Carnage! TLT has just turned the SuperCoach season on its
Just when I was thinking that teams looked so similar,
suddenly a host of the most popular players in the leading teams have not been named
to play in Round 13 and many teams (including mine) are scrambling to even pull
a side together.
From a personal perspective, I’ve got 11 players out this week meaning that even with two trades I will be at least one player short – and that’s with the Hammer as my 16th man. Trouble!
In fact, I’d drafted this article prior to TLT and the
general theme was that we all have such similar teams and how to find a POD to
help climb the rankings.
With so many guns out, I will instead look at how badly effected
teams are by TLT.
Let’s look at some of the key changes to team ownership by position and ranking zone after Round 12.
As per previous weeks, the table below sets out the
percentage of teams ranked in the top 100, top 500, top 1,000, top 10,000 and
top 20,000 teams that own each fullback and contrast that with the ownership
levels as per the SuperCoach site – again ordered by 5RA to see if we can find
any hidden gems and potential PODs.
Not surprisingly, FLB ownership levels are very similar to
last week. The only real change was that the remaining 1% of owners of Dylan
Edwards sold out and would appear to have traded up to Teddy.
I feel for Ryan Papenhuyzen owners. In what looked like a
dream matchup against the Bulldogs for their big POD, instead Papenhuyzen is
rested and owners are scrambling. Given all the other carnage I imagine most
owners will hold.
CTW and dual FLB/CTW
There were a few big movements in CTW ownership levels last
week – most notably a surge in ownership for David Nofoaluma.
Nofo’s ownership level amongst the top 20,000 teams
increased from 30% to 51% (and from 47% to 74% amongst the top 100 teams).
That is a huge increase for a guy so expensive. Fair enough
though. Personally I was a few thousand bucks short.
The other player whose ownership increased significantly was
Latrap Mitchell – with his ownership amongst the top 1,000 teams increasing
from 2% to 7%.
Personally I think that was a mistake – but if Adam Reynolds
is out and Latrap starts goal kicking again then he could be a much more
attractive POD option.
Mitch Aubusson also surged in ownership, with 6% of teams
owning the dual position veteran. Whilst he scored well last week, I can’t do
it myself. I’ve fallen for that trap in the past. Good luck to his new owners
The primary downgrade option during the week was Jaxson
Paulo, with his ownership increasing from 5% to 17%.
So who gave way?
Xavier Coates was once again the primary player sold with his
ownership amongst the top 20,000 falling from 30% to 9%.
In addition to Coates, ownership in Brett Morris fell from
8% to 1% and a quarter of Matt Ikuvalu’s owners took the cash and upgraded.
The other players sold off included Fanitesi Niu (-6%),
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (-4%), Tevita Funa (-4%), Tommy Talau (-3%) and Jake
With Bradman Best now injured, I’m expecting mass changes at
CTW this week. No doubt lots of teams will upgrade to Nofo and Lomax but that
arguably opens the door even more for a POD move.
In saying that, one week’s Maika Sivo could then turn
into…the next week’s Maika Sivo – so tread carefully.
I suspect the most popular option will be Kotoni Staggs. He’s
clearly a gun player and with the goal-kicking duties he has a high
Personally I think I will zag instead of Staggs though. Prior
to TLT, and with the Knights having a nice upcoming draw I was planning to
bring in Kurt Mann.
One day later and we find Blake Green at five-eighth and
multiple other guns not selected at all. I may just have to upgrade Bradman
Another week, and another week of consolidation of ownership
of the three gun halves.
Ownership in Shaun Johnson increased from 53% to 65% (95% in
the top 100 teams!) whilst ownership of Cameron Munster increased from 30% to
41% (63% in the top 100 teams).
Similar to last week, those increases were at the expense of
mid-rangers such as Jarome Luai (falling from 63% to 52% amongst the top 20,000
but from 52% to 30% in the top 100 teams) and George Williams (28% to 16%).
I think there are a few genuine POD options in the halves. I
gambled on Kyle Flanagan last week hoping the Chooks might put a cricket score
on the Titans but was disappointed with his score of 57. That pain has now been
doubled with news that Flanagan is dropped and I will be a player short!
No doubt some will go for Mitch Moses given his bargain
basement price and we know that someone like Cody Walker can get on a roll. In
any case, I’d suggest it is irresponsible to not have both Cleary and Johnson.
hope Ryan Matterson is OK health wise. With a history of bad concussions, the
70% of teams that still own him will be wondering whether it is time to
In fact, many
owners of Ryan cut their losses last week. Matterson’s ownership amongst the
top 100 teams reduced from 84% to 71%.
I think I
will be joining them this week – it is just too much money to be leaving on the
pine and he could be out for a while yet based on previous seasons.
player sold off last week was Angus Crichton, with his ownership level amongst
the top 20,000 teams falling from 17% to 8%.
As per my
comment last week, however, I can’t understand why his ownership isn’t closer
to zero. Who holds a player that expensive on the bench for so long?
Those who sold Matterson or Crichton zeroed in on a couple
of players. Cameron Murray’s ownership increased from 15% to 20% whilst Cameron
McInnes increased from 36% to 42%.
The most interesting move, however, was for John Bateman. 6%
of the top 100 teams (but just 1% of teams outside the top 100) made the early
move on Bateman.
They were well and truly rewarded with a score of 88 and I
suspect we will see plenty more teams move on Bateman this week. Watch this
The return of David Fifita will no doubt generate some
And let’s not forget Jazz Tevaga. The 2019 Supercoach weapon
is back and will be sure to attract fans – especially at hooker I suspect.
So Aiden Tolman has a higher 5RA than Payne Haas. How much
more does 2020 have to give? He’s even taking quick taps these days? Let that
be the last time that ‘quick’ and ‘Aiden Tolman’ are used in the same sentence
There was minimal movement last week in terms of the
ownership levels of various FRFs.
I do think there are a few POD options at FRF. AFB can pull
out a monster score and I’ve personally gambled on Sio Siua Taukeiaho.
Watching Junior Paulo last week though, he also has a high
ceiling for a FRF. I personally prefer all those guys to David Klemmer.
Big Klem just doesn’t have enough try scoring potential for
me. Josh Papalii is the other FRF who I think could go big at any time.
sooner did we all go and buy Cameron Smith but the GOAT gets injured – albeit a
In fact it is
just the second time in his career that Cameron Smith has failed to play longer
than 40 minutes in a match. That is remarkable.
84% of the
top 1,000 teams (and 93% of the top 100 teams) now own Cameron Smith so it will
be interesting to see what those teams do this week.
If that news
wasn’t enough, we then get stung with the news that Harry Grant is also out
this week meaning a huge number of teams are without a hooker at present.
To quantify that, 86 of the top 100 teams have Smith and Grant as their hookers. Of the remaining 14, 13 have Damien Cook and 1 has Cameron McInnes at hooker.
When we add
Chris Randall to the mix, 81% of the top 500, 79% of the top 1,000, 75% of the
top 5,000 and 69% of the top 20,000 teams currently have no hooker available
means we now get some more variation – there are plenty of viable options for
Any of Damien
Cook, Api Koroisau and Jazz Tevaga will be popular trade in targets, whilst
some other teams may move Cam McInnes into HOK and bring in a 2RF or the likes
of Cameron Munster instead.
I note that
Brandon Smith is also one of the most popular players traded in this week so we
could have a very different picture at HOK this time next week.
Round 12 Captaincy Choices
With a match
up against the Titans, not surprisingly, almost all of the leading teams who
own Teddy went with him as captain.
score of 80 is very acceptable, I suspect we were all hoping for more – or more
accurately, were too scared to not captain him in case he scored way more.
other captaincy choice of note this week amongst the leading teams was Cameron
4% of the top
1,000 and 8% of the top 20,000 teams captained Smith and were left lamenting
when he left the field after scoring a try last Sunday. Unlucky..
week will see a few teams take on Teddy. Those who are short (like me) at least
have a free shot at the VC loop with him so curiously will probably be death
riding him hoping to have an advantage over those who have to go the straight
He looks the
obvious captain yet again. Owners of Cameron Munster will be licking their lips
at the prospect of taking on the Bulldogs and the likes of Damien Cook, Cameron
Murray and even Latrap could see some admirers taking on the Broncos.
And with Lolo scoring 109 last week and taking on the Titans this week he will be sure to attract some attention.
With so many
players out, I thought it would be interesting to analyse how badly teams are
effected. Bear in mind that these numbers are pre-trades this week.
What we see
is that on average, teams have 7 players unavailable for selection this
common players unavailable (in order) are Harry Grant, Cameron Smith, Ryan
Matterson, Bradman Best, Beau Fermor and Brayden Williame.
18 of the top
1,000 teams and 216 of the top 10,000 teams have at least 11 players out
meaning that they will be running out with a maximum of 16 players on the
field. Unfortunately, I’m one of them!
table doesn’t show, however, is some of the obscure players that teams will be
trotting out in their 17s to field a side.
For me, the
only guy I’m concerned about is The Hammer – but at least he is up against the
Titans so he has a chance of scoring.
A lot of
other teams will be hoping that fringe players like Tyrell Fuimaono, Jaxson
Paulo, Andrew Davey, Tom Eisenhuth, Jamayne Taunoa-Brown, Billy Walters, Keaon
Koloamatangi and Jake Averillo can deliver this week.
I’ll be death
riding all of them (apart from my Bulldog Averillo!).
Good luck to
everyone again in Round 13 – many of us are going to need it!
For those who want to get these stats on Twitter, feel free to follow me here @adamdriussi