Squad Breakdown: Team insights, Round 7

2020 NRL SuperCoach runner-up Tim Williams analyses all the key SuperCoach ins and outs following the release of Round 7 teams.

Squad Breakdown

I find it incredible how quickly SuperCoach can turn on its head.

Not long ago, James Tedesco was a set-and-forget captain for the entire season, a few weeks later he’s one of the most traded out players in the game.

Latrell Mitchell may miss a while due to suspension, while Tom Trbojevic and Kalyn Ponga have returned from injury with tons. Furthermore, Ryan Papenhuyzen will miss the ANZAC Day clash due to injury.

It’s why the game also remains extremely exciting, and it’s keeping sides relatively unique this season.

The Cooma Stallions bounced back in Round 6 with 1,253 points to rise back up to a more respectable 4,548th overall.

My cheapie plays in recent weeks of Teig Wilton and Ben Condon have delivered, so I’m fairly confident going forward that my side is well placed, we’ll wait and see!

Let’s take a look at the Round 7 teams.

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Thursday, 7.50pm, BlueBet Stadium, Penrith

Panthers: 1. Stephen Crichton 2. Charlie Staines 3. Paul Momirovski 4. Matt Burton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Isaah Yeo

Bench: 14. Tyrone May 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Matthew Eisenhuth 17. Liam Martin

Reserves: 18. Scott Sorensen 19. Robert Jennings 20. Api Koroisau 21. Dylan Edwards

Analysis: Nathan Cleary continues to sizzle with a season average of 99PPG. He looms as a sneaky straight captain again this week.

Halves partner Jarome Luai remains an excellent purchase.

Charlie Staines scores well against gun sides and is terrible against poor sides. With a breakeven of 26 I’ll likely give him one more week, then sell next round if he goes low again.

Brian To’o managed 64 points without a try or try-assist. He had 10 tacklebreaks and 24 runs, animal! Get him in your team. 

Issues under the high ball also have question marks over a potential Origin call up (along with Tommy Turbo’s starring return), so hopefully he’s an extra number for Round 13 if he misses out.

Stephen Crichton is proving frustrating for owners, incredibly he’s just $380k and has a breakeven of 57. I wouldn’t be selling as there’s no value in the trade, while Penrith’s upcoming draw is quite friendly. His highest score all season is just 51 points!

Kurt Capewell got himself off the chopping bloke for the time being with 82 points in 80 minutes, he’ll likely be a sell before Origin comes calling, but there’s no rush at all.

Dylan Edwards and Api Koroisau have been named on the extended bench, that’s a concern for Matt Burton owners.

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Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Starford To’a 3. Enari Tuala 4. Bradman Best 5. Brayden Musgrove 6. Kurt Mann 7. Blake Green 8. David Klemmer 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Mitchell Barnett 13. Connor Watson

Bench: 14. Sauaso Sue 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Josh King 17. Brodie Jones

Reserves: 18. Simi Sasagi 19. Pasami Saulo 20. Gehamat Shibasaki 21. Phoenix Crossland

Analysis:  Kalyn Ponga, wow! 163 points in his second game back from injury. He looked sensational and is an enormous POD at just 1% ownership.

I’ll be avoiding, as the Knights face the Panthers, Roosters and Raiders in the next three weeks, he’ll then be unavailable at times over Origin.

Brodie Jones was sensational, coming into the centres and scoring 78 points in 74 minutes, what a goer he is!

He now has a breakeven of -19, but he looks a trap as game time will be extremely hard to come by with this forward pack.

Jayden Brailey is a hold through till Round 13 for me. 57 was comfortably his lowest score of the year, and he’s looking sharp out of dummy half. He’ll be a crucial extra number in Round 13.

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Connor Watson would make way for me first, although he’s potentially a hold. It’s hard with the likes of Jake Simpkin and Harry Grant now adding to the key buys in the hooking position.

