Matchups Analysis: Sydney Sixers vs Perth Scorchers

Match-ups are vital to SuperCoach success, luckily Fish has put the work in to find the best ones to target and avoid in Round 17.

Stat analysis

There were mixed results last round from my player matchup data predictions. The match result was perhaps the more important factor, due to the Scorchers winning so heavily.

Nonetheless, Liam Livingstone and Fawad Ahmed both backed up their favourable player matchup stats.

I expect the BBL Final to be a little more evenly contested, even though the Sixers dominated when these teams met in the first round of the finals.

Now onto the player matchups.

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The data favours Steve O’Keefe in the final, with only the Scorchers’ lower-order bats having favourable records against left-arm orthodox bowling. The stats are a little less favourable for fellow left-armer, Ben Dwarshuis, who is classified as left-arm medium by cricmetric.com.

The matchups also look reasonable to me for right-arm quick Sean Abbott, whilst less so for the right-arm medium pacers Carlos Braithwaite, Jackson Bird, Jake Ball and Dan Christian.

Abbott and O’Keefe may be used to target in-form opener Liam Livingstone, perhaps reducing the English allrounders’ appeal as a captaincy option.

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Table 1: Scorchers’ batsman vs opposing bowler type, T20s over the last 3 years (extracted from cricmetric.com)

Versus Player TypeOutsAvgSR
Liam Livingstone
Left-arm Medium444.5124.5
Left-arm Orthodox922.9114.4
Right-arm Fast823149.6
Right-arm Medium3233154.3
All bowling types7729.4143.6
Cameron Bancroft
Left-arm Medium246133.3
Left-arm Orthodox229.5120.4
Right-arm Fast243.5124.3
Right-arm Medium1039.9121.3
All bowling types2536.3121.4
Jason Roy
Left-arm Medium449.2131.3
Left-arm Orthodox1018.8128.8
Right-arm Fast721.9139.1
Right-arm Medium1631.9132.5
All bowling types5027.7131.4
Colin Munro
Left-arm Medium840.4153.8
Left-arm Orthodox1018.7116.1
Right-arm Fast541.4116.9
Right-arm Medium3830.7147
All bowling types8830.4138.8
Josh Inglis
Left-arm Medium177179.1
Left-arm Orthodox326.7170.2
Right-arm Fast426.2136.4
Right-arm Medium1626.6139.7
All bowling types2931.7144.3
Mitch Marsh
Left-arm Medium0215
Left-arm Orthodox21984.4
Right-arm Fast225.5182.1
Right-arm Medium1045.2149.2
All bowling types2433.8137.1
Ashton Turner
Left-arm Medium1819.2123.6
Left-arm Orthodox1726.6125.5
Right-arm Fast1034141.7
Right-arm Medium4233.3130.2
All bowling types11429.6128.8
Aaron Hardie
Left-arm Medium17100
Left-arm Orthodox050
Right-arm Fast1228.6
Right-arm Medium235.5154.3
All bowling types521111.7
Jhye Richardson
Left-arm Medium20.525
Left-arm Orthodox123143.8
Right-arm Fast0123.1
Right-arm Medium350.7176.7
All bowling types923.1147.5

You could also factor in the Sixers’ bowling records vs right/left handers, with Munro the only left-hander in the Scorcher’s batting line-up. This data also favours O’Keefe in particular.

Table 2: Sixers’ bowlers vs opposing batter type, T20s over the last 3 years (extracted from cricmetric.com)

SixersWicketsEconSR
Sean Abbott
Left147.4312.6
Right398.8114.3
Total538.4813.8
Jackson Bird
Left76.8625
Right167.4522.8
Total237.2623.5
Steve O’Keefe
Left137.334.3
Right586.4319.7
Total716.6722.4
Ben Dwarshuis
None06
Left237.0218.5
Right598.4617.1
Total828.0317.5
Carlos Brathwaite
Left269.1717.4
Right498.2517.3
Total758.5717.3
Jake Ball
Left68.923.8
Right289.2914.2
Total349.1815.9

In terms of the Sixers’ batting line-up, the matchups look a little less appealing to me for Fawad Ahmed’s legspin than in the match against the Heat. The Sixers also have a good record against right-arm fast bowlers, perhaps reducing the appeal of Jhye Richardson as a captaincy option.

The Sixers boast a pretty good line-up in general. However, there are a few players the Scorchers could look to target with left-armer Jason Behrendorff (including Josh Philippe, Moises Henriques and Carlos Braithwaite).

