It’s important also not to make hasty trades. Don’t go chasing last week’s points based on a one game sample size, likewise, don’t go trading players you were high on all pre-season unless they’ve had a clear role change you didn’t expect (e.g. Api Koroisau’s 48 minutes).
You may be forced to go early on a couple of players who went okay in order to utilise the four trades, but ultimately, have some faith in your choices.
There’s also a stack of rain predicted for Sydney over the weekend which will host the majority of games, so scores may not be as high as expected if it comes.
This may mean playing a solid 45-50 point forward on your bench rather than a back who could go very low in the wet, anyway, monitor the weather throughout the week.
Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Tom Opacic 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown
Bench: 14. Oregon Kaufusi 15. Isaiah Papali’i 16. Will Smith 17. Marata Niukore
Reserves: 18. Keegan Hipgrave 19. Haze Dunster 19. Ray Stone 20. Joey Lussick
Analysis: After making a case for him the entire pre-season, I was very relieved to see Blake Ferguson deliver in Round 1 with 92 points.
He remains a great buy at great value, however with a very tough game against Melbourne in what is likely to be wet conditions in Sydney, it could be worth waiting a week to jump on in case he’s nullified by their defence.
It’s fine to go early and grab this week, just don’t expect big points, it be more of a move to keep options open for next week’s trades.
The shift of Dylan Brown from the left to right edge will do Fergy Ferg wonders this season.
While Brown struggled score-wise, he had a ridiculous 39 in base!
Anyone who went Clint Gutherson should be jumping ship to whoever they don’t own out of Teddy and Papy.
Reed Mahoney went bonkers with 134 points to his name thanks to 51 tackles, a try and try-assist.
However, he’s fairly expensive at $478k and could easily go sub 50 against the Storm.
If this happens, the big score will be out of his rolling average very quickly and that breakeven will rise quickly.
Plus, there’s plenty of decent options at hooker, so don’t jump the gun this week if you are interested.
Junior Paulo, animal! His 60 minutes was perhaps a little less than we’d hoped, but it’s still strong.
His 100 point effort was inflated by a late try and linebreak, but he also had five offloads and looked very capable despite the quicker game speed.
He looms as a very high upside buy this week.
There’s a big watch on Isaiah Papali’i this week who was sensational off the bench in 56 minutes.
He scored 64 points, but he’s a little awkwardly priced at $408k, so I definitely would not be jumping the gun on him.
Barring injuries, it’s hard to see him starting, so I’d be more inclined to go with Jai Arrow for a bit more coin.
Titans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Anthony Don 3. Phillip Sami 4. Patrick Herbert 5. Corey Thompson 6. Ashley Taylor 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Jarrod Wallace 9. Mitch Rein 10. Moeaki Fotuaika 11. Kevin Proctor 12. David Fifita 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
Bench: 14. Tyrone Peachey 15. Sam Lisone 16. Jaimin Jolliffe 17. Erin Clark
Reserves: 18. Beau Fermor 19. Herman Ese’ese 20. Sam McIntyre 21. Tanah Boyd
Analysis: Brian Kelly struggled with just 47 points, however his owners would have been thrilled to see him smash out 37 in base!
Unfortunately he was injured in the loss and is expected to miss three weeks.
A trade to Brian To’o looks a strong play this week.
Jamal Fogarty wasn’t great with 40 points, but he looked promising enough and is definitely worth another week.
David Fifita scored 60 points in 70 minutes despite being ill in the week leading into the game, that’s very encouraging. He’ll be an 80 minute player from this week.
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui owners would have been thrilled to see him punch out 64 minutes on his Titans debut for 60 points.
Playing in the middle, with his attacking upside, that’s big game time.
He had 52 points in base, look out…
A late try-assist saved AJ Brimson’s score (64), however I’d be going to either of Teddy or Papy if I owned.
Broncos: 1. Jamayne Isaako 2. Xavier Coates 3. Herbie Farnworth 4. Tesi Niu 5. David Mead 6. Anthony Milford 7. Brodie Croft 8. Tevita Pangai Junior 9. Jake Turpin 10. Thomas Flegler 11. Alex Glenn 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan
Bench: 14. John Asiata 15. Rhys Kennedy 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Ben Te’o
Reserves: 18. Tom Dearden 19. Richard Kennar 21. Cory Paix 22. Corey Oates
Analysis: David Mead scored 77 points on return to Brisbane and will generate interest at just $230k.
He based very well with 33 in Round 1, I’m not convinced he’ll maintain this as he’s traditionally had low output in the past. When he doesn’t accrue attacking stats he could go very low. If he can maintain it, look out!
I’ll definitely be waiting a week on him, then buying if he goes big again.
Anthony Milford looked decent, scoring 69 points with two try-assists.
At $304k he’s another to monitor this week, but definitely do not go early.
The minutes of the pack were inflated significantly due to the injuries to Matt Lodge and Xavier Coates.
I’d be tempted to hold Lodge as his hamstring strain isn’t as bad as expected, meaning he’ll likely miss 2-4 weeks, but I’ll struggle to as he was a starting FRF for me.
If you already have two guns FRF’s I can see a case, but he’s probably a sell.
Another concern is that Payne Haas will likely be available around about when he returns and will eat into his minutes.
Bulldogs: 1. Corey Allan 2. Nick Meaney 3. Will Hopoate 4. Nick Cotric 5. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 6. Jake Averillo 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Ofahiki Ogden 9. Sione Katoa 10. Jack Hetherington 11. Adam Elliott 12. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 13. Josh Jackson
Analysis: Dylan Walker(18) and Jason Saab (11) failed as cheapies, but they weren’t alone.
Dylan Walker is probably a sell, but if you want in for the long haul he should see price rises eventually, but how long?
Saab is a hold despite the rubbish output, tries will come eventually, and at $233k he’s not taking up much cap space.
As warned all last week, he’s not a play in your 17!
DCE scored just 28, I’m hoping he struggles with Manly’s brutal early season draw and can be picked up in that tough reserve halfback spot for under $500k down the track, hopefully with goal-kicking duties.
I was stunned to see Lachlan Croker play 80 minutes, but despite the game time he scored just 35 points. Expect Cade Cust to spell him at hooker after bagging a hat-trick in reserves last week.
Marty Taupau didn’t get the additional time we’d hoped for in Addin Fonua-Blake’s absence, playing just 47 minutes for 47 points.
Jake Trbojevic played 80 minutes for a solid 61 points, but I still much prefer any of Matterson/Crichton/Murray/Fifita due to their higher ceiling.
Andrew Davey only played 35 minutes for 34 points, he’s been named to start in the back-row this week, which is frustrating it wasn’t a week earlier!
There’s a massive watch on his output and minutes this week as he could be anything, but it’s fairly risky going early despite the obvious tempation.
Analysis: At halftime against Melbourne, those who picked Latrell Mitchell over Papenhuyzen would’ve been ready to throw in the towel for SuperCoach 2021.
By fulltime, they’d have been strutting around with their chest out.
Well played, he went huge in the second half to score 117 points against the best defence in the NRL, imagine what he could do against weaker opposition, and if Adam Reynolds were to go down injured giving him the kicking duties.
Singly-handedly the most impressive thing for owners was his 15 runs, it’s exactly what we wanted to see.
As a result, the attacking stats unsurprisingly came in the form of nine tacklebreaks, four offloads, one try, one assist and two linebreaks.
For the record, I’m still firmly in the corner of a Teddy/Papy fullback combo, but so far so good from Latrell.
Alex Johnston is a serious POD on that lethal edge, notching 75 points with two tries to his name.
The base isn’t great at all, so he’ll have some low weeks, but there could be some monster scores in between.
As a Cody Walker owner, I’d have taken 50 points in Round 1 in Melbourne.
He belted that expectation, knocking out 82 points in a strong performance.
He could go big this week against the Sea Eagles, but he then faces the Roosters the following week (although he put 200 on them last year).
The Bunnies have a tremendous draw from Round 4 onwards, so make plans to get him in by then latest.
Campbell Graham may struggle to match his average last year while playing on the ‘weaker’ right edge of South Sydney.
Josh Mansour has been dropped in favour of young gun Jaxson Paulo.
As suspected, Damien Cook’s scoring suffered due to the form of the blokes outside him.
I think he’ll dish plenty of early ball to Latrell and Cody which will hurt his running game significantly.
His 36 point shocker was against Melbourne, so don’t be too disheartened.
There’s no harm in giving him another week, but I’d be tempted to downgrade to one of the cheaper hooking options that appeal to free up cash elsewhere.
Cam Murray may have only scored 53, but like Cody, I’m definitely taking that against Melbourne.
In great news, he played 73 minutes! He had 52 in base, with 45 tackles and just eight runs, not great.
He’ll bounce back with attacking stats against far inferior sides.
Jacob Host failed to deliver on his expectation, getting a solid 64 minutes, but scoring just 33 points. He’s been dropped in a huge blow to anyone who jumped on.
Koloamatangi starts in his place, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jai Arrow start come game day. If not this week, then surely next week once back to full fitness.
He may also start for Tom Burgess if he isn’t cleared for a return.
Arrow was immense and changed the game when coming onto the field last week.
He scored 70 points in just 45 minutes, with 24 tackles, 19 runs and five tackle breaks, beast!
