Squad Breakdown: Team insights, Round 3

2020 NRL SuperCoach runner-up Tim Williams analyses all the key SuperCoach ins and outs following the release of Round 3 teams.

Squad Breakdown

We were given an early reminder of the brutality of SuperCoach in Round 2.

Torrential rain, injuries and HIAs all made for a tough weekend to navigate, so hopefully you survived it okay.

The Cooma Stallions got through it reasonably well, scoring 1,169 to stay steady in 6k overall, a start I’m happy with this early on.

The injury to Ryan Matterson meant I held Angus Crichton in my side, instead trading out Lachlan Lam and Matt Lodge for Jayden Brailey and Spencer Leniu which worked out well.

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We move onto Round 3 where we get our final crack at the majority of players before initial price rises occur, so it’s important to find a balance between cash generation and points potential in our trades.

I think it comes down to your own side and how well your cheapies and mid-rangers have performed so far.

If they’re firing, you can chase the points/cash combo of guys like Mitch Barnett and Junior Paulo, if they’re struggling a little it might force you to go two cheapies with extremely low breakevens.

Generally speaking, the focus should still be the guys with the low breakevens as cash generation is vital.

We’ll talk about this in depth on the SC Playbook podcast, so tune in if interested.

Lastly, for any rookie SuperCoaches out there, know that a player’s breakeven (score required to rise or fall in cash) is calculated based on their three round average (3RA).

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As such, the first score in the 3RA will drop out after this week, changing the player’s breakeven significantly.

For example, David Mead has an attractive breakeven of -19 this week, but after Round 3 when his 77 points drop out of his 3RA his breakeven will rise significantly (unless he goes big again this week) making him a less attractive purchase.

Alternatively, someone like Ben Hunt who scored 116 in Round 2 will have that monster score in their 3RA for two whole rounds, meaning they are set for numerous big price rises.

Let’s take a look at the Round 3 teams.

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PANTHERS v STORM

Thursday, 8.05pm, Panthers Stadium, Penrith

Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Charlie Staines 3. Paul Momirovski 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Isaah Yeo

Bench: 14. Tyrone May 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Matthew Eisenhuth 17. Liam Martin

Reserves: 18. Scott Sorensen 19. Matt Burton 20. J’maine Hopgood 21. Jaeman Salmon

Analysis: Nathan Cleary has been named, but remains in serious doubt following a head knock against the Dogs.

He passed his game day HIA test which is encouraging, but early word out of the club suggests they’ll rest him.

Those who ran with Sam Walker as backup halfback will be sweating bullets at the moment.

There’s no way you’d be selling him if he doesn’t play, just cop the auto-emergency, or potentially upgrade Walker if you can.

I suppose a cheeky Ben Hunt two week cash grab is an option??? Dangerous…

Charlie Staines stunk it up again with just 10 points in the wet against the Bulldogs.

I played Tesi Niu over him, thank god. With a breakeven of 74 and an upcoming game against the Storm there’s a decent case to sell.

It’ll largely depend on how your cheapies have fared so far this season. After this week though he faces the Sea Eagles, Raiders and Broncos, so I’m tempted to hold as a play in two of those three fixtures, but I understand anyone wanting to sell.

Paul Momirovski bagged a double for 79 points and now has a breakeven of just 8 and is slightly tempting at $380k, but surely there’s more pressing trades this week?

Jarome Luai started the season with a bang for pod hunters, scoring 79 and 94. He’s a huge option, but I still have Cody Walker and Cam Munster ahead in the 5/8 pecking order, but if you grabbed him at the price you’re cheering.

Assess over the next few rounds, if he looks a season-long keeper than stay strong, if he doesn’t he’ll be an easy upgrade once maxing out in price.

The minutes in the Panthers pack is concerning. We saw Kurt Capewell play just 50 before being given an early rest in the one-sided affair with the Dogs.

In a crunch game against the Storm expect regular minutes for the big guns, which should see Capewell play 65+.