It’s tough though as he could be anything if he plays 80 at lock at any stage.

Bradman Best will be a huge POD after the tough draw ends in three weeks.

Mitch Barnett made all those that sold pay big time with his second ton of the year. 

As tipped, he looked super dangerous with Kalyn Ponga back excelling on that left edge. He’s definitely a hold through till Round 13 for me where he will also kick goals in Ponga’s absence.

Brayden Musgrove looms as a bottom dollar cheapie with early bye coverage, but wait a week so we can get a better idea of his job security.

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Friday, 6pm, Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast

Titans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Anthony Don 3. Brian Kelly 4. Patrick Herbert 5. Corey Thompson 6. Ash Taylor 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Jarrod Wallace 9. Mitch Rein 10. Moeaki Fotuaika 11. Kevin Proctor 12. David Fifita 13. Tyrone Peachey

Bench: 14. Erin Clark 15. Jaimin Jolliffe 16. Sam Lisone 17. Sam McIntyre

Reserves: 18. Beau Fermor 19. Herman Ese’ese 20. Jonas Pearson 21. Phillip Sami

Analysis: David Fifita finally had a down week, kind of… The Titans didn’t score a point, yet he still smashed out 78 points thanks to 17 runs and 7 tacklebreaks.

He has a breakeven of 58 which will rise significantly next week when his 147 drops out, unless he goes big again this week which is obviously a strong possibility.

Tino Fa’asuamaleaui has been very frustrating to owners. He now has two weeks out due to suspension and looks like a sell with a breakeven of 110. Unfortunately there aren’t many good replacements in the front-row, Payne Haas is the obvious one though at a discount on his starting price.

Tyrone Peachey scored just 39 points in 56 minutes and doesn’t excite me too much. He’s a hold for the time being for owners, and the minutes are encouraging, but I wouldn’t be buying at this stage.

Corey Thompson scored 52 points, mostly in base with six tacklebusts. As defenders attract to David Fifita more and more I can see the Titans playing out the back into plenty of space, with Brian Kelly and Thompson hopefully the benefactors. 

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Rabbitohs: 1. Alex Johnston 2. Dane Gagai 3. Steven Marsters 4. Campbell Graham 5. Jaxson Paulo 6. Cody Walker 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Thomas Burgess 9. Damien Cook 10. Tevita Tatola 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Cameron Murray

Bench: 14. Benji Marshall 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Liam Knight 17. Jai Arrow

Reserves: 18. Jacob Host 19. Patrick Mago 20 Dean Hawkins 21. Hame Sele

Analysis: With Latrell Mitchell likely suspended (and not named regardless), Cody Walker becomes very exciting as he should return to that sweeping both sides roll where he dominated late last year.

It should give him far more try-assists that Latrell has been snaking. The Sea Eagles put 36 on the Titans, so the Bunnies could easily do similar. 

After this week, the Bunnies face the Raiders, Storm, Sharks, Panthers and Eels, so it’s a very tough run.

As a result, the likes of Dane Gagai, Campbell Graham and Alex Johnston become less appealing and will loom as sells as they don’t play Round 13.

Gagai is probably the exception with his terrific base on that lethal left edge.

Cam Murray FINALLY got that elusive attacking stat with his first try and linebreak of the year, thank god!

He tonned up in 62 minutes of game time and becomes an indefinite hold with a breakeven of 34. He had 37 tackles, 16 runs, four tacklebreaks and two offloads.

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Friday, 7.55pm, TIO Stadium, Darwin

Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Tom Opacic 4. Marata Niukore 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Nathan Brown

Bench: 14. Oregon Kaufusi 15. Will Penisini 16. Wiremu Greig 17. Bryce Cartwright

Reserves: 18. Haze Dunster 19. Jordan Rankin 20. Keegan Hipgrave 21. Ryan Matterson

Analysis: Blake Ferguson has two sub 50 scores in a row and is a potential sell in coming weeks with a breakeven of 101.

