due to a slightly lower floor.

Embed from Getty Images

Simonsson looked much better on the left-wing last week. Provided he stays there, I have him above Brian Kelly for this round, due to a tough matchup for the Titans vs Panthers.

Staines has been very unpredictable, but could provide valuable cover for any late outs, due to playing in the last game of the round.

Saab’s matchup isn’t the worst, but his floor is such that I’d still be inclined to avoid playing him. Max Feagai has shown a decent floor in his two matchups, but I’d also avoid playing him against the Storm.

Rankings:

RankPlayer
1Nofoaluma
2Hynes*
3Sivo
4Isaako
5Ferguson
6Peachey
7Laurie
8Simonsson**
9Kelly
10Staines
11Saab
12Max Feagai

Player Floors & Averages:

PlayerLower FloorMid FloorUpper FloorSeason Ave
Nofoaluma27434463
Hynes*23333379
Sivo21323262
Isaako20314069
Ferguson29404164
Peachey35414464
Laurie25363759
Simonsson**25313138
Kelly26353553
Staines16212242
Saab14171738
Max Feagai26343441

*Starting games

**Injured game excluded

Player Matchups:

PlayerVsPositionRds 1 – 8 opp.
Points allowed
Rd 9 opp.
Points allowed
NofoalumaKnightsR Wing5465
Hynes*DragonsFLB7239
SivoWarriorsL Wing7465
IsaakoSea EaglesFLB6650
FergusonWarriorsR Wing5594
PeacheyPanthersLock5459
LaurieKnightsFLB5849
Simonsson**BulldogsL Wing5189
KellyPanthersL Centre3919
StainesTitansR Wing43113
SaabBroncosR Wing4766
Max FeagaiStormR Wing3720

All the best with your selections. Enjoy Magic Round!

End notes


[i] https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen

[ii] https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com

[iii] https://scplaybook.com.au/2021/04/28/quantium-stat-analysis-rd-8-vital-numbers-to-beat-the-best/

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *