Our newest contributor Adam Driussi is here to deliver SC Playbook readers with a comprehensive breakdown of key statistics to help you gain an invaluable insight into edging the game’s top ranked players.
Adam is the Co-Founder and CEO of the largest data analytics firm in Australia (Quantium) and is also a SuperCoach and Bulldogs tragic…three times top 100 finisher including 32nd last year.
Wow, what a week of SuperCoach carnage. It felt like every time I looked another
player of mine went down. Not to mention some of the scores of those players
who did play!
Given injuries are so topical, much of my commentary this
week will focus on a deep dive on the player ownership levels of players who we
already know are unavailable heading into Round 8. It’s a tough read for some
As per last week, the table below sets out the percentage of
teams ranked in the top 100, top 500, top 1,000, top 10,000 and top 20,000
teams that own each fullback and contrast that with the ownership levels as per
the SuperCoach site.
I’ve now ordered the tables by overall ownership levels
according to the SuperCoach site.
Well who knew that those who held onto Ryan Papenhuyzen
would be rewarded for their patience?
Last week just 4% of the top 1,000 teams owned Papenhuyzen
and 0% of the top 100.
A monster performance in a very difficult week now sees 10
of the top 100 teams and 14% of the top 1,000 teams owning him.
With Turbo going down prior to last week, we’ve seen a huge
increase in player ownership levels for Kalyn Ponga amongst the top ranked
Unfortunately, we are now in the position where the vast
majority of the higher ranked teams have Teddy and Ponga – meaning it’s
difficult to run a POD other than Papenhuyzen.
In what shaped to be a really interesting position, it now
looks pretty boring in terms of the ability to differentiate.
On the injury and suspensions front, RTS joins Turbo,
Valentine Holmes and Caleb Aekins on the sideline this week – although he is
actually owned by almost none of the top 20,000 teams anyway.
CTW and dual FLB/CTW
What a nightmare week at CTW. Bradman Best’s COVID dramas
meant that 99% of the top 20,000 teams were immediately down one CTW.
What followed though was ridiculous. Between Best, Wiliame,
Mansour, Staggs, Capewell and lots of teams stashing nuffs at CTW, many teams
were left scrambling to field 4 CTWs.
In fact, over 25% of the top 1,000 teams were one CTW short
heading into last week pre-trades and a further 5% were 2 or 3 CTW’s
If that wasn’t enough, we then had the most popular trade in
target, Xavier Coates, flop with 9 points. Coates is now owned by over a third
of the top 20,000 teams. Good luck..
The news wasn’t that much better for those teams who could
scrape together a fourth CTW prior to trades last week.
The overly popular Latrap (yes, I’m a happy non-owner) had a
shocker with 9, only to be outdone by Ben Hampton’s 5, Jamayne Isaako’s 3 and
Will Hopoate’s 2.
Meanwhile, David Nofoaluma continued to pile on the pain for
those of us without him and Isaah Yeo, Zac Lomax and the Hammer pleased the 65%
plus of teams that own each of them.
Not surprisingly, owning Nofoaluma (who is now the highest
scoring player this year) continues to be one of the strongest predictors of
current overall ranking. Hats off to
those who forked out the big dollars at the start of the year.
Our readers from last week will recall that Nathan Cleary
was owned by just 15% of the top 1,000 teams – with Mitchell Moses owned by
over 70%. What a difference a week
Cleary’s 99 together with Moses’ injury impacted 18 means
that teams owning Cleary enjoyed a huge surge in the rankings.
To put it in perspective, going into last round, the team
ranked 1000th was on 6,946 points.
The team 81 points behind (i.e. the difference between
owning Cleary and Moses this week) was 2,093rd – so owning Clearly
this week resulted in a ranking boost of over 1,000 places for those anywhere
near the top few thousand.
The carnage continued in the halves. Moses going down
impacts 54% of the top 1,000 teams and the 32% who also own Cameron Munster are
suddenly struggling to field a team this week.
Add to that the 40%+ of teams still carrying Billy Walters
and you have a lot going on here.
In fact, we can quantify it.
Across almost all rank bands the data is consistent.
83% of teams have at least one of Moses or Munster. A third
of teams have Moses and Munster, whilst a further 7% of teams have Moses,
Munster and Walters. Ouch.
Unfortunately, I suspect that the key outcome will be even
less differentiation in the ownership of halves.
Moses owners will surely flock to Cleary almost immediately
and Munster owners will most likely flock to Shaun Johnson.
