Squad Breakdown: Team insights, Round 5

2020 NRL SuperCoach runner-up Tim Williams analyses all the key SuperCoach ins and outs following the release of Round 5 teams.

Squad Breakdown

The previous round saw one of the highest scoring efforts I’ve seen in a long time.

Ryan Papenhuyzen’s enormous 197 helped, but stacks of SuperCoaches either didn’t own or captain him, so it showed the huge individual efforts across the board.

Get used to it as we’ll see similar efforts across the season as score lines continue to blow out.

The Cooma Stallions produced what I thought was a very respectable 1,348 points.

Very few of my players struggled, but captaining Cody Walker over Lil Papy had me well behind a host of SuperCoaches who went 1500+ (or the odd 1600+), madness!

I dropped slightly in the ranks to 2,302 overall, so I’m still happy with how I’m placed this early in the season.

Apologies for a briefer rundown of the teams this week, the Easter long weekend has set me back a bit and it’s a big day ahead with the podcast to come later this afternoon.

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RABBITOHS v BRONCOS

Thursday, 7.50pm, Stadium Australia, Sydney

Rabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Dane Gagai 4. Campbell Graham 5. Josh Mansour 6. Benji Marshall 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Thomas Burgess 9. Damien Cook 10. Tevita Tatola 11. Jacob Host 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Cameron Murray

Bench: 14. Dean Hawkins 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Patrick Mago 17. Jai Arrow

Reserves: 18. Hame Sele 19. Jaxson Paulo 20. Troy Dargan 21. Steven Marsters

Analysis: In a devastating blow to owners, Cody Walker misses this dream match up for the Bunnies. 

Some are toying with the idea of selling, I think it’s madness. Jarome Luai has a tough match up with the Raiders, while Cam Munster is obviously enticing against the Dogs, but he hasn’t set the world alight just yet.

Walker is averaging 75.3PPG and plays the Tigers and Titans on return where he could go huge.

Alex Johnston’s new owners were left disappointed, but he could still go big at any time over the next month, likewise Dane Gagai and Campbell Graham.

The left edge will suffer without Walker this week, but I do think it’ll see Latrell Mitchell get more good ball, he could go very large.

Cam Murray has played just 54 and 58 minutes in the past two weeks which is very concerning for owners.

He’s been okay, having a low score of 53 and a high of 64, but the attacking stats just aren’t coming.

I’m holding as I’m sure he’ll come good and make coin, but if he’s your ticket to David Fifita or Angus Crichton I can’t oppose the trade.

Damien Cook has been a seesaw thus far with scores of 36, 102, 46 and 106, gee he’s been hard to catch.

Connor Watson or Jayden Brailey to him in a week or two looks a strong play.

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Broncos: 1. Jamayne Isaako 2. Xavier Coates 3. Richard Kennar 4. Tesi Niu 5. David Mead 6. Anthony Milford 7. Tom Dearden 8. Matt Lodge 9. Jake Turpin 10. Payne Haas 11. Alex Glenn 12. Jordan Riki 13. Tevita Pangai Junior

Bench: 14. Brodie Croft 15. Thomas Flegler 16. John Asiata 17. Ben Te’o

Reserves: 18. Ethan Bullemor 19. Rhys Kennedy 20. Corey Paix 21. Not named

Analysis: As tipped, Jamayne Isaako flopped against strong opposition with 31 points. He now has a breakeven of 28, if he goes sub 50 again this week which is very possible he’ll be a sell having made owners only about $60k.

Tesi Niu scored a very solid 47 against the Storm, he now has a breakeven of 39.

With Brisbane’s upcoming run I’m likely to sell this week to Brian To’o, but he can wait another week in case he goes large for anyone wanting to hold.

Brisbane’s upcoming run against the Bunnies, Panthers and Eels put the writing on the wall for me.

Payne Haas only scored 55 on return, but it was against the Storm who destroy SuperCoach scoring.

Importantly, he played a massive 69 minutes, so get ready to poach in a few week’s time at a discount.

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Jordan Riki again played 80 minutes for 55 points, leaving him with a breakeven of 29.

I’m worried about his minutes going forward with key cattle back, but it’s a good sign.

He will likely be a sell in the next fortnight, but if he’s your ticket to Fifita/Crichton this week I don’t mind the idea of going early.

Tevita Pangai Jnr only played 30 minutes for 32 points which is absolutely crazy.

