While certainly not ideal, I’m not too concerned as I’ve taken a long-term approach to my side, rather than a short-term approach.
By this, I mean I’ve got almost a full squad of active players, I’ve chased cash cows so my squad value is healthy, and I didn’t panic trade the likes of Papy, Cleary, Cody, A.Crichton when they missed one game.
I also managed to save a trade last week which is encouraging.
Hopefully this approach pays off, but only time will tell.
SC Playbook contributor and 2019 champion Dez Creek has taken the complete opposite approach, focusing on points in the short-term with a lesser view to the long game, we’ll discuss these approaches in depth on tonight’s podcast.
Analysis: As per last week, with games against the Panthers and Eels coming up I don’t think Brisbane’s attacking players are worth a shout at all.
Tesi Niu has been dropped, despite again producing serious base stats of 37, he is an obvious sell, probably to Brian To’o for non-owners. Niu did a nice job making $113k for owners, but with a breakeven of 41 it’s time to move on.
Jamayne Isaako rescued his score with the side’s sole try. He has a breakeven of 88, I’d move him on having made an excellent $161k for owners.
He’s not a definite sell, I just think he’s done his job as a mid-ranger and has peaked with tough upcoming games where you’d be hesitant to play him.
Despite starting the game against the Bunnies, Tevita Pangai Jnr played just 42 minutes for 42 points and is a sell with a breakeven of 139 having lost $55k this week.
Those who jumped on after his blistering start to the season were truly unlucky, but it’s a note for future that be it injury, suspension or simply a coaching decision he somehow always manages to find himself falling out of SuperCoach relevance.
Starting on the edge he may get more minutes, so you can wait a week to assess his minutes if needed, but it could prove costly.
Jordan Riki played 66 minutes, the first time all year he’s played less than 80. Had it not been for Ben Teo’s injury it likely would have been less.
He’s a sell now that he’s been benched with a breakeven of 49 having made $113k.
Payne Haas has a breakeven of 120 and will be absolutely ripe for picking in two weeks when the Broncos draw begins to open up in time for him bottoming out in price.
With the likes of TPJ, Paulo and Tino all proving inconsistent he’ll be a welcome addition at a big discount on his starting price.
Panthers: 1. Stephen Crichton 2. Charlie Staines 3. Paul Momirovski 4. Matt Burton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Isaah Yeo
Bench: 14. Tyrone May 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Matthew Eisenhuth 17. Liam Martin
Reserves: 18. Scott Sorensen 19. Robert Jennings 20. J’maine Hopgood 21. Jaeman Salmon
Analysis: This is obviously a dream match up for Penrith’s SuperCoach contingent on a dry Suncorp Stadium track.
I’ve seen plenty of Stephen Crichton owners who are keen to move him on this week, I think you’re mad.
Sure he’s underwhelmed so far, but he’s dropped in price to just over $400k, so for starters there’s no value in the trade despite his breakeven of 81.
He could surpass that easily this week, then faces a depleted Knights outfit followed by the Sea Eagles, Sharks and Titans.
Those who held Charlie Staines will be cheering following his 85 against the Raiders.
He now has a breakeven of 2 and made $54k this week. Surely tries continue in coming weeks, he could be as much as $450k in a few week’s time, although we know there is the risk of some dismal scores.
I’ll likely be playing him in my 17 this week despite the risk.
I think Brian To’o is a must-have from now on. He’s had over 40 in pure base in his past four games and is playing on arguably the most lethal edge in the NRL outside the competition’s form half in Jarome Luai.
Analysis: Kalyn Ponga was solid on return with 66 points and will factor at some stage this season, but let’s monitor him in coming weeks.
Connor Watson played 80 at 5/8 for 52 points. With a breakeven of 68 he may be nearing his peak. I don’t hate the idea of selling him, but I think there are probably better trades around as he’s looking very good.
I’ve also got an eye on the Round 13 bye week where he will be a crucial extra number before being flipped to Grant/Cook.
Watson has been moved back to lock with Kurt Mann’s return in the halves, you’d think he’ll play from the bench based on the beginning of the year, probably for 50-60 minutes.
Jayden Brailey is averaging 79PPG and looks a hold until at least the first bye week.