However, his base was again excellent against the Raiders with 21 runs.

Dylan Brown’s absence cruelled his try-scoring opportunities, but his return this week against a feeble Broncos defence is cause for excitement.  

He plays Round 13 and the Eels have a dream run before that time, so I’ll likely hold onto him.

Reed Mahoney continues to cause hooking headaches with his third ton of the season. With that early bye coverage he has to come into consideration.

Junior Paulo has absolutely hit the skids, recording back-to-back sub 40 scores in just 50 minutes of game time.

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He has a breakeven of 114 and would likely be a sell, but the lack of FRF options and suspension to Tino makes it hard.

If you can turn him into Payne Haas it’d make sense, I’ll just hold him for the time being.

Isaiah Papali’I continues to get it done for those lucky owners. He scored a double against the Raiders and now has a 3RA of 110 and a -7 breakeven.

What happens if and when Ryan Matterson finally returns? At $633k I hesitantly think it’s too much to pay for a bench forward, but he’s getting the job done each and every week and is looking sublime in the process, so it’s hard to knock anyone wanting to buy.

Worst case scenario you can always sell at over $700k if his minutes drop significantly on Matto’s return.

Matterson has been named on the extended bench.

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Broncos: 1. Jamayne Isaako 2. Xavier Coates 3. Herbie Farnworth 4. David Mead 5. Corey Oates 6. Brodie Croft 7. Tom Dearden 8. Matt Lodge 9. Jake Turpin 10. Payne Haas 11. Alex Glenn 12. Tevita Pangai Junior 13. Pat Carrigan

Bench: 14. Danny Levi 15. Thomas Flegler 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Jordan Riki

Reserves: 18. Rhys Kennedy 19. Tyson Gamble 20. John Asiata 21. Jesse Arthurs

Analysis: With a breakeven of 60 I’d be looking to move Jamayne Isaako onto the likes of To’o or Nofoaluma.

Matt Lodge only played 39 minutes but was very efficient in the process with 15 runs, three offloads and seven tacklebreaks.

At $336k he may be a cut-priced FRF option for Tino owners who could get you through till Round 13 which Brisbane play.

Payne Haas has dropped $30k and should hopefully drop more with breakeven of 97. Get ready to swoop when he bottoms out, but there’s no harm in going early on him this week. He’s averaged 63 in base the past two weeks, mammoth!

Tevita Pangai Jnr played 80 minutes on the edge which is very exciting, although he only scored 61 points with a try included.

With a breakeven of 89 he’s a close watch. As mentioned in previous weeks, he just somehow manages to fall out of SuperCoach relevance for absurd reasons so I’m hesitant to invest despite his upside when he gets game time.

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Saturday, 5.30pm, Netstrata Stadium, Sydney

Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Mawene Hiroti 3. Josh Dugan 4. Jesse Ramien 5. Connor Tracey 6. Matt Moylan 7. Chad Townsend 8. Braden Hamlin-Uele 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Aaron Woods 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Toby Rudolf

Bench: 14. Billy Magoulias 15. Shaun Johnson 16. Jack Williams 17. Siosifa Talakai

Reserves: 18. Braydon Trindall 19. Will Chambers 20. Franklin Pele 21. Jenson Taumoepeau

Analysis: Teig Wilton has made $123k in just two weeks and has a breakeven of 19. He’s churned out 48BPG and has been a reliable play in 17s each week. The ship has definitely sailed on him as a buy though.

Wade Graham has been left out of the squad following his concussion which is huge news for Wilton owners who should again see 80 minutes.

With a breakeven of 58 Matt Moylan has peaked and can be sold. Although if tempted to hold for one more week for the Dogs clash you could do so.

Chad Townsend has snuck under the radar with a 65PPG average, and a 3RA of 85PPG.

Shaun Johnson is back on the bench!!!