Spencer Leniu only played 29 minutes, but with a breakeven of -8 he looks a nice slow-burning cash cow and will make decent coin over time.

It’s hard to get a gauge on, but I believe Moses Leota played extended minutes due to the scoreline. I think he’s a sell with a breakeven of 38, but it’s certainly not a pressing trade if you want one more look.

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Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. George Jennings 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Brandon Smith 10. Christian Welch 11. Tom Eisenhuth 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Nelson Asofa-Solomona

Bench: 14. Aaron Pene 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Chris Lewis 17. Nicho Hynes

Reserves: 18. Cooper Johns 19. Darryn Schonig 20. Tyson Smoothy 21. Dean Ieremia

Analysis: Not a lot to be said about Ryan Papenhuyzen and Cam Munster who remain obvious holds/buys.

I’d want Papy asap if I didn’t own, Munster can wait, especially with this tough match up.

I feel for Brandon Smith owners, he’s been so close to a stack of attacking stats in the opening rounds but continually falls short.

Gutho cost him two try-assists that would have seen his score sky-rocket.

Against any other opposition than Penrith I’d say try and hold him at least until Grant/Finucane return, but with their defence he may struggle again and is probably a sell to someone like Mitch Barnett.

Christian Welch turned a corner despite the wet conditions against the Eels, scoring 66 points with 41 tackles, 12 runs and an offload, again in 51 minutes.

I wouldn’t be buying, but owners can hold fire on any trade plans as he should rise to $500k+ in time.

Don’t be surprised to see him play 55-60 minutes this week, possibly at the expense of a few to Brandon Smith.

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DRAGONS V SEA EAGLES

Friday, 6pm, WIN Stadium, Wollongong

Dragons: 1. Matthew Dufty 2. Cody Ramsey 3. Jack Bird 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Corey Norman 7. Ben Hunt 8. Blake Lawrie 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Josh Kerr 12. Tariq Sims 13. Tyrell Fuimaono

Bench: 14. Poasa Faamausili 15. Trent Merrin 16. Daniel Alvaro 17. Brayden Wiliame

Reserves: 18. Adam Clune 19. Kaide Ellis 20. Jackson Ford 21. Jordan Pereira

Analysis: Ben Hunt is proving a super POD scoring 116 points to sit with an average of 95PPG and a -35 breakeven.

The Dragons face the Sea Eagles this week in another enticing match up.

Owners of any under-performing mid-range halfbacks such as Chanel Harris-Tavita (now injured long term) could cash in on a trade if they choose.

Best case he remains a great POD, worst case you make money then move him on.

He’s also an option at hooker and has a breakeven slightly higher than Mahoney, but has a ton in his rolling average for an extra week.

Tyrell Fuimaono’s minutes dropped from 60 to 47 this week which is still decent.

He has a breakeven of -6 and should make nice coin, it’d be lovely for owners to see him cross the stripe this week.

I’d be hesitant to play in 17s, but he’s solid enough for struggling sides.

Daniel Alvaro pumped out 48 minutes for 74 points including 50 in base against the Cowboys.

He’s just $255k and has a breakeven of -23 and is a great trade target, perhaps more so than Ryan James as his higher score will sit in his rolling average a week longer, although I do likes James’ dual 2RF-FRF status.

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Sea Eagles: 1. Dylan Walker 2. Jason Saab 3. Brad Parker 4. Moses Suli 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Kieran Foran 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Martin Taupau 11. Jack Gosiewski 12. Josh Schuster 13. Jake Trbojevic

Bench: 14. Cade Cust 15. Morgan Boyle 16. Sean Keppie 17. Josh Aloiai

Reserves: 18. Tevita Funa 19. Morgan Harper 20. Toafofoa Sipley 21. Christian Tuipulotu

Analysis: Jason Saab managed 29 points to avoid a major price fall.

He and the entire Manly side finally get an easier fixture this week, hopefully in dry conditions.

I’ll be holding, but won’t be playing him in my 17 at any stage. If you don’t own the likes of Bailey Simonsson or Daine Laurie I’d understand the trade, but hang tight otherwise.