KP took over the goal-kicking from Mitch Barnett in a huge blow to his owners. Barnett still scored an okay 53 with 46 in base, and with a breakeven of 95 and no goal-kicking he’s probably peaked.
Owners now have the decision to make as to whether or not he’s a keeper.
Without the kicking I don’t think he is, but I do think he’ll continue to jag attacking stats outside KP on that left edge.
With big questions marks around so many elite 2RFs I’ll hold for the time being, probably till Round 13.
He’ll also kick goals in Round 13 with KP on Origin duty.
If he’s your ticket to David Fifita than it’s a different story, pull the trigger.
Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Josh Morris 4. Joseph Manu 5. Brett Morris 6. Drew Hutchinson 7. Sam Walker 8. Isaac Liu 9. Ben Marschke 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Angus Crichton 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Victor Radley
Bench: 14. Adam Keighran 15. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 16. Nat Butcher 17. Lindsay Collins
Reserves: 18. Fletcher Baker 19. Matt Ikuvalu 20. Jesse Marschke 21. Daniel Suluka-Fifita
Analysis: Those who went Teddy-Latrell are licking their lips after one week of results. It’s still early days, but so far so good, and surely Teddy doesn’t go too monstrous v the Storm down there?
He dropped $75k and has a breakeven of 153, so he’s set for another huge fall.
There’s obviously a decent case once again this week to sell, I’ll leave that one up to you!
Daniel Tupou has dropped $117k and has a breakeven of 69 which will be tough to hit in this game.
His 33BPG remains excellent, however he’s only scored one try this season.
Hopefully at under $500k next week he’s a serious POD CTW at an absolute bargain price.
Brett Morris scored his fourth ton of the season against the Sharks, for a winger in SuperCoach that is incredible.
He may be a David Nofoaluma case this year where we wait and wait for him to drop, but it doesn’t happen.
Sam Walker, my goodness… I played Teig Wilton over him on my bench and wasn’t the slightest bit filthy watching that masterclass in the final 20 minutes.
It was a pleasure to watch and I’m so excited to watch him develop because the class of his touches and confidence to steer that side around with game breaking plays was mindblowing.
All that being said, I won’t be playing him in my 17 against the Storm.
His 13BPG is awful, so there will be a reliance on attacking stats going forward. I do expect him to make a ton of tackles with Melbourne likely to try and isolate him and work him over the entire game.
Reserves: 18. Tevita Funa 19. Zac Saddler 20. Christian Tuipulotu 21. Ben Trbojevic
Analysis: Patient Jason Saab owners finally saw the big marn break his try-scoring duck this season, unfortunately not alongside a linebreak.
The 5 from a fortnight back is about to drop out of his rolling average, so it’s vital he backs up his 44 with a similar/better effort.
If he doesn’t he’ll be back to square one. If he can jag 50 we may have some hope of selling him at $300k+.
I do think Tommy Turbo’s return is going to be enormous for the SuperCoach output of this entire side.
Dirt cheap at $593k by his standards, it’d take one of the boldest SuperCoach players in the game to get Tommy Turbo in your side, but we know some one-eyed Manly maniac will roll the dice.
If he strings games together he will feature at some point, but you’d want to see him get through plenty before selling any of Papy/Latrell/Teddy.
Josh Schuster made $150k in two weeks and has a break of 20. Playing 80 on the edge and looking excellent, he’s a very safe play in 17s each week.
He’ll be a tremendous upgrade to a gun 5/8 in a fortnight’s time, there’s still money to be made though.
Titans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Phillip Sami 3. Brian Kelly 4. Patrick Herbert 5. Corey Thompson 6. Ash Taylor 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Jarrod Wallace 9. Mitch Rein 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. Kevin Proctor 12. David Fifita 13. Tyrone Peachey
Bench: 14. Moeaki Fotuaika 15. Sam Lisone 16. Jaimin Jolliffe 17. Erin Clark
Reserves: 18. Beau Fermor 19. Herman Ese’ese 20. Sam McIntyre 21. Jonus Pearson
Analysis: Ah Fifi, you’re killing me mate… At $754k with a breakeven of 45 he’s just about out of sight for many, including myself who is going with To’o this week.