He now has a breakeven of 114, leaving owners with a very tough call to hold or sell. You’d lean toward selling, but he could just as easily play 60 minutes this week and ton up.

Thankfully for anyone holding he’s been named to start with Pat Carrigan out due to suspension.

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WARRIORS v SEA EAGLES

Friday, 6pm, Central Coast Stadium, Gosford

Warriors: 1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 2. David Fusitu’a 3. Adam Pompey 4. Marcelo Montoya 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Sean O’Sullivan 8. Leeson Ah Mau 9. Wade Egan 10. Tohu Harris 11. Eliesa Katoa 12. Jack Murchie 13. Jazz Tevaga

Bench: 14. Ben Murdoch-Masila 15. Tom Ale 16. Kane Evans 17. Josh Curran

Reserves: 18. Rocco Berry 20. Paul Turner 21. Jackson Frei 22. Taniela Otukolo

Analysis: Tohu Harris scored a try but only managed 72 points, regardless he continues to churn out big scores. His move to prop for the injured AFB doesn’t change anything for him.

Kodi Nikorima hit the skids with 35 points and now has a breakeven of 22. His 134 drops out of his rolling average after this week.

Owners can decide then if he’s a hold or sell for a big profit. Him to Sam Walker next week looks like absolute gold!

New Fonua-Blake owners would be devastated by his early injury against the Roosters, unfortunately he’s had injury concerns in recent years.

He looks a sell this week to someone like Junior Paulo or TKO.

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Sea Eagles: 1. Dylan Walker 2. Jason Saab 3. Brad Parker 4. Morgan Harper 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Kieran Foran 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Martin Taupau 11. Jack Gosiewski 12. Josh Schuster 13. Jake Trbojevic

Bench: 14. Cade Cust 15. Toafofoa Sipley 16. Sean Keppie 17. Josh Aloiai

Reserves: 18. Tevita Funa 19. Zac Saddler 20. Christian Tuipulotu 21. Ben Trbojevic

Analysis: Not a lot happening here outside of Josh Schuster who was solid with 47 points in 80 minutes for an $80k price rise.

He looks a safe play every week in 17s and remains a great trade in this week with a breakeven of -36.

Jason Saab has been awful for SuperCoaches, so hopefully nobody has played him in 17s.

At $200k and no CTW cheapies around he’s a hold as there’s no value in the trade.

If your CTW is firing and you have money to go him to a gun than happy days.

I’ll just be holding and hoping Tommy Turbo’s return along with some easier opposition sees him score a few tries.

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PANTHERS v RAIDERS

Friday, 7.55pm, Bluebet Stadium, Penrith

Panthers: 1. Stephen Crichton 2. Charlie Staines 3. Paul Momirovski 4. Matt Burton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Isaah Yeo

Bench: 14. Tyrone May 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Matthew Eisenhuth 17. Liam Martin

Reserves: 18. Scott Sorensen 19. Robert Jennings 20. J’maine Hopgood 21. Jaeman Salmon

Analysis: Stephen Crichton’s move to fullback didn’t help him unfortunately, scoring just 30 points despite the strong win.

He shifted to left wing late, pushing Charlie Staines to fullback.

While Crichton is a hold and an obvious play regardless of position, owners will want him at centre on early signs.

He could be very cheap next week if he goes low against a resilient Raiders defence.

It’s also becoming clear Staines isn’t a play in 17s on the right edge that isn’t seeing much ball.

Jarome Luai is too dominant on the left edge that they rightly are commanding all the attacking ball.

Staines moved to fullback for the final couple of minutes and had a try-assist first touch, keep him there Ivan!!! I’m patiently holding…

Brian To’o is a beast, not that that’s new information. He scored 121 on the weekend but fortunately he still only has a breakeven of 24.

While he’s an obvious target this week, the trade can wait a week before they face Brisbane if you have other needs.

Luai scored 128 and continues to reward POD hunters who jumped on in Round 1.

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Raiders: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. George Williams 8. Josh Papalii 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Ryan Sutton 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Joe Tapine

Bench: 14. Tom Starling 15. Siliva Havili 16. Sia Soliola 17. Ryan James

Reserves: 18. Sam Williams 19. Semi Valemei 20. Dunamis Lui 21. Corey Harawira-Naera

Analysis: Bailey Simonsson is averaging 34.3PPG without a try to his name which is very solid despite the poor scoring.