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Bulldogs: 1. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 2. Nick Cotric 3. Will Hopoate 4. Corey Allan 5. Tuipulotu Katoa 6. Jake Averillo 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Dylan Napa 9. Sione Katoa 10. Luke Thompson 11. Adam Elliott 12. Chris Smith 13. Corey Waddell

Bench: 14. Brad Deitz 15. Renouf Atoni 16. Ava Seumanufagai 17. Matt Doorey

Reserves: 19. Lachlan Lewis 21. Joe Stimson 22. Nick Meaney 23. Ofahiki Ogden

Analysis: Luke Thompson has been a bit of an eye catcher averaging 74PPG in his first two games of the season.

He belted out 57 in base on the weekend and has a breakeven of 17. Worth a look, but there’s not a lot of upside in him so I’m not overly interested.

With Jack Hetherington likely out for five weeks he may see some extra minutes though, he’s currently averaging 53MPG.

Jackson Topine played 44 minutes for 32 points and now has a breakeven of 21 having made just over $30k and missed the squad.

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Saturday, 7.35pm, QCB Stadium, Townsville

Cowboys: 1. Valentine Holmes 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Justin O’Neill 4. Connelly Lemuelu 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Scott Drinkwater 7. Ben Hampton 8. Coen Hess 9. Reece Robson 10. Jordan McLean 11. Shane Wright 12. Ben Condon 13. Lachlan Burr

Bench: 14. Jake Granville 15. Mitchell Dunn 16. Francis Molo 17. Corey Jensen

Reserves: 18. Esan Marsters 19. Peter Hola 20. Jake Clifford 21. Tom Gilbert

Analysis: Val Holmes smashed out 95 points against the Dogs and has a 5RA of 69. The Cowboys have an okay upcoming run, but I’m still concerned his attacking opportunities will be somewhat limited in a struggling side.

To be fair, they’ve put on plenty of points the past fortnight so there are serious signs of life.

Regardless, at $533k at 6% ownership he’s a serious POD option. With a breakeven of 50 and a tough clash with a Raiders outfit who will be looking to make up for a woeful performance last week the trade can perhaps wait a week?

Ben Condon played 71 minutes for 71 points which included a try. He made $73k this week and with a breakeven of -39 he looks set to make similar again.

He looks a great buy again this week, but job security is always going to be an issue. Jason Taumalolo’s injury setback should help him enormously though.

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Raiders: 1. Caleb Aekins 2. Sebastian Kris 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Curtis Scott 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. George Williams 8. Ryan James 9. Tom Starling 10. Emre Guler 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Ryan Sutton

Bench: 14. Siliva Havili 15. Corey Harawira-Naera 16. Corey Horsburgh 17. Josh Papalii

Reserves: 18. Matt Timoko 19. Sia Soliola 20. Matt Frawley 21. Joe Tapine

Analysis: Plenty of changes at the Raiders with Ricky Stuart sharpening the axe to a few of his regular team following the poor performance against the Eels.

With change comes SuperCoach opportunity, but I’d definitely be waiting a week or two as it could well be brief movement.

Whether it’s injury enforced or form based isn’t known as of yet.

There’s not a lot of SuperCoach relevance at the Raiders anyway so it’s a close watch and wait over the next few weeks.

Bailey Simonsson hasn’t been named, probably due to his failed HIA.

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Sunday, 1.45pm, Bankwest Stadium, Sydney

Tigers: 1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. James Roberts 4. Michael Chee Kam 5. Tommy Talau 6. Adam Doueihi 7. Luke Brooks 8. James Tamou 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Stefano Utoikamanu 11. Joe Ofahengaue 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Alex Twal

Bench: 14. Moses Mbye 15. Luke Garner 16. Alex Seyfarth 17. Zane Musgrove

Reserves: 18. Jacob Liddle 19. Thomas Mikaele 20. Tom Amone 21. Joey Leilua

Analysis: Daine Laurie is ticking along nicely with three tries in a row. He’s probably a hold until Round 13 which the Tigers play. He’s a fairly safe option in the CTW each week too. With a very friendly draw coming up against the Sea Eagles, Dragons, Titans, Knights, Warriors and Dragons I’ll likely hold.

