Walson Carlos
2019 SuperCoach Classic runner-up
Final Word: Rd 5, key trade + tactical advice
2019 runner-up Walson Carlos has the final say on the major Round 5 plays, including PODs and captaincy options.
Final Word
April 8, 2021
- SUPERCOACH 101: Four rounds in, what have we learned so far?
- STAT ANALYSIS: Vital numbers to beat the best, Round 5
Injuries and suspensions are certainly testing SuperCoaches this year.
Ryan Papenhuyzen exploded in a breathtaking 11 minute burst that led to him nearly breaking the SuperCoach individual scoring record.
Papi gets another favourable match-up against the Bulldogs this weekend and will be a popular trade in and captain option.
Trade-wise this week I am bringing in David Fifita who has looked really good this year.
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Embed from Getty ImagesI’d be lying if I said I hadn’t considered the POD move in bringing in Tohu Harris instead, but I think Fifita has greater upside and I don’t want to lose ground on the leaders by not having him.
Next week I am doing a “Taking Stock” article exclusive to SC Playbook subscribers that help you take stock of your side and where you stand in terms of rankings, squad composition and potential cash generation.
It’s a delicate balancing act of all three and no more so than in the 2021 season.
The article will break down each position and analyse the players you should have, could have and will want to have before we hit the Round 13 bye.
Embed from Getty ImagesPODs & Super PODS
After four rounds here’s the players I’ve identified as PODs (Point of Difference players – less than 10% owned) and Super PODS (less than 2% owned) that should be on your radar.
I’ve listed them in ranking order of who I believe is the best to take the risk on:
PODs (My top 5 ranked)
1. Ryan Matterson – Oh how the mighty have fallen! Deadset SuperCoach royalty at the start of the year, Matto has a slow start to the season after a change of sides and cops a bad head knock. Now he’s a POD? O ye of little faith. Watch Matto burn us all as he returns with vengeance to remind us all of why he is a SuperCoach legend.
2. Isaiah Papali’i – What a transformation. You could argue there is not a single player in the NRL who has benefitted more from the rule changes in 2021 and noone before the season started would’ve picked Papali’i. Fact is he’s rock hard fit and playing out of his skin.
3. Luciano Leilua – Building his season and starting to hit his straps and the Tigers hit a great run of 5 x day/dusk games against favourable opposition.
4. Leeson Ah Mau – I have been spruiking this guy all year and he has quietly got on with the business and made over $50k already this year. And the good news? He hasn’t recorded one offload yet, so once he starts offloading expect 4-12 more points a game on average.
5. Corey Thompson – Thompson has scores of 68, 59, 73 and 67. That’s pretty good reading for a position that is full of inconsistency. You could go a lot worse than Corey Thompson.
Embed from Getty ImagesSuper PODs (My top 5 ranked)
1. Adam Doueihi – This bloke has rocketed into the number one position. An improving player who is really only starting to find his game and has so much improvement in him. The Tigers upcoming run of 5 x day/dusk games in the next five weeks against favourable opposition makes Doueihi an enticing Super POD option.
2. Tariq Sims – Remember way back when Tariq Sims was one of the most destructive edge runners in the game? I do. Although it seems like a lifetime ago. He’s had a bad run of injuries, but the last two weeks he has looked like the player of old that played State of Origin. SuperCoach scores reflect that.
3. Moeaki Fotuaika – Big Moe has been overshadowed by his higher profile team mates in Fifita and big Tino, but he has been sneakily solid and with his footwork and offload ability he is an excellent Super POD option at the FRF position.
4. Adam Elliott – He had a bit of a down week and is suffering from the impotency of Bulldogs attack, however Elliott looks by far the most dangerous attacking threat. If the Bulldogs can find some points Elliott might well be a legitimate Super POD option.
5. Marata Niukore – Averaging 62.7 from three games at centre since Waqa Blake has been injured and looks awesome doing it. He might have found his position. The frustrating thing is Niukore is only available at 2RF position and not at CTW.
Embed from Getty ImagesROUND 5 MATCH-UPS
The players I think matchup well SuperCoach wise are:
Alex Johnston, Gagai, Mitchell, Cook and Arrow v Broncos
Nikorima, RTS and Eliesa Katoa v Sea Eagles.
Papi, Munster, Olam and Harry Grant v Bulldogs
David Fifita and Brian Kelly v Knights
Nofo, Doueihi, Brooks, Laurie and Luciano Leilua v Cowboys
Embed from Getty ImagesCAPTAIN
Expect Papi to be the highest percentage Captaincy this week after a stunning performance against the Broncos last week. Cameron Munster is also another great option that will entice owners. Latrell Mitchell is poised to step up with Cody Walker out suspended and could be in for a huge score against the struggling Broncos. If you are a Latrell owner it has to be very tempting to put the yellow captain’s armband on him. David Fifita, RTS and Damien Cook are also smoky options.
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TOPSPORT BETs of the WEEK
2021 – ROI (Return on Investment) = +32%
- • 2021 Results based on $10 per bet. $190 bet. $251.10 return.
= $61.10 profit.
Round 4 Recap
I went for a bit too much with the Cody Walker 3+ tries @ $23 bet. Cody got 2 tries.
Whilst Jarome Luai 2+ tries @ $16 didn’t really get a look in, Luai is playing well.
Nelson Asofa-Solomona Anytime Tryscorer @ $4.20 didn’t get the chocolates, but big NAS is well and truly due to cross the line.
The Multi (Rabbitohs -21.5/Storm -19.5/Sharks win/Raiders win = $7.59) was one strong winner for the weekend and got a nice collect for punters.
The Value Multi (Rabbitohs -29.5/Storm -29.5/Warriors +6 = $19.33) was on track before the Warriors blew it in the second half.
Round 5 Best Bets
Daine Laurie 2+ tries@ $9
Anytime Tryscorer Multi – E.Katoa/B.Kelly/D.Laurie@ $20.29
Multi – Warriors +6.5/Raiders v Panthers Total -37.5/Cowboys v Tigers Over 7.5 tries Total game tries/Eels win @ $4.80
Value Multi – Raiders 1-12/Sharks +7.5/Parra -9.5 @ $14.82
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