I’ll be holding until the tries come, hopefully it doesn’t take too long.

He’s made $32k and has a breakeven of 16. Once again, I’d avoid playing him in 17s.

Ryan James started at prop, and while his 42 minutes weren’t exactly inflated, it’s a good sign going forward.

He scored 52 points, but still has a breakeven of 48 due to his HIA effected 5 points last week.

He could again be a good buy next round.

Joe Tapine makes an early return at lock, CHN has been named on an extended bench.

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TITANS v KNIGHTS

Saturday, 3pm, Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast

Titans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Phillip Sami 3. Brian Kelly 4. Patrick Herbert 5. Corey Thompson 6. Tanah Boyd 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Jarrod Wallace 9. Mitch Rein 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. Kevin Proctor 12. David Fifita 13. Tyrone Peachey

Bench: 14. Moeaki Fotuaika 15. Sam Lisone 16. Jaimin Jolliffe 17. Erin Clark

Reserves: 18. Beau Fermor 19. Herman Ese’ese 20. Sam McIntyre 21. Ash Taylor

Analysis: While he’s still not a great workhorse by any means, David Fifita’s work ethic is getting better and he’s pretty well a must-have due to his attacking upside.

He scored 88 points in a well beaten side, with 23 tackles, 13 runs, four tackle breaks and three offloads.

With a breakeven of 45 he’s a good buy on any given week.

He hasn’t been bad at all, but thankfully Tino Fa’asuamaleaui repaid the faith of owners with a big score of 93.

He had 39 tackles, 20 runs, 7 tacklebreaks and a linebreak, huge!!!

Even more encouraging was the fact he played 71 minutes.

Tyrone Peachey played a far better 58 minutes but only produced 36 points, with a breakeven of 47 let’s just sit back and assess his time/output in coming weeks.

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Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Starford To’a 3. Enari Tuala 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Hymel Hunt 6. Connor Watson 7. Blake Green 8. David Klemmer 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Mitchell Barnett 13. Sauaso Sue

Bench: 14. Chris Randall 15. Pasami Saulo 16. Josh King 17. Brodie Jones

Reserves: 18. Jack Johns 19. Brayden Musgrove 20. Simi Sasagi 21. Garrett Smith

Analysis: Injuries have hit the Knights hard which is a concern for all attacking assets, including Mitch Barnett as goal-kicker.

The team named could be completely different come gameday, so I’m keen to reassess every player after this round.

Cheapies may emerge, Watson should play 80 provided he stays in the halves, there’s lots to unfold, but the final game day 17 will tell us plenty.

Kalyn Ponga returns which is extremely exciting and very timely, that’s good news for the entire side, especially the left edge including Barnett who will be lethal in attack now KP is back. Hopefully he continues to kick goals…

Barnett is ticking along in strong fashion and remains an indefinite hold, likely at very least until the Round 13 bye week where he plays.

Jayden Brailey is averaging 80PPG and hasn’t scored below 65, he is looming as a hold until Round 13 also but could become Cook/Grant in a fortnight’s time if he comes back in scoring.

Connor Watson still has a breakeven of -3. When last week’s ton drops out of his three round average he may be a sell in the next fortnight at a huge profit, but let’s see what team runs out in Round 5.

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BULLDOGS v STORM

Saturday, 5.30pm, Stadium Australia, Sydney

Bulldogs: 1. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 2. Nick Cotric 3. Will Hopoate 4. Corey Allan 5. Tuipulotu Katoa 6. Jake Averillo 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Luke Thompson 9. Sione Katoa 10. Jack Hetherington 11. Adam Elliott 12. Corey Waddell 13. Josh Jackson

Bench: 14. Jackson Topine 15. Renouf Atoni 16. Dylan Napa 17. Ofahiki Ogden

Reserves: 19. Brandon Wakeham 20. Chris Smith 21. Dean Britt 22. Joe Stimson

Analysis: Little to add here, Jackson Topine played 73 minutes for 53 points due to Lachlan Lewis’ early HIA.

He’s $173k at 2RF, but there’s no way I’d be going early. Josh Jackson returns which is another 70-80 minutes in the pack gone.