For the same reason, a bottomed out David Nofoaluma looks close to a must for the Round 13 coverage.

He’s dropped $110k on his starting price and is ripe for picking either this week or next with a breakeven of 58.

His 30BPG is down on last year, but remains extremely solid. It should increase if the Tigers continue to put on better performances such as the one on the weekend.

He’ll get stacks more runs in which lead into his brilliant tacklebreaking and offloading ability.

Jake Simpkin scored 56 on debut with a massive 58 in base. He’ll be a huge option either this week or next and should free up a stack of cash to spend elsewhere.

Even more exciting is the fact he played the full 82 minutes against the Rabbitohs. He scored stacks of tries in NSW Cup this year in a show of his attacking upside.

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Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Brad Parker 4. Morgan Harper 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Kieran Foran 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Martin Taupau 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Josh Schuster 13. Jake Trbojevic

Bench: 14. Cade Cust 15. Josh Aloiai 16. Sean Keppie 17. Toafofoa Sipley

Reserves: 18. Zac Saddler 19. Tevita Funa 20. Christian Tuipulotu 21. Ben Trbojevic

Analysis: Tommy Turbo in full flight, what a sight for sore eyes! 116 points on return from injury was outstanding, and it changed the entire dynamic of the Manly side too.

Manly have a fairly nice upcoming run of games, although they don’t play Round 13.

I’m not going near Tommy Turbo just yet with his injury history, I don’t have it in me and I’m happy to sit on a Papy/Teddy combo at fullback for the time being.

Jason Saab scored a double and still only managed 44 points.

We knew all along Tommy Turbo was key to unlocking him, so hopefully it keeps up and he can make us some money with a breakeven of -14.

Josh Schuster is going to be mighty hard to sell with his form. He’s averaging 68PPG with 44BPG and has a breakeven of -8.

He’ll be a very easy trade to a gun 5/8 in no time at all, that’s if he even is a trade…

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Sunday, 4.05pm, SCG, Sydney

Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Josh Morris 4. Joseph Manu 5. Brett Morris 6. Drew Hutchinson 7. Sam Walker 8. Isaac Liu 9. Sam Verrills 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Angus Crichton 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Victor Radley

Bench: 14. Ben Marschke 15. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 16. Nat Butcher 17. Lindsay Collins

Reserves: 18. Fletcher Baker 19. Matt Ikuvalu 20. Egan Butcher 21. Tuku Hau Tapuha

Analysis: With a breakeven of 155, some are still looking at making the move of James Tedesco to the likes of Turbo or KP.

I get it, but I won’t be joining. While he’ll likely lose more money, I feel like the time to pull the trigger has narrowly passed. If you’re under the impression he’ll be outscored by KP/Turbo than by all means go for it.

However, the Roosters have a pretty nice upcoming run of games against the Dragons, Knights, Eels, Cowboys and Broncos. Tough one, but I’ll stick strong. Congrats to those who made the move in previous weeks.

Incredibly Daniel Tupou is down to $485k with a breakeven of 82, despite still having 32BPG this season. He’s scored just one try! I’m eyeing him off big time once he fully bottoms out, hopefully with the Roosters showing a little more.

Sam Walker scored just 21 against the Storm which wasn’t a surprise. He still has a -12 breakeven, and looks the goods, so I still think he’s a buy for anyone who held off.

Sitili Tupouniua is just $340k with a breakeven of 40, I’m seriously tempted, although a lack of Round 13 buy coverage doesn’t help. In his four 80 minute games this season he’s averaging 64PPG, although it should be noted he benefitted with two tries early on with a stronger Roosters side.