Daly Cherry-Evans has a breakeven of 126 and should be very cheap in a few week’s time, although we’ll want to see the side perform far better before considering him for our backup halfback spots.

Commiserations to anyone who brought Andrew Davey this week following his early injury against the Rabbitohs.

With Curtis Sironen out for an extended period he had a big minute role locked in on the edge and would have been super popular this week, a huge blow, ah the joys of SuperCoach!

Cheapie Josh Schuster will incredibly start on the edge, he’s a massive watch this week, but don’t go early.

There are far better options than Lachy Croker and Marty Taupau so don’t bother.

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RABBITOHS v ROOSTERS

Friday, 8.05pm, Stadium Australia, Sydney

Rabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Dane Gagai 4. Campbell Graham 5. Josh Mansour 6. Cody Walker 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Thomas Burgess 9. Damien Cook 10. Tevita Tatola 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Cameron Murray

Bench: 14. Benji Marshall 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Patrick Mago 17. Jai Arrow

Reserves: 18. Jacob Host 19. Tautau Moga 20. Troy Dargan 21. Stephen Marsters

Analysis: Those who sold Damien Cook will be filthy following his ton in the wet, although that pain will be eased big time if the Roosters defensive unit keep him at bay this week.

After this clash, the Bunnies draw opens up big time with games against the Dogs, Broncos, Tigers and Titans, so factor Cody Walker into your plans asap as he has a few tons in him in that run, potentially large ones at that.

Cam Murray is ticking along okay with a 58.5PPG average despite the tough Storm encounter and wet weather against Manly.

He played 74 minutes in Round 1, then 80 against Manly, massive for SuperCoach.

Attacking stats could come thick and fast during that easier run, so don’t dare sell, and consider him next week.

Jai Arrow scored a very solid 56 points in 51 minutes to sit with a breakeven of 37.

He has to start for this side very soon, and I suspect it’ll be on the edge, I wouldn’t be surprised if he did come game day. Plenty will struggle to squeeze him in this week with more pressing trades, but he shouldn’t make too much cash and will be very affordable again next week.

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Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Josh Morris 4. Joseph Manu 5. Brett Morris 6. Lachlan Lam 7. Luke Keary 8. Lindsay Collins 9. Freddy Lussick 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Angus Crichton 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Isaac Liu

Bench: 14. Victor Radley 15. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 16. Nat Butcher 17. Daniel Suluka-Fifita

Reserves: 18. Drew Hutchinson 19. Matt Ikuvalu 20. Sam Walker 21. Fletcher Baker

Analysis: Another week, another Teddy ton, fair dinkum… He’s $843k and has a breakeven of 16, freak!

Brett Morris has started the year in unbelievable fashion, averaging 130PPG which now leaves him with a breakeven of -42.

With games against the Warriors and Sharks after this week the tries could continue to come.

My only knock is that you’re buying him for the season, so the breakeven is largely irrelevant because you’re not exactly saving money, so perhaps there’s more pressing trades?

Nonetheless, clearly he is a huge POD option for anyone keen, but he won’t face an edge of Leilua, Brooks, Leilua every week.

Luke Keary backed up his opening round 70 with 123 against the Tigers.

At 9% ownership he’s a massive POD in that difficult reserve halfback role we’re all trying to fill.

This week presents a much tougher essay, but with the nice run coming up he could have plenty of big scores in him as the very dominant playmaker in the halves.

Lindsay Collins’ minutes dropped from 62 to 51 this week following last week’s injuries, he still scored well with 75 points and now has a breakeven of 3.

He had 49 in base and a try-assist and linebreak assist to bolster his score. He’s a decent trade in option, but I think there’s probably more pressing trades.

Siosiua Taukeiaho owners would have been relieved to see the big fella increase his minutes from 43 to 54, although his base was still only 42.

Expect him to play similar if not more time this week against the rivals South Sydney.

He’s scoring well thanks to his goal-kicking duties, but his workrate hasn’t been great by his previous standards.