Wait a week…

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Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. George Jennings 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Brandon Smith 10. Christian Welch 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Nelson Asofa-Solomona

Bench: 14. Chris Lewis 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Tom Eisenhuth 17. Nicho Hynes

Reserves: 18. Aaron Pene 19. Dean Ieremia 20. Brenko Lee 21. Harry Grant

Analysis: I won’t add much on Lil Papy, he obliterated the Broncos and is a must-have and probably a lock in skipper option this week against the Dogs.

Cam Munster is ticking along solidly with a 69.5PPG average, despite not scoring above 86. This could be the week he goes 100+.

Christian Welch is playing silly buggers with owners with 71 points in a season-high 59 minutes.

He had five effective offloads which is what we’ve wanted to see all season.

Owners can now probably hold for a week or two and reassess if his minutes/offloads are maintained, that is unless he’s your avenue to a genuine gun FRF/2RF.

Brenko Lee and Harry Grant have been named on an extended bench.

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ROOSTERS v SHARKS

Saturday, 7.35pm, SCG, Sydney

Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Josh Morris 4. Joseph Manu 5. Brett Morris 6. Drew Hutchinson 7. Sam Walker 8. Isaac Liu 9. Freddy Lussick 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Angus Crichton 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Victor Radley

Bench: 14. Ben Marschke 15. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 16. Nat Butcher 17. Fletcher Baker

Reserves: 18. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 19. Egan Butcher 20. Joseph Suaalii 21. Matt Ikuvalu

Analysis: James Tedesco regressed to just 74 points without Luke Keary, hardly poor, but his attacking opportunities were scarcer against the Warriors.

I still wouldn’t sell, it’s just Teddy-Papy for the foreseeable future for me. He could also be somewhat of a POD skipper this week which is crazy to think and something we should consider.

Brett Morris is just blitzing his way to SuperCoach stardom with an average of 106PPG. 

If anyone jumped on him in Round 1 they’ll be soaring, but at $732k surely the likes of To’o/Nofa are better options.

Daniel Tupou is $529k with a breakeven of 88 and will be very cheap next week.

Sitili Tupouniua was a Round 4 casualty with an early HIA, savage for owners.

With a breakeven of 103 he can be moved on this week to a gun 2RF, while Angus Crichton remains a must-have with an average of 79PPG.

He had 23 runs on the weekend and was unlucky not to have a try allowed that would’ve pushed him over 100 comfortably. 

Sam Walker excelled on debut and is a must at bottom dollar, if you can wait until next week I’d do so in case of injury, but many will go early due to team circumstances.

I’m still a little scared to play him in my 17 on a small sample size, but the Sharks look like fairly nice opposition so he may score well again.

He also kicked goals when Siosiua Taukeiaho was off the field.

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Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Mawene Hiroti 3. Josh Dugan 4. Jesse Ramien 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Chad Townsend 8. Braden Hamlin-Uele 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Aaron Woods 11. Teig Wilton 12. Wade Graham 13. Toby Rudolf

Bench: 14. Connor Tracey 15. Aiden Tolman 16. Jack Williams 17. Billy Magoulias

Reserves: 18. Braydon Trindall 19. Nene Macdonald 20. Andrew Fifita 21. Franklin Pele

Analysis: Teig Wilton scored 78 points in 80 minutes and looked good. He’s just $250k and has a breakeven of -31, but with Briton Nikora back next week how many minutes does he get going forward? 

He should get decent time this week and a big price rise, but it’s very hard to know how he goes after this week.

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TIGERS v COWBOYS

Sunday, 4.05pm, Leichhardt Oval, Sydney

Tigers: 1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. James Roberts 4. Moses Mbye 5. Tommy Talau 6. Adam Doueihi 7. Luke Brooks 8. Zane Musgrove 9. Jacob Liddle 10. James Tamou 11. Luke Garner 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Alex Twal

Bench: 14. Michael Chee Kam 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Stefano Utoikamanu 17. Joe Ofahengaue

Reserves: 18. Alex Seyfarth 19. Joseph Leilua 20. Jake Simpkin 21. Tui Simpkins

Analysis: David Nofoaluma has dropped almost $100k to $577k, and has a breakeven of 88.

People are questioning whether he’s the Nofa of old, but they’re overlooking plenty of factors.

Firstly, last year was a SuperCoach year that was almost unmatchable for him, so we were waiting on a price drop anyway.

He’s averaging 54.8PPG in four games with two tries, but his base has still been exceptional.