His 46BPG is still only okay for an 80 minute back-rower, but his attacking output is just unmatched by any other forward at the moment. Despite the huge price, he’s obviously worth it.
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui is proving hard to catch, scoring only 26 points in an excellent 66 minutes. A week ago he almost tripled that score in base alone!
He played most of the game on the right edge and saw no ball, with Fifita rightly getting it all. Back in the middle he should improve dramatically.
With no FRF options really putting their hand up I’m just going to hold for the time being.
Tyrone Peachey played 80 minutes, scoring 101 points with 41 in base.
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The minutes were inflated due to Phillip Sami’s injury.
A bit like TPJ, he always comes into SuperCoach relevance at some point but always disappoints, so I’m hesitant to invest.
With a breakeven of 45 we can wait a week at least and assess his minutes as I still think he needs minimum 60 to warrant buying.
Corey Thompson the little legend has been a SuperCoach stud this season with an average of 74PPG with a solid 30BPG.
The Titans draw is enticing with games against the Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs, Broncos and Tigers in the next month, so there’s a case to be made for him.
However, with six tries in five games I prefer the more proven CTW options of To’o, Nofa, Tupou (next week) over him, despite the POD enticement.
At a tick under $500k Brian Kelly looks a terrific option, with great base and attacking potency. Again, I’d still just lean toward the above mentioned players, but I would go him over Thompson.
Analysis: South Sydney’s attacking contingent all continue to appeal with games coming up against the Tigers and Titans.
Do be aware though that after that they come into a tough draw against the Raiders, Storm, Sharks, Panthers and Eels, and then have the Round 13 bye.
Latrell has scored just a handful of points less than Teddy this season and is still affordable at $625k with a breakeven of 20.
While I won’t be doing it, I don’t mind the idea of flipping the two, but if I was I’d have the plan in place to be going Latrell back to Teddy in a fortnight’s time, likely for a decent profit.
Cody Walker returns, hopefully he can repay the faith of owners who held following last week’s suspension.
Campbell Graham appeals at just $440k having lost over $100k.
His 38BPG is elite, but I’m seriously concerned at the amount of attacking ball that right edges see, especially with Cody back on deck.
Dane Gagai is averaging 65PPG and is a massive POD at only 3% ownership. Like Graham, his 37BPG is stunning.
Damien Cook so far this season has scored 36, 102, 46, 106 and 47, make of that what you will, I’m over trying to predict what he’s going to throw up each week!
Cam Murray has been seriously frustrating to own, he’s averaged just 57MPG over the past three weeks.
He’s had four scores in the 50s and a 64 so far, with an excellent 55BPG.
If you said in Round 1 he’d average 55 in base the whole comp would have jumped on, however he’s yet to record a single attacking stat this season!
I’m bewildered how he hasn’t flourished under the quicker game (statistically).
Probably against my better judgement I’ll be holding tight, the attacking stats have to come, right?
More to the point though is just that there’s not too many back-rowers knocking the door down as replacements and I think he’s now very undervalued having lost $78.5k. If he’s your ticket to Fifita than go for it.
Tigers: 1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. James Roberts 4. Asu Kepaoa 5. Tommy Talau 6. Adam Doueihi 7. Luke Brooks 8. James Tamou 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Stefano Utoikamanu 11. Joe Ofahengaue 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Alex Twal
Bench: 14. Moses Mbye 15. Luke Garner 16. Thomas Mikaele 17. Zane Musgrove
Reserves: 18. Jacob Liddle 19. Alex Seyfarth 20. Tom Amone 21. Michael Chee Kam
Analysis: The Tigers draws opens up from next week with games against the Sea Eagles, Dragons, Titans, Knights, Warriors and Dragons, before playing Round 13.
My hesitancy is that I don’t rate them too much so they’re a little bit harder to come by. The Round 13 bye coverage is key. It makes David Nofoaluma an even better prospect as everyone will want him for that week.
He’s $570k with a breakeven of 90, get ready to pounce in the next fortnight.
For the same reason, Daine Laurie may be an indefinite hold. With a breakeven of 40 he’s probably peaked for the time being, but we might be able to squeeze another $80-100k out of him with the draw opening up, then sell after Round 13.
