We move onto Round 3 where we get our final crack at the majority of players before initial price rises occur, so it’s important to find a balance between cash generation and points potential in our trades.
I think it comes down to your own side and how well your cheapies and mid-rangers have performed so far.
If they’re firing, you can chase the points/cash combo of guys like Mitch Barnett and Junior Paulo, if they’re struggling a little it might force you to go two cheapies with extremely low breakevens.
Generally speaking, the focus should still be the guys with the low breakevens as cash generation is vital.
We’ll talk about this in depth on the SC Playbook podcast, so tune in if interested.
Lastly, for any rookie SuperCoaches out there, know that a player’s breakeven (score required to rise or fall in cash) is calculated based on their three round average (3RA).
As such, the first score in the 3RA will drop out after this week, changing the player’s breakeven significantly.
For example, David Mead has an attractive breakeven of -19 this week, but after Round 3 when his 77 points drop out of his 3RA his breakeven will rise significantly (unless he goes big again this week) making him a less attractive purchase.
Alternatively, someone like Ben Hunt who scored 116 in Round 2 will have that monster score in their 3RA for two whole rounds, meaning they are set for numerous big price rises.
Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Charlie Staines 3. Paul Momirovski 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Isaah Yeo
Bench: 14. Tyrone May 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Matthew Eisenhuth 17. Liam Martin
Reserves: 18. Scott Sorensen 19. Matt Burton 20. J’maine Hopgood 21. Jaeman Salmon
Analysis: Nathan Cleary has been named, but remains in serious doubt following a head knock against the Dogs.
He passed his game day HIA test which is encouraging, but early word out of the club suggests they’ll rest him.
Those who ran with Sam Walker as backup halfback will be sweating bullets at the moment.
There’s no way you’d be selling him if he doesn’t play, just cop the auto-emergency, or potentially upgrade Walker if you can.
I suppose a cheeky Ben Hunt two week cash grab is an option??? Dangerous…
Charlie Staines stunk it up again with just 10 points in the wet against the Bulldogs.
I played Tesi Niu over him, thank god. With a breakeven of 74 and an upcoming game against the Storm there’s a decent case to sell.
It’ll largely depend on how your cheapies have fared so far this season. After this week though he faces the Sea Eagles, Raiders and Broncos, so I’m tempted to hold as a play in two of those three fixtures, but I understand anyone wanting to sell.
Paul Momirovski bagged a double for 79 points and now has a breakeven of just 8 and is slightly tempting at $380k, but surely there’s more pressing trades this week?
Jarome Luai started the season with a bang for pod hunters, scoring 79 and 94. He’s a huge option, but I still have Cody Walker and Cam Munster ahead in the 5/8 pecking order, but if you grabbed him at the price you’re cheering.
Assess over the next few rounds, if he looks a season-long keeper than stay strong, if he doesn’t he’ll be an easy upgrade once maxing out in price.
The minutes in the Panthers pack is concerning. We saw Kurt Capewell play just 50 before being given an early rest in the one-sided affair with the Dogs.
In a crunch game against the Storm expect regular minutes for the big guns, which should see Capewell play 65+.
Spencer Leniu only played 29 minutes, but with a breakeven of -8 he looks a nice slow-burning cash cow and will make decent coin over time.
It’s hard to get a gauge on, but I believe Moses Leota played extended minutes due to the scoreline. I think he’s a sell with a breakeven of 38, but it’s certainly not a pressing trade if you want one more look.
Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. George Jennings 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Brandon Smith 10. Christian Welch 11. Tom Eisenhuth 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
Bench: 14. Aaron Pene 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Chris Lewis 17. Nicho Hynes
Reserves: 18. Cooper Johns 19. Darryn Schonig 20. Tyson Smoothy 21. Dean Ieremia
Analysis: Not a lot to be said about Ryan Papenhuyzen and Cam Munster who remain obvious holds/buys.
I’d want Papy asap if I didn’t own, Munster can wait, especially with this tough match up.
I feel for Brandon Smith owners, he’s been so close to a stack of attacking stats in the opening rounds but continually falls short.
Gutho cost him two try-assists that would have seen his score sky-rocket.
Against any other opposition than Penrith I’d say try and hold him at least until Grant/Finucane return, but with their defence he may struggle again and is probably a sell to someone like Mitch Barnett.
Christian Welch turned a corner despite the wet conditions against the Eels, scoring 66 points with 41 tackles, 12 runs and an offload, again in 51 minutes.