Between FLB and the halves I suspect a lot of us will be
running with the Teddy, Ponga, Cleary and SJ combo – with the likes of Jarome Luai,
George Williams and Scott Drinkwater sitting in the wings in case of
This opens the door up for those keen to select a POD such
as Cody Walker (already a popular POD move for 9 of the top 100 teams), DCE,
Luke Keary or Kyle Flanagan – or for those silly enough to still think that
Anthony Milford can produce the form of 2014-2017.
As we observed last week, along with CTW, 2RF is the other
position that largely dictates the ranking of teams to date.
Owning Ryan Matterson, Cam McInnes and Angus Crichton
instead of the likes of Jurbo, Cameron Murray or Viliame Kikau have proved
crucial to date.
I note this week that around 7% of teams have signed up to
the TPJ rollercoaster. As an owner throughout much of last year I wish you the
best of luck.
At his best he can be a SuperCoach weapon – but personally I
don’t think he delivers that enough to rely on him – not to mention the
I’ve included a few additional players this week to
highlight some genuine POD options.
Players like Tohu Harris, JFH, Curtis Sironen and Nathan
Brown have very low levels of ownership compared to their five round
Most of us probably have bigger issues to fix in our squads
this week – but you could do worse than upgrading the likes of Leilua, Hess,
Carrigan etc to one of these guys in coming weeks as a POD move.
Put it this way – depending on your rank, bringing in guys
like Ryan Matterson or McInnes instead is not going to see you surge up the
Finally, whilst 12% of overall teams supposedly own Victor
Radley, less than 2% of the top 20,000 teams are impacted by his season ending
ACL injury. I will miss watching his hits though – what a player.
As noted last
week, FRF is another position which hasn’t yet had a huge impact on
We are all
running with Payne Haas and none of the second FRF options have particularly
shot the lights out relative to price.
Alex Twal was
the exception but his injury has seen mass trade outs and at least now we have
some variation going forward.
Horsburgh’s season ending injury is a blow not just to Big Red, but to the 12%
of teams in the top 100 and 9% of teams in the top 20,000 who currently have
I’ve added a
few serious POD options to the table this week. AFB is owned by just 1% of the
top 20,000 teams and Sio Siua Taukeiaho is owned by less than 1%.
As we saw
last weekend, on their day these guys can be SuperCoach weapons and offer a
serious alternative to the likes of Klemmer and Saifiti.
has attracted interest amongst the leading teams after Alex Twal’s injury.
How sick are
Melbourne? It’s not good enough that they have the greatest hooker of all time
in their squad along with the Kiwi hooker as a backup, but they also have Harry
Grant in their squad going forward.
This kid is a
freak and unfortunately this week I had to watch him do it against my beloved
Going forward, I suspect we will see teams hold Harry, and gradually trade Api Koroisau up to a premium hooker in either Cameron Smith or Damien Cook.
Already we can see the top 100 teams are more likely to have Cameron Smith which makes sense given he is the third highest scoring player overall this season.
Round 7 Captaincy Choices
the table below shows that the most misleading statistic on the SuperCoach
website is the captain’s choice stat – frankly it should just be ignored.
The range in
captaincy choices amongst the top 50 and 100 teams this week was really
surprisingly, Kalyn Ponga dominated and the 66% of top 50 teams who had him
would have been sweating until he at least jagged a late try-assist.
a further 16% went with Payne Haas to score big against the Titans – this
continues the theme of leading teams trying to find a captaincy option against
but it may soon switch to looking for captaincy choices against the Broncos..
that none of the top 50 teams went with Jason Taumalolo as captain. Maybe we
are getting too cute here – the guy is a freak no matter who he plays.
thing we can do this week which is pretty cool is quantify how many teams
utilised the VC loop.
just 4% of the top 100 teams looped this week. This is best seen in the table
above as ‘Other’ – just ignore it for the overall stats though since I assume
that is zombie teams who don’t have a captain as opposed to teams looping.
I thought it
might be more this week with so many teams having just 17 or 18 players it was
a real option. I guess those who looped Papenhuyzen or Cleary would be pretty
Note that the
top 2 teams had Ryan Matterson and Harry Grant as captain so good to see that
they are not afraid to be different!
everyone for your feedback on the article last week. It was good to see that
people found the stats interesting and valuable. I’ll keep posting regular
articles and thinking through other ways we can look at the data.