Still a very strong buy, but I’d probably prefer Junior Paulo of the two.

I wanted Sitili Tupouniua so badly last week but couldn’t quite afford him.

His 43BPG is pretty ordinary for an 80 minute back-rower, but his attacking upside in this rampant Roosters outfit is immense as evidenced by two tries thus far.

He has nine tacklebreaks in two games and a breakeven of -18. He won’t score every week, but he looks a mighty good buy at just $411k.

I don’t see him as a keeper, but he’ll be a great stepping stone to a gun 2RF.

Those who held Angus Crichton will be rewarded by their decision over the next month.

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RAIDERS v WARRIORS

Saturday, 3pm, GIO Stadium, Canberra

Raiders: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Curtis Scott 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. George Williams 8. Josh Papalii 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Dunamis Lui 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Joseph Tapine

Bench: 14. Siliva Havili 15. Ryan Sutton 16. Sia Soliola 17. Ryan James

Reserves: 18. Sam Williams 19. Tom Starling 20. Caleb Aekins 21. Sebastian Kris

Analysis: Bailey Simonsson only scored 29 against Cronulla in the wet and now has a breakeven of 2 and is an obvious hold.

Jarrod Croker returns at centre, pushing the in-form Seb Kris out of the squad which is a relief for the masses who own Bailey Simonsson.

George Williams is averaging 71PPG and has been an excellent POD halfback for anyone who jumped on, but will lose the goak-kicking with Croker’s return.

Josh Papalii is only averaging 45PPG in 49MPG and is a sell. He’ll be a big play down the track as his minutes rise.

Josh Hodgson scored 58 with a try-assist in 80 minutes. He’s only averaging 36BPG which is poor for an 80 minute hooker.

I’ll likely hold as I already own Jayden Brailey, but a move to Jacob Liddle (which I’m considering) or Reed Mahoney makes complete sense.

Upcoming games against the Warriors and Titans are fairly enticing, so hopefully he finds more of those attacking stats.

Hudson Young is an excellent POD at $474k and is owned by just 5% of teams.

He’s averaging 77PPG, with 48BPG, leaving him with a breakeven of just 8.

More than anything, he looks dynamic on field and could see some serious cash rises before deciding whether or not he’s a season-long keeper, although it’s unlikely.

Despite his form, Joe Tapine played just 41 minutes again this week.

He scored 42 points, and with his Round 1 ton dropping out of his 3RA after this week he’ll probably lose cash soon with a current breakeven of 46.

I’d be tempted to cut to someone like Barnett or Young this week, but it can wait a week for another look at minutes if tempted.

Ryan James surpassed all expectation on return from injury, averaging 40MPG across the opening rounds.

In that time, he’s had a try and two linebreaks to bolster his 39BPG.

More appealing to me is his dual FRF-2RF availability that left me, and I’m sure others, short last week in the pack with Crichton and Lodge out.

That flexibility is so key, so I’ll likely be bringing him in this week. I don’t expect the world as he won’t get those attacking stats every week, but he’s hard to ignore.

If Stuart ever goes back to a utility back or Tom Starling at 14 it’ll only help him.

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Warriors: 1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 2. David Fusitu’a 3. Adam Pompey 4. Peta Hiku 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Sean O’Sullivan 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wade Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Eliesa Katoa 12. Bayley Sironen 13. Tohu Harris

Bench: 14. Jazz Tevaga 15. Ben Murdoch-Masila 16. Leeson Ah Mau 17. Jack Murchie

Reserves: 18. Tom Ale 20. Marcelo Montoya 21. Paul Turner 22. Kane Evans

Analysis: David Fusitu’a looms as a sell if you don’t already own someone like Laurie or Simonsson, but otherwise you can hold and wait till he starts bagging a few pies. Clearly he’s an avoid at all costs to plays in 17s though with an average of 23PPG.

Kodi Nikorima (34) struggled this week and is probably a sell to Ben Hunt or even George Williams.