With a 3RA of 89.3PPG, Adam Doueihi is an intriguing prospect.
He’ll cost you top dollar at $563k, but at 2% ownership he could be a ripping POD play.
With back-row stocks a little down at the moment, Luciano Leilua is enticing some with back-to-back scores of 91 and 84.
His 45BPG is okay, but the Tigers direct so much of their attack around him that his upside is decent. Not for me, but I see some appeal.
Jake Simpkin finally comes in at hooker, he’s been carving up the NSW Cup. It’s a blow for Jacob Liddle owners who has a breakeven of 11 and would have made good money with just one more starting game, I’d be moving on now for a gun hooker/5-8 (via duals).
Stefano Utoikamanu starts at prop for the first time in his career, boom!
Raiders: 1. Caleb Aekins 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Curtis Scott 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. George Williams 8. Josh Papalii 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Sia Soliola 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Joe Tapine
Bench: 14. Tom Starling 15. Ryan Sutton 16. Siliva Havili 17. Emre Guler
Reserves: 18. Sebastian Kris 19. Matt Frawley 20. Corey Harawira-Naera 21. Dunamis Lui
Analysis: The Raiders are pretty boring this year in SuperCoach, with any forward options struggling for much relevance due to their huge depth.
At $286k Ryan James looked an option for anyone looking to free up cash, but he has dropped out of the squad entirely, at this stage I’m not too sure why but I’m sure the reason will drop shortly.
Josh Hodgson has peaked with a breakeven of 77 and can be sold having made a tick under $100k for owners.
Analysis: After this week, Parramatta’s draw opens up with games against the Broncos, Dogs, Roosters, Warriors and Sea Eagles. They also play the Round 13 bye week.
Blake Ferguson didn’t get in on the try-scoring action against the Dragons but still got through plenty of work.
His 32BPG is strong, and his breakeven is up to 37. He’s made $170k for owners who will have a decision to make on whether to hold through the nice run and play in Round 13 or sell for a fallen gun, I’m leaning towards the hold.
Junior Paulo, what’s doing? He had 37 points in 55 minutes, rubbish. Despite the breakeven of 107, I’ll be holding as I’m not overly concerned, but more for the fact there’s no other FRF options really exciting me.
Reed Mahoney scored 60 in base against the Dragons and is looking like more and more a keeper with every game, and he has Round 13 bye coverage!
Isaiah Papali’I has made the most of Ryan Matterson’s absence, producing back-to-back scores of 93 and 109.
He hasn’t scored under 50 in base this season.
It’ll be interesting to see how many minutes he plays with Matto back in the side. May are keen, but that price for a bench forward?
Dylan Brown is out for a week due to suspension with Will Smith to start in the halves.
Bulldogs: 1. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 2. Nick Cotric 3. Will Hopoate 4. Corey Allan 5. Tuipulotu Katoa 6. Jake Averillo 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Dylan Napa 9. Sione Katoa 10. Jack Hetherington 11. Adam Elliott 12. Corey Waddell 13. Luke Thompson
Bench: 14. Jackson Topine 15. Renouf Atoni 16. Chris Smith 17. Ofahiki Ogden
Reserves: 19. Brandon Wakeham 21. Dean Britt 22. Joe Stimson 23. Matt Doorey
Analysis: There’s nothing of note really at the Dogs with Josh Jackson dropping out due to injury.
Adam Elliott continues to score well with 66PPG, but with his attack limited at the Dogs there’s better option with higher ceilings.
Jackson Topine looks like a bit of a trap at $173,700 with a -11 breakeven. He has a 23 in his rolling average and there’s been plenty of uncertainty around his eligibility to start for the Dogs and his position in general due to squad rules.
A starting Condon probably looks the safer bet of the two 2RF cheapies.
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SUPERCOACH TERMINOLOGY KEY
MPG = Minutes per game
PPG = Points per game
PPM= Points per minute
BPG = Base per game (point accrued in tackles + runs + missed tackles)
POD = Point of difference
3RA = Three round average
5RA = Five round average
BREAKEVEN (B/E) = The score a player must record to earn a price rise.