The Tigers have had a brutal draw against the Raiders, Roosters, Knights and Eels so far, so with the draw now opening up things will become far easier for him.

Get him into your plans over the next fortnight as he also plays the Round 13 bye week.

Despite the Tigers poor form, Jacob Liddle crossed for his third try in four games against the Eels.

He initiated another round of price rises and can probably be held for anyone who still owns, although I’d still advise him to Schuster.

Moses Mbye will start at centre which indicates Liddle will player 80 minutes, however, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see rookie hooker Jake Simpkin replace Michael Chee-Kam on the bench come game day and play 30 minutes.

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Cowboys: 1. Valentine Holmes 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 4. Connelly Lemuelu 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Scott Drinkwater 7. Ben Hampton 8. Francis Molo 9. Reece Robson 10. Jordan McLean 11. Shane Wright 12. Ben Condon 13. Jason Taumalolo

Bench: 14. Jake Granville 15. Coen Hess 16. Josh McGuire 17. Lachlan Burr

Reserves: 18. Esan Marsters 19. Reuben Cotter 20. Corey Jensen 21. Jake Clifford

Analysis: Ben Condon struggled despite playing the full 80 minutes, definitely do not go a week early on him as a cheapie.

Despite the Cowboys horrendous form, Val Holmes is still averaging 55PPG, having scored 70 at fullback last week.

I find it hard to buy him with the way the Cows are playing, but monitor him closely.

Jason Taumalolo’s early return will help, so perhaps he’s a POD play in a few more weeks.

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EELS v DRAGONS

Sunday, 6.15pm, Bankwest Stadium, Sydney

Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Tom Opacic 4. Marata Niukore 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown

Bench: 14. Oregon Kaufusi 15. Isaiah Papali’i 16. Will Smith 17. Bryce Cartwright

Reserves: 18. Ray Stone 19. Haze Dunster 20. Keegan Hipgrave 21. Jordan Rankin

Analysis: My man Fergy Ferg continues to get it done, scoring 111 against the Tigers to boost his season average to 80PPG.

He’s made $119k and has a breakeven of -26, with the Eels playing the Dragons, Raiders, Broncos and Bulldogs in the next month.

After that run, we may be able to downgrade him to David Nofoaluma.

I think he’s a decent buy this week, but far from a must. The ship will have sailed by next week for anyone interested.

Ryan Matterson again pulled out late against the Tigers, surely he plays this week! Those who held have had a tough time of it.

Reed Mahoney scored his second ton of the year and now averages 93PPG. He looks a hold until at least Round 13 which Parramatta play, then we can reassess if he’s a keeper or not from there.

Junior Paulo didn’t register a major attacking stat this week but was still strong with 66 points in a season high 63 minutes, including four effective offloads.

With concerns around most of the front-row forwards, he looks the safest pick for the time being, while Haas/TKO are good options also.

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Dragons: 1. Matthew Dufty 2. Cody Ramsey 3. Jack Bird 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Corey Norman 7. Adam Clune 8. Blake Lawrie 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Josh Kerr 12. Tariq Sims 13. Tyrell Fuimaono

Bench: 14. Poasa Faamausili 15. Trent Merrin 16. Daniel Alvaro 17. Brayden Wiliame

Reserves: 18. Jackson Ford 19. Kaide Ellis 20. Jordan Pereira 21. Max Feagai

Analysis: Tyrell Fuimaono has made just $37k and has a breakeven of 30, I think he’s a hold for one more week in the hope of a major attacking stat to set off another round of rises.

However, I wouldn’t begrudge anyone who needs to move him on this week. 

Zac Lomax is becoming more affordable at $582k with a breakeven of 75.

With a 41 in his three round average he’ll hopefully be even cheaper in a fortnight’s time and we can consider jumping on.

With games against the Eels, Warriors then Roosters coming up, I’ll be eyeing him off in a month.

Despite being 3/4, there’s not much excitement at the Red V, especially as the draw gets tougher.

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SUPERCOACH TERMINOLOGY KEY

MPG = Minutes per game

PPG = Points per game

PPM= Points per minute

BPG = Base per game (point accrued in tackles + runs + missed tackles)

POD = Point of difference

3RA = Three round average

5RA = Five round average

BREAKEVEN (B/E) = The score a player must record to earn a price rise.

*Please note all our stats are taken from the geniuses at nrlsupercoachstats.com

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