However, the wet weather impacted that score significantly, so don’t feel like you have to sell just yet if you like what you’re seeing with the eye.

Chanel Harris-Tavita (28) is out with a lengthy injury and is an obvious sell.

Addin Fonua-Blake dropped from 57 to 48 minutes this week without the injuries.

He also left the field with a niggle of his own.

He looks good, but as a result of that I’d avoid for the time being and go towards Paulo or TKO if after a premium FRF.

Bayley Sironen only played 39 minutes and is an avoid, although with a breakeven of 14 you can hold one week if needed to earn some cash and get a look just in case he gets significantly more minutes against the Raiders.

Tohu Harris has played 80 and 73 minutes across the opening rounds.

Despite the big benches being named, he’s clearly a key part of the pack and will hopefully continue on with big game time.

He’s averaging 76PPG with a monster 63BPG playing across the middle and edge and is a rock solid trade in, especially now that there are concerns over Matterson following another HIA who I had well ahead of Tohu.

Leeson Ah Mau scored 47 points in a strong 46 minutes in Round 2.

He’s just $291k and sits with a breakeven of -16 and is a decent buy.

Sean O’Sullivan replaces the injured CHT, and at $231k as a halfback looks a great option for Sam Walker owners.

The question though is whether you pull it this week and bypass one of the many cash grab options available elsewhere?

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BRONCOS v BULLDOGS

Saturday, 5.30pm, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Broncos: 1. Jamayne Isaako 2. Xavier Coates 3. Herbie Farnworth 4. Tesi Niu 5. David Mead 6. Anthony Milford 7. Brodie Croft 8. Tevita Pangai Junior 9. Jake Turpin 10. Thomas Flegler 11. Alex Glenn 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan

Bench: 14. John Asiata 15. Rhys Kennedy 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Ben Te’o

Reserves: 18. Tom Dearden 19. Richard Kennar 21. Cory Paix 22. Corey Oates

Analysis: Tesi Niu delivered what we knew he was capable of with 92 points leaving him with a -48 breakeven.

Even better is that his big score came in Round 2, so it’ll be in his rolling average for an extra week, get him in asap. He’s also a decent play against the Dogs at Suncorp.

After looking sharp in Round 1, Anthony Milford did very Anthony Milford things in SuperCoach circles with just 18 points, ew.

For all those that jumped on David Mead, don’t say you weren’t warned.

He scored 21 with just 19 in base and now has a -19 breakeven.

When the 77 from Round 1 drops out his breakeven could skyrocket. It doesn’t mean he can’t do well this week against the Dogs, just that he was very far from the lock we expected.

I’d be hesitant buying now and would likely avoid unless your side is very well set up already.

Tevita Pangai Jnr went huge again with 100 points in a better looking 52 minutes.

Still not as many as we’d like, but he’s a far safer buy with that game time. He had 19 runs and three offloads despite damp conditions, animal.

There’s stack of risk and probably even more reward in the purchase, so I’ll leave that in your capable hands.

Jordan Riki went very well with 81 points, including an immense 61 in base!

Everyone should already own, but if you don’t for some reason, get him in.

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Bulldogs: 1. Corey Allan 2. Nick Meaney 3. Will Hopoate 4. Nick Cotric 5. Tuipulotu Katoa 6. Jake Averillo 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Ofahiki Ogden 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Jack Hetherington 11. Adam Elliott 12. Corey Waddell 13. Josh Jackson

Bench: 14. Sione Katoa 15. Renouf Atoni 16. Joe Stimson 17. Dylan Napa

Reserves: 19. Dean Britt 20. Chris Smith 21. Lachlan Lewis 22. Ava Seumanufagai

Analysis: Not much happening here, Jake Averillo is a sell, as is Will Hopoate.

On Hoppa, his 39BPG is unbelievable for a centre, it’s just a shame for SuperCoach purposes that he’s at a club that struggles to find points.

Ofahiki Ogden only played 25 minutes which was seriously disappointing after playing 51 in Round 1.