Table 3: Sixers’ batsman vs opposing bowler type, T20s over the last 3 years (extracted from cricmetric.com)

Versus Player TypeOutsAvgSR
Josh Phillipe
Left-arm Medium620.3105.2
Right-arm Fast434.2139.8
Right-arm Legbreak927.6162.1
Right-arm Medium1440.2137.7
Right-arm Offbreak251129.1
All bowling types4034.2140.2
James Vince
Left-arm Medium836.4144.8
Right-arm Fast1121.2122.6
Right-arm Legbreak1036.6141.9
Right-arm Medium3033.7135.6
Right-arm Offbreak728.4124.4
All bowling types7931.5134.8
Daniel Hughes
Left-arm Medium337.3134.9
Right-arm Fast1148127.6
Right-arm Legbreak1216.7125.8
Right-arm Medium1334.4129.6
Right-arm Offbreak720.6108.3
All bowling types3930125.5
Moises Henriques
Left-arm Medium419120.6
Right-arm Fast255224.5
Right-arm Legbreak826.1117.4
Right-arm Medium1230.9133.5
Right-arm Offbreak235.5134
All bowling types3329.5131.8
Jordan Silk
Left-arm Medium617164.5
Right-arm Fast241126.2
Right-arm Legbreak43794.3
Right-arm Medium1138.3137.1
Right-arm Offbreak158103.6
All bowling types2734.8125.2
Dan Christian
Left-arm Medium453.8177.7
Right-arm Fast545.2159.2
Right-arm Legbreak644.5134.2
Right-arm Medium3229.5168.1
Right-arm Offbreak615.596.9
All bowling types6331.1150
Carlos Brathwaite
Left-arm Medium216123.1
Right-arm Fast74.390.9
Right-arm Legbreak414100
Right-arm Medium1918.2155.4
Right-arm Offbreak045.8
All bowling types4012.8121.2
Sean Abbott
Left-arm Medium217141.7
Right-arm Fast050
Right-arm Legbreak46.286.2
Right-arm Medium410142.9
Right-arm Offbreak11493.3
All bowling types1210.4113.6

The Sixers are another team with just the one left-hander in their batting line-up (Dan Hughes). This favours Jhye Richardson and Liam Livingstone (if he bowls).

It’s also worth noting that I haven’t updated the table below since the Heat match. A number of Scorchers were successful against the Heat’s right-hand dominant batting line-up. Notably, this included Jason Behrendorff, who snared the key wickets of Chris Lynn and Joe Denly.

Table 4: Scorchers’ bowlers vs opposing batter type, T20s over the last 3 years (extracted from cricmetric.com)

ScorchersWicketsEconSR
Jason Behrendorff
Left277.2317.9
Right547.1519.4
Total817.1718.9
Jhye Richardson
Left157.4320.4
Right527.7215.5
Total677.6416.6
Andrew Tye
Left248.4718.5
Right708.1617.4
Total948.2417.7
Fawad Ahmed
Switch hits13.65
Left397.219.2
Right886.9818.6
Total1287.0418.7
Aaron Hardie
Left77.868.3
Right28.8194
Total98.5927.3
Liam Livingstone
Switch hits07.71
Left78.4320.4
Right367.7911.8
Total437.9513.4

Finally, there’s five players of interest who I’ve decided to analyse for direct player matchups, being Philippe, Abbott, Dwarshuis, Richardson and Behrendorff.

Phillipe’s record looks solid enough, although his record against Behrendorff backs up the earlier data vs left-arm mediums.  

Table 5 – Josh Philippe player matchups (career T20s, extracted from cricmetric.com)

Versus PlayerRunsOutsAvgSR
AJ Tye500238.1
Fawad Ahmed57157172.7
JA Richardson37137185
JP Behrendorff2112191.3
AM Hardie210161.5
LS Livingstone11150

Of the bowlers, I like the look of Jhye Richardson’s record best. I also think a case can be made for leaving out Abbott and/or Dwarshuis, especially if you think the Scorchers will win.

Table 6: Key player matchups – bowlers (career T20s, extracted from cricmetric.com)

Versus PlayerRunsWicketsEconSR
Jason Behrendorff
JM Vince29010.88
JR Philippe2215.7423
DP Hughes2208.25
MC Henriques12249
JC Silk2507.89
DT Christian1806.75
Jhye Richardson
JM Vince3216.430
JR Philippe38111.420
DP Hughes5517.3345
MC Henriques2427.589.5
JC Silk2916.2128
DT Christian81124
CR Brathwaite2143
SA Abbott8016
Sean Abbott
LS Livingstone106
JJ Roy1161
CT Bancroft29011.6
C Munro10010
JP Inglis909
MR Marsh3719.6523
AJ Turner7431212.3
JA Richardson1416.4613
Ben Dwarshuis
LS Livingstone111611
JJ Roy705.25
CT Bancroft1104.12
C Munro17017
JP Inglis2808.84
MR Marsh1208
AJ Turner2226.610
JA Richardson623.65

Verdict

We saw last round how pivotal the match result can be to SuperCoach scores. I think SuperCoaches should first consider how the final will play out, then delve into other factors, including player matchups.

This final should be a cracker, with arguably the best two teams in BBL history facing-off. The Sixers have home ground advantage and a last start win against the Scorchers.

However, I think the Scorchers will learn from the loss in the opening round of the finals to bounce back and claim BBL10 (sorry Thommo….).

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With this in mind, the matchups look good to me for Richardson (who I plan to captain) and Behrendorff in particular.

I’m also contemplating leaving out some or all of Philippe, Abbott and Dwarshuis. With only 22 players to choose from, I think it will be tricky to leave all of them out. Two out of three could be the play.

Thanks for reading and listening throughout the season. All the best for 2021 and we hope to see you back for the NRL season and then BBL11!

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