I rate his attacking upside immensely, so the stats can continue.

Taukeiaho has been named despite an injury concern. If he doesn’t take the field, you’d think Sam Walker takes the kicking duties, unless they give Teddy another go, probably not wise.

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Dragons: 1. Matthew Dufty 2. Cody Ramsey 3. Jack Bird 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Corey Norman 7. Adam Clune 8. Blake Lawrie 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Josh Kerr 12. Tariq Sims 13. Tyrell Fuimaono

Bench: 14. Kaide Ellis 15. Josh McGuire 16. Daniel Alvaro 17. Brayden Wiliame

Reserves: 18. Billy Burns 19. Poasa Faamausili 20. Jordan Pereira 21. Ben Hunt

Analysis: The Dragons play Round 13 and have a nice draw leading up to that point, although this week will be very tough against the Roosters on ANZAC Day.

Zac Lomax has almost bottomed out at $542k with a breakeven of 72. He looks like a prime pick up next week.

There’s not a lot of note elsewhere at the Red V despite a strong start to the year. Ben Hunt has been named on the extended bench.

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Sunday, 6.15pm, AAMI Park, Melbourne

Storm: 1. Nicho Hynes 2. George Jennings 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Brandon Smith 10. Christian Welch 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Nelson Asofa-Solomona

Bench: 14. Harry Grant 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Tom Eisenhuth 17. Dale Finucane

Reserves: 18. Dean Ieremia 19. Ryley Jacks 20. Trent Loiero 21. Aaron Pene

Analysis: No Papenhuyzen! Repeat, no Papenhuyzen!!

Nicho Hynes takes his place at fullback due to injury, huge.

Cam Munster continues to tick along solidly without going big, frustrating for owners, but hardly a concern. I’m backing him to go big without Papy, and he should kick goals.

Harry Grant, my word! 98 points in just 47 minutes against the Roosters of all teams!!

He is one of the best PODs of all time at 3% ownership which may not change too significantly due to the emergence of Jake Simpkin at bottom dollar at hooker, along with the likes of Jayden Brailey and Reed Mahoney who provide Round 13 coverage.

It looms as a massive play to go early on him, but at whose expense?

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Warriors: 1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 2. David Fusitu’a 3. Marcelo Montoya 4. Jack Murchie 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Sean O’Sullivan 8. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 9. Wayde Egan 10. Kane Evans 11. Josh Curran 12. Ben Murdoch-Masila 13. Tohu Harris

Bench: 14. Jazz Tevaga 15. Bunty Afoa 16. Leeson Ah Mau 17. Bayley Sironen

Reserves: 18. Rocco Berry 20. Tom Ale 21. Reece Walsh 22. Taniela Otukolo

Analysis: Roger Tuivasa-Sheck recorded his second ton of the season and has been completely under the SuperCoach radar in a stacked fullback position with an 82PPG average.

Kodi Nikorima has two tons, and also four scores under 38, tough to catch!

Tohu Harris scored a try against the Dragons for a season high 96 points. He has a low score of 66 and remains a great buy and is owned by just 12% of teams.

Josh Curran played the full 80 minutes on the edge in his first game of the season, scoring 77 points with a mental 68 in base!

At just $203k he’ll be a must-have next week, but you’d want to wait and see to make sure he keeps that spot with big minutes.

Jazz Tevaga regressed slightly in minutes to 49 for 54 points.

Injuries haven’t been kind to the Warriors who will be forced to start back-rower Jack Murchie at centre.

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MPG = Minutes per game

PPG = Points per game

PPM= Points per minute

BPG = Base per game (point accrued in tackles + runs + missed tackles)

POD = Point of difference

3RA = Three round average

5RA = Five round average

BREAKEVEN (B/E) = The score a player must record to earn a price rise.

*Please note all our stats are taken from the geniuses at nrlsupercoachstats.com

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