He looks back to his best and will again be a SuperCoach force with bigger minutes if he stays fit.
Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Esan Marsters 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Michael Morgan 7. Jake Clifford 8. Francis Molo 9. Reece Robson 10. Jordan McLean 11. Mitchell Dunn 12. Coen Hess 13. Jason Taumalolo
Tigers: 1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. James Roberts 4. Joseph Leilua 5. AJ Kepaoa 6. Adam Doueihi 7. Luke Brooks 8. James Tamou 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Joe Ofahengaue 11. Luke Garner 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Alex Twal
Bench: 14. Moses Mbye 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Stefano Utoikamanu 17. Tommy Talau
Reserves: 18. Russell Packer 19. Alex Seyfarth 20. Michael Chee Kam 21. Jock Madden
Analysis: Daine Laurie made a decent start, scoring 47 points with a decent 27 in base.
I can see that output increasing with every game in the top grade.
I think he’s a fairly safe CTW play early on in the season, although the Roosters in potentially wet conditions may be the exception.
Despite a stunning try-assist, James Roberts scored just 34 points with 18 in base.
At an awkward $277k I’m not convinced. Owners can hold at the price, non-owners can wait until he jags a big score or two to drop his breakeven.
Luke Brooks scored okay with 56 points, and although he had a nice try-assist for Liddle, I didn’t rate what I saw.
If Adam Doueihi regains the goal-kicking duties this week I’d put a line through Brooks.
If Brooks retains the goal-kicking and manages a respectable score against the Roosters he may warrant some more consideration next week at a slightly enticing $393k.
Luciano Leilua scored 63 with 53 in base and looms as a strong POD option and likely will all season.
Jacob Liddle played 80 minutes and looked okay, with a try and linebreak inflating his score to 71.
He’s obviously a big play at just $247k, but I still have my worries and won’t be considering until next week.
Does Mbye play 20 at hooker off the bench this week? If they get thrashed by the Roosters does Simpkin come into the side?
I’ll watch closely this week, and downgrade Josh Hodgson or Lachlan Lam to him next week if he maintains his appeal.
Surely Mbye and Talau don’t both play from the bench? I fully expect this to change come game day, but if for some reason Madge is playing it straight, it’d be great news for all the Tigers middles, namely Utoikamanu.
Raiders: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Sebastian Kris 4. Curtis Scott 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. George Williams 8. Josh Papalii 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Dunamis Lui 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Joseph Tapine
Bench: 14. Siliva Havili 15. Ryan Sutton 16. Sia Soliola 17. Ryan James
Reserves: 18. Sam Williams 19. Tom Starling 20. Emre Guler 21. Harley Smith-Shields
Analysis: Bailey Simonsson scored 40 and will make some gradual money with his strong job security, but with 15 in base I’d avoid playing in 17s when possible.
Jordan Rapana needed a pair of tries to kick his score to 67 points.
His 11 in base was horrendous, but it will improve.
Even so, at $370k he doesn’t appeal to me much.
If he goes big this week he’d be a possible cash grab next week with Canberra’s nice early draw.
Josh Hodgson scored a horrid 30 with 34 in base despite playing 80 minutes!
Bad signs, but I’m not deterred just yet. I’ll be giving him one more week to prove himself, if he struggles there’s plenty of hooking options to flip him to next week.
Joe Tapine scored 100 in just 42 minutes! His 2.38PPM wasn’t bad at all…
He also had 52 in base in that time which is pretty crazy.
Regardless, with Canberra’s depth in the pack I’m too scared to go near him.
While his minutes will surely increase with his ability, I’m not sure 50 is enough to warrant buying, but I may be wrong. I’ll have a close eye on him this week.
Hudson Young played 80 minutes, scoring 79 points with a try to his name and 50 in base.
He looks very strong out there and is a POD 2RF option at $474k.
Ryan James didn’t look one bit out of place in his first NRL game in years.
He crashed over for a try, scoring 69 points in 41 minutes. He had 34 in base which is only okay.
You’d think he’s done enough to keep that bench spot, but how many minutes will he play, especially when you consider Tapine only played 42 and Dunamis Lui started and played 17.
I think he’s a good buy at $237k, but that 69 will drop out of his rolling average after one week, so I’m waiting to see what he dishes out this week before buying.
No Corey Horsburgh in the squad at all is good news for the likes of Tapine and James, the four forward bench remains a concern though.
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SUPERCOACH TERMINOLOGY KEY
MPG = Minutes per game
PPG = Points per game
PPM= Points per minute
BPG = Base per game (point accrued in tackles + runs + missed
POD = Point of difference
3RA = Three round average
5RA = Five round average
BREAKEVEN (B/E) = The score a player must record to earn a price