There’s slow burning cash cow potential, but a trade to any of Leniu, Utoikamanu, Alvaro or James looks a smart play.

Jack Hetherington again played great minutes with 54, but his 0.61PPM is horrendous for a prop. Sell!

There’s probably more enticing options, but Josh Jackson is a serious play having played 80 minutes at lock for 75 points with an astronomical 75 in base!

He’s only $439k and is punching out keeper numbers since moving to the middle, leaving him with a breakeven of 19.

I have other issues and targets, so if he plays 80 in the middle again I’ll look to pick up next week at $30-40k more.

With RFM out long term, this bodes well for Jackson’s minutes, and also makes Corey Waddell a close watch for the next few weeks as a potential mid-ranger.

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EELS v SHARKS

Saturday, 7.35pm, Bankwest Stadium, Parramatta

Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Tom Opacic 4. Marata Niukore 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Nathan Brown

Bench: 14. Oregon Kaufusi 15. Keegan Hipgrave 16. Will Smith 17. Ray Stone

Reserves: 18. Jordan Rankin 19. Haze Dunster 29. David Hollis 21. Joey Lussick

Analysis: Blake Ferguson was always going to struggle against Melbourne in the wet, but he still managed 32 in base which is exactly what we wanted to see.

He has a -3 breakeven, so you can buy this week, but with his 92 set to drop out of his 3RA after this week he shouldn’t make ridiculous amounts of money.

You should be able to focus on more pressing trades this week, then pick him up for $30-40k or so more in a fortnight if keen, also giving us a greater look.

Dylan Brown based a monumental 44 against the Storm, my word! He had one try-assist, but largely the attacking stats have eluded him in the opening weeks.

He has a breakeven of 97, and while a move to Walker/Munster/Luai probably makes sense, he hasn’t done himself much harm in my eyes.

Junior Paulo crossed for his second try and linebreak in two weeks against Melbourne.

His 47BPG in 58MPG is strong, and he’ll continue to free the arm in drier conditions.

He’s a strong trade target this week with a breakeven of 11.

Reed Mahoney is on a tear, averaging 108PPG, with 58BPG, leaving him with a -52 breakeven.

Why are all the best buys at hooker?!?!?!

I’m struggling with who to fit in, but Mahoney could well be a downgrade to someone like Cook or Grant in a month’s time, if not being a keeper himself.

I prefer him to Jacob Liddle if you have the cash. His job security is 100% secure, while there remain question marks around Liddle.

Isaiah Papali’i is an option having replaced Ryan Matterson in the starting side, but I’m leaning towards other back-rowers.

I’ll be cashing in on Matterson with a big breakeven and price tag.

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Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Josh Dugan 4. Connor Tracey 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Chad Townsend 8. Braden Hamlin-Uele 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Aaron Woods 11. Briton Nikora 12. Wade Graham 13. Toby Rudolf

Bench: 14. Teig Wilton 15. Aiden Tolman 16. Jack Williams 17. Billy Magoulias

Reserves: 18. Mawene Hiroti 19. Nene Macdonald 20. Andrew Fifita 21. Braydon Trindall

Analysis: Not a lot of note here, Matt Moylan flopped in awful conditions in the rain against Canberra with just 20 points.

Normally I’d say he’s a hold because he looks decent and is dirt cheap, but with the plethora of hooking options available it’s a must to get Connor Watson to 5/8 to free up that extra hooking position, and it’s at Moylan’s expense.

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KNIGHTS v TIGERS

Sunday, 4.05pm, McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

Knights: 1. Tex Hoy 2. Starford To’a 3. Enari Tuala 4. Bradman Best 5. Hymel Hunt 6. Kurt Mann 7. Mitchell Pearce 8. David Klemmer 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Mitchell Barnett 13. Connor Watson

Bench: 14. Sauaso Sue 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Josh King 17. Brodie Jones

Reserves: 18. Gehamat Shibasaki 19. Pasami Saulo 20. Dominic Young 21. Simi Sasagi

Analysis: Tex Hoy is going okay for anyone who jumped on and now has a -8 breakeven. While it seems crazy, I’d probably sell this week, move Watson to 5/8 and get in one of the amazing hooking options available.