I wouldn’t be buying, but owners can hold fire on any trade plans as he should rise to $500k+ in time.
Don’t be surprised to see him play 55-60 minutes this week, possibly at the expense of a few to Brandon Smith.
Reserves: 18. Adam Clune 19. Kaide Ellis 20. Jackson Ford 21. Jordan Pereira
Analysis: Ben Hunt is proving a super POD scoring 116 points to sit with an average of 95PPG and a -35 breakeven.
The Dragons face the Sea Eagles this week in another enticing match up.
Owners of any under-performing mid-range halfbacks such as Chanel Harris-Tavita (now injured long term) could cash in on a trade if they choose.
Best case he remains a great POD, worst case you make money then move him on.
He’s also an option at hooker and has a breakeven slightly higher than Mahoney, but has a ton in his rolling average for an extra week.
Tyrell Fuimaono’s minutes dropped from 60 to 47 this week which is still decent.
He has a breakeven of -6 and should make nice coin, it’d be lovely for owners to see him cross the stripe this week.
I’d be hesitant to play in 17s, but he’s solid enough for struggling sides.
Daniel Alvaro pumped out 48 minutes for 74 points including 50 in base against the Cowboys.
He’s just $255k and has a breakeven of -23 and is a great trade target, perhaps more so than Ryan James as his higher score will sit in his rolling average a week longer, although I do likes James’ dual 2RF-FRF status.
Rabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Dane Gagai 4. Campbell Graham 5. Josh Mansour 6. Cody Walker 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Thomas Burgess 9. Damien Cook 10. Tevita Tatola 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Cameron Murray
Bench: 14. Benji Marshall 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Patrick Mago 17. Jai Arrow
Reserves: 18. Jacob Host 19. Tautau Moga 20. Troy Dargan 21. Stephen Marsters
Analysis: Those who sold Damien Cook will be filthy following his ton in the wet, although that pain will be eased big time if the Roosters defensive unit keep him at bay this week.
After this clash, the Bunnies draw opens up big time with games against the Dogs, Broncos, Tigers and Titans, so factor Cody Walker into your plans asap as he has a few tons in him in that run, potentially large ones at that.
Cam Murray is ticking along okay with a 58.5PPG average despite the tough Storm encounter and wet weather against Manly.
He played 74 minutes in Round 1, then 80 against Manly, massive for SuperCoach.
Attacking stats could come thick and fast during that easier run, so don’t dare sell, and consider him next week.
Jai Arrow scored a very solid 56 points in 51 minutes to sit with a breakeven of 37.
He has to start for this side very soon, and I suspect it’ll be on the edge, I wouldn’t be surprised if he did come game day. Plenty will struggle to squeeze him in this week with more pressing trades, but he shouldn’t make too much cash and will be very affordable again next week.
Raiders: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Curtis Scott 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. George Williams 8. Josh Papalii 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Dunamis Lui 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Joseph Tapine
Bench: 14. Siliva Havili 15. Ryan Sutton 16. Sia Soliola 17. Ryan James
Reserves: 18. Sam Williams 19. Tom Starling 20. Caleb Aekins 21. Sebastian Kris
Analysis: Bailey Simonsson only scored 29 against Cronulla in the wet and now has a breakeven of 2 and is an obvious hold.
Jarrod Croker returns at centre, pushing the in-form Seb Kris out of the squad which is a relief for the masses who own Bailey Simonsson.
George Williams is averaging 71PPG and has been an excellent POD halfback for anyone who jumped on, but will lose the goak-kicking with Croker’s return.
Josh Papalii is only averaging 45PPG in 49MPG and is a sell. He’ll be a big play down the track as his minutes rise.
Josh Hodgson scored 58 with a try-assist in 80 minutes. He’s only averaging 36BPG which is poor for an 80 minute hooker.
I’ll likely hold as I already own Jayden Brailey, but a move to Jacob Liddle (which I’m considering) or Reed Mahoney makes complete sense.
Upcoming games against the Warriors and Titans are fairly enticing, so hopefully he finds more of those attacking stats.
Hudson Young is an excellent POD at $474k and is owned by just 5% of teams.
He’s averaging 77PPG, with 48BPG, leaving him with a breakeven of just 8.
More than anything, he looks dynamic on field and could see some serious cash rises before deciding whether or not he’s a season-long keeper, although it’s unlikely.
Despite his form, Joe Tapine played just 41 minutes again this week.
