And so, we have one week left, and what a week for the Cooma Stallions – just 61 points shy of a potential $50,000 and SuperCoach glory.
By now, experienced SuperCoaches are used to the risk of players
being rested in the final round – but we’ve never seen the likes of this
There are SO many players down that around 25% of teams will be short at least one player this week – and many will be even worse off. I know I have 14 and no trades left…thank goodness I’m not in the top 10!
Like last week, this week’s article will focus on
quantifying the impact of the various TLT restings, injuries and suspensions so
that you can better understand how you might be impacted relative to others and
For those of you with trades – well done! For those without
– and I suspect that will be most people – good luck!
Meanwhile, I suspect we have several more twists in the tail
still to come. There are some interesting players lurking on benches and plenty
of rumours around, so keep an eye on late team changes.
I’ll once again share the overall player ownership tables
for those interested, but will focus my comments on the impact of players not
Quantifying the Carnage
Craig Bellamy and Ricky Stuart – two great coaches (and
great blokes) in real life – but two blokes who have turned SuperCoach grand
finals (and potentially the overall first place) into a lottery!
Oh well – we did flag this on the podcast a number of weeks
ago so it’s not like we couldn’t see this coming.
The table below sets out the percentage of teams ranked in
the top 10, top 100, top 500, top 1,000, top 10,000 and top 20,000 teams that
own each key player that are well owned – ranked by the players with the
highest level of ownership across the top 20,000 teams.
Cameron Smith, Cameron Munster and John Bateman are the
three most owned players not playing this week – and most leading teams own all
19 of the top 20 teams own Smith, 17 of the top 20 own
Munster and 16 of the top 20 own Bateman.
In that situation, at least everyone is impacted. It’s those
who own PODs like Dylan Edwards, Stephen Crichton, Nelson Asofa-Solomona and
Joseph Manu (each owned by 2 of the top 20) who would have been hurting most on
At least those who own Turbo (3 of the top 10), SJ (7 of the
top 20) and Fifita (3 of the top 20) knew that they were gone prior to TLT…
So, where does this leave teams this week? The table below sets out the number of teams with different numbers of players unavailable for selection this week.
Things can obviously get worse between now and then (e.g. someone
like Jazz being a late withdrawal) but as of today this is my best estimate.
As an example, there is one team in the top 10 with 11
players unavailable prior to trades this week. That happens to be the team
The leader currently has 10 players unavailable – so unless
they have two trades left they are playing short this week. Hardly ideal with
$50,000 on the line!
If any further big names get rested prior to game day –
which must be a possibility – then we will see a lot of teams in grand finals
or chasing top 10, top 100, top 1,000 etc struggling to field 16 let alone a full
VC looping and the dreaded AE disaster
As flagged last week, being short or having exactly 17 (or
even 18) players can lead to a dream opportunity to implement the VC loop.
As it turned out, this didn’t do much damage last week – no
big name really stood out with a monster score. But who knows what happens this
The VC loop is also a serious option for any teams with 18
or 19 players – which based on the table above could be a lot of teams.
The risk with the VC loop of course, is the dreaded
auto-emergency disaster – that guy on the bench who you never wanted to play
who comes on for five minutes and makes three tackles.
The table below sets out the ownership of various players
that are well owned and playing this week who most teams in grand finals or
seeking top 10 or overall glory would ideally not want to be playing. Some are
bigger risks than others.
Players ownership levels by position
For those interested, the tables below set out the latest
player ownership levels in each position.
Given we only have two weeks left and most trades will be restricted to emergency replacements this week, I won’t bother with the commentary, but they may provide you with the data you need to make one final POD move or team selection with one week to go.
Round 19 Captaincy Choices
Round 19 saw Kalyn
Ponga the most popular captain followed by Nathan Cleary. As it turned out, most of the popular
captaincy choices scored relatively similar – except of course the big POD move
in Turbo. I’m still hurting over that
With Teddy back
this week – but in a tough clash – the captaincy choice is going to be tough.
takes on the Bulldogs and will likely be a popular option – but could he be
rested early? What about someone like
Zac Lomax against a reserve grade Storm side?
No doubt lots of people will roll the dice so anything could happen from
Good luck again
to everyone in Round 20 – but in particular the Cooma Stallions in second place.
Bring it home Timmy!