Bradman Best was sensational in Round 2, scoring 95 points with 37 in base!

When KP comes back he’ll continues to excel. I can’t fit him in at $552k, but he’s a serious POD.

Jayden Brailey crossed for a try in Round 2 and now averages 88PPG with 57BPG and a breakeven of -54.

He’s near impossible to fault from a SuperCoach perspective at just $356k.

As tipped, David Klemmer’s minutes dropped big time to just 51 in Round 2, meaning the likes of Paulo and TPJ are better options as premium FRFs.

Ditto Daniel Saifiti who played 50 minutes for 46 points. His 128 is about to drop out of his 3RA and his breakeven will fly up.

Connor Watson has come off the bench in the opening rounds and is still averaging 57PPG in 52MPG.

His injury return likely impacts his move in Round 1, while the wet weather would have been the factor in Round 2 with the game to be played through the middle and far less expansively.

Hopefully he actually starts this week! Regardless, he’s shown he can still score well from the bench.

Mitch Barnett continued his strong start to the season with 85 points, including 53 in base.

He was super impressive with the boot, and if he maintains it in coming weeks he won’t relinquish the kicking duties to Kalyn Ponga when he returns.

This in my eyes turns him from a reliable scorer/cash grab to a genuine 2RF keeper, especially with the Matterson concern now.

With a breakeven of -4 he’s a great target this week, especially for anyone looking to offload Matto.

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Tigers: 1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Tommy Talau 4. James Roberts 5. AJ Kepaoa 6. Adam Doueihi 7. Luke Brooks 8. Zane Musgrove 9. Jacob Liddle 10. James Tamou 11. Luke Garner 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Alex Twal

Bench: 14. Joe Ofahengaue 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Stefano Utoikamanu 17. Moses Mbye

Reserves: 18. Michael Chee Kam 19. Joseph Leilua 20. Russell Packer 21. Alex Seyfarth

Analysis: Daine Laurie was excellent in a Tigers side that was belted by the Roosters.

Despite the scoreline, he scored 73 points with an okay 27 in base, get him in.

As the opposition starts to ease in strength in coming weeks he’ll become an even more reliable play in 17s if you weren’t already.

David Nofoaluma scored 33 and will likely see some decent price drops, hopefully we can get him at around $500-550k in a month with a few more low scores, I won’t hold my breath though.

Luke Brooks lost the goal-kicking duties to the returning Adam Doueihi and in turn lost any minor interest I had in him.

Jacob Liddle joins the list of stellar hooking options with another strong score of 66 to leave him with a breakeven of -52.

There’s still so many questions though. He had a HIA in the loss so we still didn’t get an accurate gauge of his minutes.

The Tigers have been belted twice in a row, so is Madge tempted to bring in Jake Simpkin to the bench?

It’s tough, but Liddle has impressed regardless and is very enticing at just $247k so he’s hard to knock as a buy despite the question marks.

Stefano Utoikamanu scored 40 points in 38 minutes, maybe he won’t be as slow a burn as we’d anticipated!

Joe O has been benched in a blow for his owners, although it may not have a huge impact on his minutes.

Joey Leilua has been dropped for the returning James Roberts.

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COWBOYS v TITANS

Sunday, 6.15pm, QCB Stadium, Townsville

Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Murray Taulagi 3. Esan Marsters 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Michael Morgan 7. Jake Clifford 8. Francis Molo 9. Reece Robson 10. Jordan McLean 11. Mitchell Dunn 12. Coen Hess 13. Reuben Cotter

Bench: 14. Jake Granville 15. Josh McGuire 16. Corey Jensen 17. Lachlan Burr

Reserves: 18. Justin O’Neill 19. Shane Wright 20. Peter Hola 21. Ben Hampton

Analysis: There’s nothing that takes my interest at the Cowboys.

Reuben Cotter is a watch over the next week or two while starting at lock in Jason Taumalolo’s absence.