He scored 42 points, and with his Round 1 ton dropping out of his 3RA after this week he’ll probably lose cash soon with a current breakeven of 46.
I’d be tempted to cut to someone like Barnett or Young this week, but it can wait a week for another look at minutes if tempted.
Ryan James surpassed all expectation on return from injury, averaging 40MPG across the opening rounds.
In that time, he’s had a try and two linebreaks to bolster his 39BPG.
More appealing to me is his dual FRF-2RF availability that left me, and I’m sure others, short last week in the pack with Crichton and Lodge out.
That flexibility is so key, so I’ll likely be bringing him in this week. I don’t expect the world as he won’t get those attacking stats every week, but he’s hard to ignore.
If Stuart ever goes back to a utility back or Tom Starling at 14 it’ll only help him.
Warriors: 1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 2. David Fusitu’a 3. Adam Pompey 4. Peta Hiku 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Sean O’Sullivan 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wade Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Eliesa Katoa 12. Bayley Sironen 13. Tohu Harris
Bench: 14. Jazz Tevaga 15. Ben Murdoch-Masila 16. Leeson Ah Mau 17. Jack Murchie
Reserves: 18. Tom Ale 20. Marcelo Montoya 21. Paul Turner 22. Kane Evans
Analysis: David Fusitu’a looms as a sell if you don’t already own someone like Laurie or Simonsson, but otherwise you can hold and wait till he starts bagging a few pies. Clearly he’s an avoid at all costs to plays in 17s though with an average of 23PPG.
Kodi Nikorima (34) struggled this week and is probably a sell to Ben Hunt or even George Williams.
However, the wet weather impacted that score significantly, so don’t feel like you have to sell just yet if you like what you’re seeing with the eye.
Chanel Harris-Tavita (28) is out with a lengthy injury and is an obvious sell.
Addin Fonua-Blake dropped from 57 to 48 minutes this week without the injuries.
He also left the field with a niggle of his own.
He looks good, but as a result of that I’d avoid for the time being and go towards Paulo or TKO if after a premium FRF.
Bayley Sironen only played 39 minutes and is an avoid, although with a breakeven of 14 you can hold one week if needed to earn some cash and get a look just in case he gets significantly more minutes against the Raiders.
Tohu Harris has played 80 and 73 minutes across the opening rounds.
Despite the big benches being named, he’s clearly a key part of the pack and will hopefully continue on with big game time.
He’s averaging 76PPG with a monster 63BPG playing across the middle and edge and is a rock solid trade in, especially now that there are concerns over Matterson following another HIA who I had well ahead of Tohu.
Leeson Ah Mau scored 47 points in a strong 46 minutes in Round 2.
He’s just $291k and sits with a breakeven of -16 and is a decent buy.
Sean O’Sullivan replaces the injured CHT, and at $231k as a halfback looks a great option for Sam Walker owners.
The question though is whether you pull it this week and bypass one of the many cash grab options available elsewhere?
Bulldogs: 1. Corey Allan 2. Nick Meaney 3. Will Hopoate 4. Nick Cotric 5. Tuipulotu Katoa 6. Jake Averillo 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Ofahiki Ogden 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Jack Hetherington 11. Adam Elliott 12. Corey Waddell 13. Josh Jackson
Analysis: Not a lot of note here, Matt Moylan flopped in awful conditions in the rain against Canberra with just 20 points.
Normally I’d say he’s a hold because he looks decent and is dirt cheap, but with the plethora of hooking options available it’s a must to get Connor Watson to 5/8 to free up that extra hooking position, and it’s at Moylan’s expense.
Knights: 1. Tex Hoy 2. Starford To’a 3. Enari Tuala 4. Bradman Best 5. Hymel Hunt 6. Kurt Mann 7. Mitchell Pearce 8. David Klemmer 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Mitchell Barnett 13. Connor Watson
Bench: 14. Sauaso Sue 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Josh King 17. Brodie Jones
Reserves: 18. Gehamat Shibasaki 19. Pasami Saulo 20. Dominic Young 21. Simi Sasagi
Analysis: Tex Hoy is going okay for anyone who jumped on and now has a -8 breakeven. While it seems crazy, I’d probably sell this week, move Watson to 5/8 and get in one of the amazing hooking options available.
Bradman Best was sensational in Round 2, scoring 95 points with 37 in base!
When KP comes back he’ll continues to excel. I can’t fit him in at $552k, but he’s a serious POD.
Jayden Brailey crossed for a try in Round 2 and now averages 88PPG with 57BPG and a breakeven of -54.