Val Holmes kicked goals over Jake Clifford against the Dragons. If he returns to fullback and continues to kick I’ll be poaching him asap at CTW at a discounted rate.

Embed from Getty Images

Titans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Anthony Don 3. Phillip Sami 4. Patrick Herbert 5. Corey Thompson 6. Tanah Boyd 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Jarrod Wallace 9. Mitch Rein 10. Moeaki Fotuaika 11. Kevin Proctor 12. David Fifita 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui

Bench: 14. Tyrone Peachey 15. Sam Lisone 16. Jaimin Jolliffe 17. Erin Clark

Reserves: 18. Beau Fermor 19. Herman Ese’ese 20. Sam McIntyre 21. Sam Stone

Analysis: AJ Brimson scored just 18 and is a sell to Teddy/Papy.

Jamal Fogarty is averaging an okay 45PPG so far, leaving him with a breakeven of 57.

I’d be tempted to trade to Hunt for the cash grab, but there’s probably more pressing trades in your side.

David Fifita belted his old club with a double and 105 points. His base of 39 was very poor for an 80 minute player, but what he lacks there he makes up in attacking upside.

With a breakeven of 30 I’d say we’ve seen him at the cheapest price he’ll be for many years.

Tino Fa’asuamaleaui only played 53 minutes which is concerning, scoring an okay 46 points in that time.

I think he’s a hold, if your team somehow has no other dramas you could make a case to trade him.

Tanah Boyd replaces the injured Ash Taylor in the halves.

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SUPERCOACH TERMINOLOGY KEY

MPG = Minutes per game

PPG = Points per game

PPM= Points per minute

BPG = Base per game (point accrued in tackles + runs + missed tackles)

POD = Point of difference

3RA = Three round average

5RA = Five round average

BREAKEVEN (B/E) = The score a player must record to earn a price rise.

*Please note all our stats are taken from the geniuses at nrlsupercoachstats.com

9 Responses to “Squad Breakdown: Team insights, Round 3”

    • Hey mate, poddy is recorded Tuesday, a lot plays out between then and the round beginning. I was always holding Lam, then actually changed when Matterson got his HIA and I had to hold Angus Crichton. So it was a Friday afternoon decision.

        • When you had to play Ogden in starting front-row with Crichton and Lodge both out it was a fair play. I spoke about it and my plans in the subscriber special podcast recorded Thursday afternoon with updated thoughts.

          • The plan was to avoid playing a cheapie at prop. So it was going to be Crichton – Sitili, then Lodge to SST, making a far better 17. Again, all explained in the Thursday podcast…

            Matterson went down Thursday night, so trades changed again because I didn’t want to go without Matterson and Crichton this week.

            Do you lock trades in on Tuesday afternoon then never change?

          • Dante silva

            Crichton was only suspended for 1 week. If he was out for more than 1 week, then your logic makes sense

            I get it though. You came 2nd so you cant help everyone at your own expense

  1. That’s a very harsh comment Dante, I’m surprised every week when I listen to the podcast that all the team tell you pod’s that they are looking at which they could easily keep to themselves.
    The above makes perfect sense, Tim was going to sell Crichton last week and run with only Matterson this week when Roosters play the Rabbits. Therefore he would have 1 gun 2ndRF in Matterson but not Crichton, however when Matterson got injured he changed his mind as he didn’t want to go this round without 1 of the gun 2ndRF and so he held Crichton. He knew if he sold Crichton last week he wouldn’t bring in this week as we mostly need our trades to buy players with low BE.

    • Dante silva

      Hi Stuart,

      Why would you sell Crichton who was suspended for one week?

      If he was out for a long time, I understand but its certainly a waste of a trade given he is back this week.

      You cop the cheapie forward because its not worth wasting 2 trades

      If he said, i went early on brailey to save trades next week then i get it. But the fact he uses selling crichton as the reason which was never a sell is what baffles me

      Anyway play on guys, going around in circles

      Good luck to all this season

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