He’s near impossible to fault from a SuperCoach perspective at just $356k.
As tipped, David Klemmer’s minutes dropped big time to just 51 in Round 2, meaning the likes of Paulo and TPJ are better options as premium FRFs.
Ditto Daniel Saifiti who played 50 minutes for 46 points. His 128 is about to drop out of his 3RA and his breakeven will fly up.
Connor Watson has come off the bench in the opening rounds and is still averaging 57PPG in 52MPG.
His injury return likely impacts his move in Round 1, while the wet weather would have been the factor in Round 2 with the game to be played through the middle and far less expansively.
Hopefully he actually starts this week! Regardless, he’s shown he can still score well from the bench.
Mitch Barnett continued his strong start to the season with 85 points, including 53 in base.
He was super impressive with the boot, and if he maintains it in coming weeks he won’t relinquish the kicking duties to Kalyn Ponga when he returns.
This in my eyes turns him from a reliable scorer/cash grab to a genuine 2RF keeper, especially with the Matterson concern now.
With a breakeven of -4 he’s a great target this week, especially for anyone looking to offload Matto.
Tigers: 1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Tommy Talau 4. James Roberts 5. AJ Kepaoa 6. Adam Doueihi 7. Luke Brooks 8. Zane Musgrove 9. Jacob Liddle 10. James Tamou 11. Luke Garner 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Alex Twal
Bench: 14. Joe Ofahengaue 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Stefano Utoikamanu 17. Moses Mbye
Reserves: 18. Michael Chee Kam 19. Joseph Leilua 20. Russell Packer 21. Alex Seyfarth
Analysis: Daine Laurie was excellent in a Tigers side that was belted by the Roosters.
Despite the scoreline, he scored 73 points with an okay 27 in base, get him in.
As the opposition starts to ease in strength in coming weeks he’ll become an even more reliable play in 17s if you weren’t already.
David Nofoaluma scored 33 and will likely see some decent price drops, hopefully we can get him at around $500-550k in a month with a few more low scores, I won’t hold my breath though.
Luke Brooks lost the goal-kicking duties to the returning Adam Doueihi and in turn lost any minor interest I had in him.
Jacob Liddle joins the list of stellar hooking options with another strong score of 66 to leave him with a breakeven of -52.
There’s still so many questions though. He had a HIA in the loss so we still didn’t get an accurate gauge of his minutes.
The Tigers have been belted twice in a row, so is Madge tempted to bring in Jake Simpkin to the bench?
It’s tough, but Liddle has impressed regardless and is very enticing at just $247k so he’s hard to knock as a buy despite the question marks.
Stefano Utoikamanu scored 40 points in 38 minutes, maybe he won’t be as slow a burn as we’d anticipated!
Joe O has been benched in a blow for his owners, although it may not have a huge impact on his minutes.
Joey Leilua has been dropped for the returning James Roberts.
Titans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Anthony Don 3. Phillip Sami 4. Patrick Herbert 5. Corey Thompson 6. Tanah Boyd 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Jarrod Wallace 9. Mitch Rein 10. Moeaki Fotuaika 11. Kevin Proctor 12. David Fifita 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
Bench: 14. Tyrone Peachey 15. Sam Lisone 16. Jaimin Jolliffe 17. Erin Clark
Reserves: 18. Beau Fermor 19. Herman Ese’ese 20. Sam McIntyre 21. Sam Stone
Analysis: AJ Brimson scored just 18 and is a sell to Teddy/Papy.
Jamal Fogarty is averaging an okay 45PPG so far, leaving him with a breakeven of 57.
I’d be tempted to trade to Hunt for the cash grab, but there’s probably more pressing trades in your side.
David Fifita belted his old club with a double and 105 points. His base of 39 was very poor for an 80 minute player, but what he lacks there he makes up in attacking upside.
With a breakeven of 30 I’d say we’ve seen him at the cheapest price he’ll be for many years.
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui only played 53 minutes which is concerning, scoring an okay 46 points in that time.
I think he’s a hold, if your team somehow has no other dramas you could make a case to trade him.
Tanah Boyd replaces the injured Ash Taylor in the halves.
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SUPERCOACH TERMINOLOGY KEY
MPG = Minutes per game
PPG = Points per game
PPM= Points per minute
BPG = Base per game (point accrued in tackles + runs + missed
POD = Point of difference
3RA = Three round average
5RA = Five round average
BREAKEVEN (B/E) = The score a player must record to earn a price